The AFB AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimate Index

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    Posted: 05 July 2011 09:56 PM #16

    mbeauch - 05 July 2011 10:40 PM

    What I am terribly uncomfortable with is Horace’s iphone number. :bugeyed:  I would really like to hear why he sees such a big decline from the previous qtr.

    So would I.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 05 July 2011 10:13 PM #17

    Mav - 06 July 2011 12:56 AM
    mbeauch - 05 July 2011 10:40 PM

    What I am terribly uncomfortable with is Horace’s iphone number. :bugeyed:  I would really like to hear why he sees such a big decline from the previous qtr.

    So would I.

    I’m not worried.

         
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    Posted: 05 July 2011 10:18 PM #18

    Me neither - I think Verizon is a semi-effective proxy for how an “old phone” can sell when “everyone” knows about iPhone 5 just around the corner, and adding in two India carriers and two South Korea carriers alone would be enough to at least stem the slowdown of iPhone sales.  Meanwhile, VeriPhone sales might actually be around 3M this quarter, which should be more than enough to lead the US market to a sequential uptick in iPhone sales unless AT&T iPhone sales really fell off the map.  Of course there’s the white iPhone too.

    Still, it’d be nice to hear asymco’s take.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 05 July 2011 11:55 PM #19

    There are two big questions about the June quarter iPhone number:

    1. How much did Apple work down the beginning channel inventory before the end of the June quarter

    2. When did/will the iPhone manufacturing changeover begin?

    The further into the September quarter before the iPhone release date announcement the better the June quarter numbers.

    Few of us see a sequential unit sales gain and the first full quarter of sales on the iPhone network does provide a boost to sales.

         
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    Posted: 06 July 2011 12:19 AM #20

    DawnTreader - 06 July 2011 02:55 AM

    There are two big questions about the June quarter iPhone number:

    1. How much did Apple work down the beginning channel inventory before the end of the June quarter

    2. When did/will the iPhone manufacturing changeover begin?

    The further into the September quarter before the iPhone release date announcement the better the June quarter numbers.

    Few of us see a sequential unit sales gain and the first full quarter of sales on the iPhone network does provide a boost to sales.

    Please explain #1?

    Wouldn’t channel inventory be about the same at the beginning and end of the quarter?

      thanks
        JohnG

         
  • Posted: 06 July 2011 08:51 AM #21

    DawnTreader - 03 July 2011 05:44 PM

    The AFB AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimate Index

    The companion to The AFB AAPL FQ3 Estimate Index has now been published.

    Thank you to the 30 active AFB members who submitted estimates for this quarter’s indexes.

    [Edited to change topic type to normal]

    Are the AFB Analysts too conservative this quarter?  Usually they are much higher than others, but pretty close to reality.  I’ve seen some numbers tossed around in the news about 20+ million iPhones, but none of the AFB team has over 19 mil.  I’ve also seen higher iPad numbers being floated in the news too.  Are we in for a bigger blowout than even the AFB’ers can predict?

         
  • Posted: 06 July 2011 01:26 PM #22

    johnG - 06 July 2011 03:19 AM
    DawnTreader - 06 July 2011 02:55 AM

    There are two big questions about the June quarter iPhone number:

    1. How much did Apple work down the beginning channel inventory before the end of the June quarter

    2. When did/will the iPhone manufacturing changeover begin?

    The further into the September quarter before the iPhone release date announcement the better the June quarter numbers.

    Few of us see a sequential unit sales gain and the first full quarter of sales on the iPhone network does provide a boost to sales.

    Please explain #1?

    Wouldn’t channel inventory be about the same at the beginning and end of the quarter?

      thanks
        JohnG

    No. For example, in the June quarter last year Apple more iPhones were sold to consumers than Apple reported as sold because the company cleared the global channel of supply ahead of the release of the iPhone at the end of the quarter.

    Depending on the release date of the iPhone 5 and the manufacturing changeover for the new model, Apple may have chosen to reduce shipments.

    Apple reports sales when ownership changes hands, not necessarily when the device is purchased by the consumer.