The AFB Member Price Target Index and June Quarter Results

  • Posted: 17 July 2011 04:29 PM

    On Friday AAPL set a new all-time high of $364.92 and June quarter results are due after market’s close on Tuesday.

    The AFB member price target index has a target of $397 for August 1st.

    It looks like the members are pretty much on track with the consensus estimate and an anticipated strong market response to the June quarter results.

         
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    Posted: 17 July 2011 05:47 PM #1

    I dunno.  Sadly my target prices will probably be proven too high once again, primarily due to no friggin’ iPhone 5, so I expect this final run on the AFB/Posts at Eventide list to end on a sour note (though I hold out a shred of hope that my targets farther out will be somewhat validated). 

    It’s funny how the closer I get to earnings, the less certain I feel.  Just…two more…days!

    Btw DT, are you also making this the Q3 results discussion thread for Tuesday?

    [ Edited: 17 July 2011 05:52 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 17 July 2011 05:52 PM #2

    Mav - 17 July 2011 08:47 PM

    I dunno.  Sadly my target prices will probably be proven too high once again, primarily due to no friggin’ iPhone 5, so I expect this final run on the AFB/Posts at Eventide list to end on a sour note (though I hold out a shred of hope that my targets farther out will be somewhat validated). 

    It’s funny how the closer I get to earnings, the less certain I feel.  Just…two more…days!

    Fear not. The pending iPhone 5 announcement will be another share price catalyst. Better for the news to come in steps and stages. With no iPhone shortages in the first half of July it suggests there was ample ending channel inventory at the end of the June quarter than that’s bullish for Tuesday’s numbers. There will be a full quarter of iPhone shipments in the June numbers.

         
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    Posted: 17 July 2011 05:55 PM #3

    My conviction tells me a sequential increase in iPhone sales was possible for fiscal Q3.  My sense of the smartphone business and some residual conservatism when preparing my estimates prevented me from going out too far on a limb.  Also, Tim Cook didn’t say, “we could have sold more” or “we look forward to expanding iPhone’s presence” - I took the supply/demand balance comment to mean 18.65 million is the highest number we’ll see until iPhone 5.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 17 July 2011 06:36 PM #4

    DawnTreader - 17 July 2011 07:29 PM

    On Friday AAPL set a new all-time high of $364.92 and June quarter results are due after market’s close on Tuesday.

    The AFB member price target index has a target of $397 for August 1st.

    It looks like the members are pretty much on track with the consensus estimate and an anticipated strong market response to the June quarter results.

    What was the price target for near the end of the previous quarter?

    thanks

    Ron