AAPL Estimates: Why The Bloggers Get It And The Pros Are Left Behind

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    Posted: 19 July 2011 04:33 PM #46

    Let’s look at this this way.

    Can you live AAPL being reasonably valued just _before_ earnings?

    If yes, maybe all we have to do is shift our expectations a little.  WS _cannot_ have its price targets any lower.

    Forget Cramer’s wild…uh…gyrations…and the financial talking heads and bloggers.  Fundamentals will continue to drive this stock even if nothing else will.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 19 July 2011 09:30 PM #47

    adamthompson3232 - 19 July 2011 03:25 AM

    Does anyone know Turley? Can you reach out to him and ask him for an explanation??? Would love to hear his thinking. It looks like he increased his gross margin estimate but I can’t remember all his old estimates.

    Yeah I got some figure from my BBY source over the weekend. I hadn’t been getting any for the last several months because he was out of the office on medical leave. When I saw them, I immediately knew iPhone sales were going to be huge. The month of June was huge, and May better than April, so the trend was accelerating, not slowing down. In addition, the 3GS at AT&T was very solid, again with June being the top month since beginning of the year. Add in the White iPhone, full Q of VZ sales, and carrier expansion, it would be impossible for iPhone sales not to be astounding that’s why I upped them by 1M. I was thinking more, but the resulting Rev & EPS figure was so high I thought it was impossible Apple would beat guidance by that much. So I was still tempered. Higher iPhone units pulled up my GM estimate too. I’m guessing that even mgmt didn’t foresee the continued strength and acceleration occurring in the later portion of the quarter.

    Adam, if you ever need to reach out to me, email me turleymuller at me.com for the fastest response

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    Financial Alchemist

         
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    Posted: 19 July 2011 09:36 PM #48

    turleymuller - 20 July 2011 12:30 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 19 July 2011 03:25 AM

    Does anyone know Turley? Can you reach out to him and ask him for an explanation??? Would love to hear his thinking. It looks like he increased his gross margin estimate but I can’t remember all his old estimates.

    Yeah I got some figure from my BBY source over the weekend. I hadn’t been getting any for the last several months because he was out of the office on medical leave. When I saw them, I immediately knew iPhone sales were going to be huge. The month of June was huge, and May better than April, so the trend was accelerating, not slowing down. In addition, the 3GS at AT&T was very solid, again with June being the top month since beginning of the year. Add in the White iPhone, full Q of VZ sales, and carrier expansion, it would be impossible for iPhone sales not to be astounding that’s why I upped them by 1M. I was thinking more, but the resulting Rev & EPS figure was so high I thought it was impossible Apple would beat guidance by that much. So I was still tempered. Higher iPhone units pulled up my GM estimate too. I’m guessing that even mgmt didn’t foresee the continued strength and acceleration occurring in the later portion of the quarter.

    Adam, if you ever need to reach out to me, email me turleymuller at me.com for the fastest

    response

    Turley,

    I’ve appreciated your insights and analysis for years.

    What is your thinking on China Mobile/other carrier impact for Q4?

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 19 July 2011 10:00 PM #49

    Red shirted ensign - 20 July 2011 12:36 AM
    turleymuller - 20 July 2011 12:30 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 19 July 2011 03:25 AM

    Does anyone know Turley? Can you reach out to him and ask him for an explanation??? Would love to hear his thinking. It looks like he increased his gross margin estimate but I can’t remember all his old estimates.

    Yeah I got some figure from my BBY source over the weekend. I hadn’t been getting any for the last several months because he was out of the office on medical leave. When I saw them, I immediately knew iPhone sales were going to be huge. The month of June was huge, and May better than April, so the trend was accelerating, not slowing down. In addition, the 3GS at AT&T was very solid, again with June being the top month since beginning of the year. Add in the White iPhone, full Q of VZ sales, and carrier expansion, it would be impossible for iPhone sales not to be astounding that’s why I upped them by 1M. I was thinking more, but the resulting Rev & EPS figure was so high I thought it was impossible Apple would beat guidance by that much. So I was still tempered. Higher iPhone units pulled up my GM estimate too. I’m guessing that even mgmt didn’t foresee the continued strength and acceleration occurring in the later portion of the quarter.

    Adam, if you ever need to reach out to me, email me turleymuller at me.com for the

    Turley,

    I’ve appreciated your insights and analysis for years.

