Apple 2.0: FQ3 Mac Unit Sales Estimates

  • Posted: 14 July 2011 08:09 PM

    Apple 2.0 has posted the June quarter Mac unit sales estimates.

    Let’s get some comments posted over at Apple 2.0. It’s not everyday AFB member names are up in lights.

    [ Edited: 15 July 2011 12:54 AM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 15 July 2011 12:25 AM #1

    DT - correction note - “Mac Unit” not “Ma Unit”.  smile

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  • Posted: 15 July 2011 12:54 AM #2

    Mav - 15 July 2011 03:25 AM

    DT - correction note - “Mac Unit” not “Ma Unit”.  smile

    Thanks. I typed that on a Windows PC.  :wink:

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2011 12:59 AM #3

    Sure, blame the pen.

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  • Posted: 15 July 2011 01:10 AM #4

    mbeauch - 15 July 2011 03:59 AM

    Sure, blame the pen.

    You mean the stylus? Nah. I never went for the MSFT approach.  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2011 01:11 AM #5

    Back on topic: No matter how you write it, the Mac numbers for the quarter will be superb.

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2011 01:23 AM #6

    DawnTreader - 15 July 2011 04:11 AM

    Back on topic: No matter how you write it, the Mac numbers for the quarter will be superb.

    I’m estimating 4.15m which while a good # is NOT blowout level. Would have been a lot higher had Apple chosen to release the MBA when it was ready and not wait for Lion.

      JohnG

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2011 01:33 AM #7

    I think there’s enough momentum with the MacBook Pros and iMac and outside-US Mac growth to push the YOY growth rate to the mid-20s.

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    Posted: 15 July 2011 01:48 AM #8

    adamthompson3232 - 15 July 2011 04:27 AM

    I think with the 8M+ iPad sales we are going to start to see the halo effect for Mac. I am thinking we are going to see Mac growth begin to accelerate relative to global PC trends for the next year or two as iPhone and iPad team up to create the mother of all halos.

    Seriously, does anyone see anything wrong with Macs having constant growth in the mid-20s, perhaps settling into the high 10s in later years? 

    The salient point:  It looks like Macs will continue outgrowing PCs…and actually growing…for years to come.  Macs may be less sexy than iOS devices, but Macs aren’t going anywhere in relevance and importance to Apple’s bottom line.

    How do you actually win the PC wars while everyone else keeps saying you lost?  By being a Mac.

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    Posted: 15 July 2011 02:33 AM #9

    If you’re right (and I gotta say, the MBA’s _apparent_ success has surprised me), I expect some uptick in YOY growth at the “expense” of a couple tens of dollars of ASP here and there.

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  • Posted: 15 July 2011 10:59 AM #10

    Three things:

    1) The Windows monopoly is losing its grip. Why did Windows have a monopoly? Because their software ran on most every computer; because most every application ran on their software; because most everybody was familiar with their operating system.

    If you buy a phone or a tablet - any phone or tablet - is it compatible with Windows? No. Does it have more software than Windows? Yes. Is it easier to use than Windows? Yes.

    All the things that made Windows a monopoly are disappearing - and disappearing fast.

    2) If you own an iPod Touch, an iPhone or an iPad are you going to buy a Mac or a PC? With a Mac you get:

    - Same consistent and familiar interface.
    - Same iTunes and Apps.
    - iCloud

    I rest my case.

    3) The MacBook Air is the coolest computer on the planet. It rivals the iPad for sexiness and utility. With an update expected in a few days, expect back-to-school and holiday sales of the MacBook Air to go through the roof.

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2011 05:30 PM #11

    FalKirk - in fairness, you can get a few Apple apps on Windows (iTunes, Safari, QuickTime), and iCloud DOES work with Windows Vista/7 (though maybe not as well).

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  • Posted: 15 July 2011 06:09 PM #12

    A quick analysis shows 9 of the top 13 analysts last quarter in predicting Apple numbers post here on AFB.  Anybody predicting under 4.0 M Macs this quarter ranked 22nd or lower last quarter.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2011 06:15 PM #13

    Mav - 15 July 2011 08:30 PM

    FalKirk - in fairness, you can get a few Apple apps on Windows (iTunes, Safari, QuickTime), and iCloud DOES work with Windows Vista/7 (though maybe not as well).

    I’m sorry, but I’m missing your point. I’ll accept the blame.

    What I was trying to say was that Microsoft Windows had a monopoly because most everything ran on Windows. Your examples of Mac programs that run on Windows only enhances that point.

    As for iCloud running on PCs, I see your point, but I think that it’s mostly to Apple’s benefit. iCloud is useless if you have only one device. It’s only useful if you have serval iCloud devices. I suspect that iCloud will encourage many PC owners to buy iPod Touchs, iPhones and iPads, but I doubt very much if iCloud will encourage too many iPod Touch, iPhone and iPad owners to purchase PCs.

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2011 06:20 PM #14

    Please do.  wink

    I just took your comment literally:

    FalKirk - 15 July 2011 01:59 PM

    Three things:

    2) If you own an iPod Touch, an iPhone or an iPad are you going to buy a Mac or a PC? With a Mac you get:

    - Same consistent and familiar interface.
    - Same iTunes and Apps.
    - iCloud

    I rest my case.

    The Mac has its advantages, of course.  But, since Apple continues to have its apps and now even its services play nice with Windows, Apple won’t mind too much if a PC user says, “y’know what, time to get an iPad or ditch my phone for an iPhone, because even iOS 5 will work great with my PC.”

    I agree, the sea change is coming and only Apple is ready to catch the wave.  It’s gonna be a fun next few years and Lion will make some impressive progress against Windows.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2011 06:45 PM #15

    Mav - 15 July 2011 09:20 PM

    But, since Apple continues to have its apps and now even its services play nice with Windows, Apple won’t mind too much if a PC user says, “y’know what, time to get an iPad or ditch my phone for an iPhone, because even iOS 5 will work great with my PC.”

    I feel like we’re having a parallel conversation. Your responses don’t seem related to my posts. As I said, I’ll accept the blame. Clearly there is a disconnect here.

    I did just want to add on your point above, that what Microsoft is trying to do with the Windows 8 tablet is to create a tablet that is 100% compatible with their desktop operating system. They don’t want to create a tablet that “plays nice” with their desktop OS. They want to create a tablet that IS their desktop OS.