The AFB AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimate Index

  • Posted: 03 July 2011 02:44 PM

    The AFB AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimate Index

    The companion to The AFB AAPL FQ3 Estimate Index has now been published.

    Thank you to the 30 active AFB members who submitted estimates for this quarter’s indexes.

    [Edited to change topic type to normal]

    [ Edited: 03 July 2011 07:43 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 06:04 PM #1

    I feel honored to be at the same EPS as Deagol.  Daniel, I am rooting for you to be right. :-D

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  • Posted: 03 July 2011 07:44 PM #2

    With 30 participants in the indexes we do have interesting outcomes.

         
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    Posted: 03 July 2011 07:53 PM #3

    I’m rooting for PurpleApple. smile  Someone had to make a call for $7+ EPS, so hats off to you!

    I gotta say, these numbers look really bunched together despite the big increase in participants.

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  • Posted: 03 July 2011 10:03 PM #4

    Mav,

    I think I will make it if we don’t get docked for the Nokia settlement. But for that, I think we end up over 7.0. I was within a penny or two for the last quarter. smile

    PA

         
  • Posted: 03 July 2011 11:58 PM #5

    PurpleApple - 04 July 2011 01:03 AM

    Mav,

    I think I will make it if we don’t get docked for the Nokia settlement. But for that, I think we end up over 7.0. I was within a penny or two for the last quarter. smile

    PA

    Apple reports $7.00+ and we’re going to see significant ISM expansion over the next three months.

    I’d gladly be wrong if you’re right.

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    Posted: 04 July 2011 12:23 AM #6

    PurpleApple - 04 July 2011 01:03 AM

    I was within a penny or two for the last quarter. smile

    3 cents off, actually.

    2011 Q2 ranking of AFB estimates vs actual

    post by me

    1. (me)
    2. Turley Muller
    3. Horace Dediu
    4. Purple Apple
    5. Chas
    6. pats
    7. westech
    8. Jeff Fosberg
    9. Daniel Tello
    10. Andy Zaky
    11. Robert Paul Leitao

    Last time, I had several kinds of sales errors.  iPhone sales too high, iPad too high for all of us, gross margin percent too low.

         
  • Posted: 04 July 2011 02:47 AM #7

    Gregg Thurman - 04 July 2011 02:58 AM
    PurpleApple - 04 July 2011 01:03 AM

    Mav,

    I think I will make it if we don’t get docked for the Nokia settlement. But for that, I think we end up over 7.0. I was within a penny or two for the last quarter. smile

    PA

    Apple reports $7.00+ and we’re going to see significant ISM expansion over the next three months.

    I’d gladly be wrong if you’re right.

    $7 would be 100% eps growth. I’ll take 90% and look forward to a robust September quarter.

         
  • Posted: 04 July 2011 08:21 PM #8

    The index is now available on Seeking Alpha.

    Good work everyone. I’m doing my best to make you all famous.  grin

         
  • Posted: 05 July 2011 02:03 PM #9

    Anyone surprised by the average unit sales estimates?

         
  • Posted: 05 July 2011 07:05 PM #10

    This index is featured today in a post at Apple 2.0.

         
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    Posted: 05 July 2011 07:08 PM #11

    DawnTreader - 05 July 2011 05:03 PM

    Anyone surprised by the average unit sales estimates?

    The iOS devices sales number of 200,000,000 mentioned at the WWDC keynote opening is suspicious.  Either its a major sandbag or our numbers are too high.

         
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    Posted: 05 July 2011 07:12 PM #12

    DawnTreader - 05 July 2011 05:03 PM

    Anyone surprised by the average unit sales estimates?


    Yes, I am surprised the ipad number is so high. I would have thought that anything over 8 would be out of the question. I am 1 mil over on iphone and 1 mil under on ipad, that is a wash in my book considering their ASP’s

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  • Posted: 05 July 2011 07:17 PM #13

    DawnTreader - 05 July 2011 05:03 PM

    Anyone surprised by the average unit sales estimates?

    No.  We won’t have iPhone transition to worry about this quarter (assuming late September launch), and Cook was very clear when he stated they had the “mother of all [iPad] backlogs”.

    The issue is going to be whether Apple can manufacture enough to address that backlog, and the new markets Apple has opened for the iPad.

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    Posted: 05 July 2011 07:34 PM #14

    Kinda surprised.  People are a little more bullish on Mac, very bearish on iPod, and actually pretty bullish on iPhone.  Quite surprised to see mbeauch at the same iPhone number as me.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 05 July 2011 07:40 PM #15

    Mav - 05 July 2011 10:34 PM

    Kinda surprised.  People are a little more bullish on Mac, very bearish on iPod, and actually pretty bullish on iPhone.  Quite surprised to see mbeauch at the same iPhone number as me.


    There was no transition for the qtr (told ya so tongue laugh ), so there was no reason for Apple to cut production. I still believe the 3Gs is a big seller and with the addition of the white phone and VZ, I feel pretty comfortable with my number. What I am terribly uncomfortable with is Horace’s iphone number. :bugeyed:  I would really like to hear why he sees such a big decline from the previous qtr.

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