    What is your thinking on China Mobile/other carrier impact for Q4?

    Not to speak for Turley, because is input is much appreciated, but
    We all look at today’s numbers and try to predict what is going on in China as this is the great unknown.  If Apple can add China mobile in Sep then it will be end of qtr and maybe 1-2M plus channel fill, the engineering challenge is finding a suitable TDSCDMA chipset since LTE is too young and will arrive in 2012.  I have yet to find an announced Qualcomm chipset available today which support TDSCDMA, but Apple can move vendors and so I watch with interest.  The other major China player is on the CDMA network but uses a USIM like GSM so my guess is iPhone 5 adds China Telecom.  As aside note Reliance of India also uses USIM and CDMA so iPhone 5 will continue to expand the network.

         
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    Posted: 19 July 2011 10:28 PM #50

    adamthompson3232 - 20 July 2011 01:16 AM

    iPhone added ~40 carriers last Q, which was almost a 20% increase. That explains the sequential growth in a year-old product. I LOVE that Apple is ramping its carriers for iPhone so quickly. It means they have MONSTER production planned for the holiday quarter. I think 30M is the floor. I know it sounds insane but they wouldn’t be adding carriers like this if production wasn’t going through the proverbial roof.

    I think your in the right range.  As I said before Foxconn is using two factories with daily production of 150K and 200K so 350K x 90 = 31.5M and we have the Brazil production as an unknown.

         
  • Posted: 19 July 2011 10:30 PM #51

    pats - 20 July 2011 01:00 AM
    Red shirted ensign - 20 July 2011 12:36 AM
    turleymuller - 20 July 2011 12:30 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 19 July 2011 03:25 AM

    Does anyone know Turley? Can you reach out to him and ask him for an explanation??? Would love to hear his thinking. It looks like he increased his gross margin estimate but I can’t remember all his old estimates.

    Yeah I got some figure from my BBY source over the weekend. I hadn’t been getting any for the last several months because he was out of the office on medical leave. When I saw them, I immediately knew iPhone sales were going to be huge. The month of June was huge, and May better than April, so the trend was accelerating, not slowing down. In addition, the 3GS at AT&T was very solid, again with June being the top month since beginning of the year. Add in the White iPhone, full Q of VZ sales, and carrier expansion, it would be impossible for iPhone sales not to be astounding that’s why I upped them by 1M. I was thinking more, but the resulting Rev & EPS figure was so high I thought it was impossible Apple would beat guidance by that much. So I was still tempered. Higher iPhone units pulled up my GM estimate too. I’m guessing that even mgmt didn’t foresee the continued strength and acceleration occurring in the later portion of the quarter.

    Adam, if you ever need to reach out to me, email me turleymuller at me.com for the

    Turley,

    I’ve appreciated your insights and analysis for years.

    What is your thinking on China Mobile/other carrier impact for Q4?

    Not to speak for Turley, because is input is much appreciated, but
    We all look at today’s numbers and try to predict what is going on in China as this is the great unknown.  If Apple can add China mobile in Sep then it will be end of qtr and maybe 1-2M plus channel fill, the engineering challenge is finding a suitable TDSCDMA chipset since LTE is too young and will arrive in 2012.  I have yet to find an announced Qualcomm chipset available today which support TDSCDMA, but Apple can move vendors and so I watch with interest.  The other major China player is on the CDMA network but uses a USIM like GSM so my guess is iPhone 5 adds China Telecom.  As aside note Reliance of India also uses USIM and CDMA so iPhone 5 will continue to expand the network.

    I believe QCOM has a TD-SCDMA baseband, not 100% sure though. I think we probably will see China Telecom before China Mobile, but I think both are coming soon. We should see a pretty sizable bump, but less impact than what we would see in post-paid markets moving from exclusive to multi-carrier. This is because in China, mobility or switching among carriers is relatively easy, relatively speaking. I think the biggest thing needed is adding carriers in Japan. Softbank only serves a bit more than 20M subs, leaving 80M unaddressed. In addition, the iPhone penetration rate at Softbank is massive. ~20%.

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    Posted: 19 July 2011 10:35 PM #52

    KDDI is also a CDMA carrier which uses USIM so the tech will be there with iPhone 5 in Sep and the contract work will determine pace.  NT Doccom has hitched their wagon with Andriod since they want to control all the value added.  I doubt they will change paths soon.