Last Minute Chickens, AAPL Fiscal Q3 2011 Edition

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    Posted: 14 July 2011 06:43 PM

    Hey, this looks familiar.  Weren’t we around 360…oh yeah, about five months ago.  Fun times since then.

    But this time, things might be different!  Maybe!  Valuation-wise, AAPL is bargain-priced next to lesser-performing competition (check out how GOOG’s doing AH with inferior revs and earnings growth), and if the AFB consensus estimates are correct, we’ll be looking at a very good quarter for Apple even without iPhone 5.

    So what’s everybody doing?  Getting trades out because of earnings uncertainty?  Getting a little stupid and putting some chips on “green”?  Getting really, really stupid and putting some chips on “green by next Friday, or else”?

    Don’t have a clue how you’ll play AAPL earnings?  Even better! LOL

    Hate trading?  Well, that’s fine, but your voice might get drowned out by the rest of us chickens…or gunslingers…or gunslinging…chickens.

    With earnings in three trading days, the coop is now open for business!

    [ Edited: 15 July 2011 02:39 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 14 July 2011 07:03 PM #1

    Staying put mostly.  My 70 JAN 12 370s calls went from $13 (where I bought most of them) to ~$25 right now. I’m betting on a 5-10% jump a week after earnings, close to $400 territory, which should move them into ~$45 territory.

    [ Edited: 15 July 2011 03:28 PM by mjuarez ]      
  • Posted: 15 July 2011 02:29 AM #2

    Having been tarred and feathered the past 4 months, this gunslinger is now a chicken with a gun.  May buy weekly calls.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2011 04:30 AM #3

    still holding 300 Jan 12 340’s calls , a few Jan12 260 ‘s , holding apple common bought in 2008 at 80 $ , I wanna see lovely All time Highs and an Implied volatility going over 30 % :D

    So i can sleep like a baby on tuesday night smile

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    “The market can remain irrational long than you and I can remain solvent ... ” Keynes

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2011 09:31 AM #4

    I’m a gun-slinging chicken! smile

    Not holding anything short-term for longer than an hour.  A well-timed day trade scalp of 25% suits me perfectly.  I’ve compressed my pre-earnings anxiety to accompany AAPL’s compressed PE. smile

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2011 05:58 PM #5

    Hmm.  Well, I guess weekly calls just got a little more expensive than I’d expected, though AAPL 365 doesn’t activate my contingency plan (read: panic buying) just yet.

    As long as Monday doesn’t see AAPL take off, I’ll probably pick up some weekly calls on Tuesday.  And be prepared to lose it all.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 16 July 2011 05:34 PM #6

    The other Friday when AAPL hit $360 I closed all calls but some Jan 2013 $330 strike price LEAPS.

    This week I opened a Jan 2013 $370 position on Wednesday and a Jan 2012 $370 position.  Still higher cash than usual, and I will probably stand pat where I am through earnings. I am still quite nervous about the debt ceiling thing.  If AAPL gets a good positive move on earnings, I may close the Jan 2012 $370’s for a nice gain and stay with that until the debt ceiling issue is resolved.

    On the TA side, a guy I read on SI says - well, here is the link

    http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=27496739

         
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    Posted: 16 July 2011 06:58 PM #7

    Mav, You won’t be getting any cheap weekly options this week. That s unless you shoot for 400+.  tongue laugh

    Roni, I like your guy, simply stated so someone like me can even understand.  tongue laugh   This also reinforces what I posted yesterday about the weekly MACD crossing over. Next couple of months should be very rewarding. :innocent:

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
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    Posted: 16 July 2011 08:32 PM #8

    I’m slinging chickens.

    Holding my Jan12 260s and 300s. May sell some Aug 390 calls against them, if we hit new ATH before earnings while volatility is still high.

    On Friday I sold my Jan12 340s for the same thing I paid for them… 4 months ago. Unfortunately, this was about 3pm just before the AAPL rocket launched. Ouch.

    I’m looking at some Jan12 395/400 bull call spreads, currently around $1.70. Might start easing in if there’s any pullback Monday or Tuesday.

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