AFB AAPL Price Target Index - September Edition

  • Posted: 24 July 2011 01:14 AM

    The AFB AAPL Price Target Index - September Edition is scheduled to be posted Labor Day weekend. Estimates are due in to:

    robert(at)postsateventide.com

    by August 31st

    Please do not post estimates in this topic. All estimates will be embargoed until the index is published. Just a reminder real names will be used for this index.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2011 01:41 AM #1

    The embargo is a good idea, and I’d recommend it for earnings estimates as well.  I’d embargo everything until maybe just before earnings!  Of course, this is a _former_ index participant speaking, yes I know, but still, no reason to give WS any more reasons to move their goal posts any sooner than they have to.

    I’ll carry on as a home gamer.  I have some wild target prices to share with the board when the embargo’s lifted.

    By that I mean crazy, stupid, insane wild.  And that’s despite what I think is a fairly conservative growth estimation/valuation approach based on today’s P/E ranges (which of course may be further compressed over the next year, who knows).  See you guys on the target price front when Robert posts the index!

    [ Edited: 24 July 2011 01:44 AM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 24 July 2011 01:41 AM #2

    As stupid as Apple made me feel this qtr I don’t even know where to begin. :bugeyed:

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    Posted: 24 July 2011 01:43 AM #3

    I came up with some staggering numbers, which even if not met still provide tremendous reassurance and confidence in my investing strategy.  I guess I’ll keep ‘em to myself for a while.  smile

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    Posted: 24 July 2011 02:00 AM #4

    adamthompson3232 - 24 July 2011 04:54 AM

    We are going to see $45.00 in EPS in fiscal 2012. Slap a P/E of 10 on that and you obviously get to $450 per share by October 2012. Ex-cash the P/E at $450 would probably be 7 or so. I’m in a rush to get ready (going out with some crazy dudes tonight in a little bit) or I would do the math myself. I am thinking the safest investment in the option investing world might be January 13 500’s. Out of the money provides the upside and by then the TTM EPS will be well north of $50. Even at tiny P/E multiples (12 or so) those have to 5 baggers or more from here.


    Dude, we gotta talk, you are scaring me. Go have fun and I will ask WTF you are doing tomorrow. LOL

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    Posted: 24 July 2011 02:58 AM #5

    It’s no secret.  Even Gregg wink saw it coming.

    If you have some patience, you’re a bull and you got some guts, Jan 13 500s are worth a look.  Maybe not a ton of your portfolio, but as a multibagger possibility?  The mind boggles!

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2011 09:01 AM #6

    Mav - 24 July 2011 05:58 AM

    It’s no secret.  Even Gregg wink saw it coming.

    If you have some patience, you’re a bull and you got some guts, Jan 13 500s are worth a look.  Maybe not a ton of your portfolio, but as a multibagger possibility?  The mind boggles!


    I think the Jan 13’s are easily money in the bank, but they should only be a smaller portion of a persons portfolio. Heck Mav, I have some Jan 12 490’s (20) that I paid $5 a piece for that I bought back in the spring. If they turn green I will be unloading quickly. My time has run out.  :cry:

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  • Posted: 24 July 2011 06:08 PM #7

    mbeauch - 24 July 2011 04:41 AM

    As stupid as Apple made me feel this qtr I don’t even know where to begin. :bugeyed:

    Same here.  I’d like to see the AFB’s estimates/arguments much earlier than Labor Day.  The time to be investing is now, not then.

    Make the list OFFICIAL Labor Day, but post numbers and arguments now.

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    Posted: 24 July 2011 06:23 PM #8

    I’m OK with talking shop.  I’m an even bigger fan of not showing an excessive number of cards and notes for WS to blatantly rip off so they can move the EPS goalposts north of $7.75 just before earnings.

    Will they do it anyway?  Of course.  But it only makes their actions more obvious if we keep the numbers out of view for as long as possible.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2011 10:45 PM #9

    Mav - 24 July 2011 09:23 PM

    I’m OK with talking shop.  I’m an even bigger fan of not showing an excessive number of cards and notes for WS to blatantly rip off so they can move the EPS goalposts north of $7.75 just before earnings.

    Will they do it anyway?  Of course.  But it only makes their actions more obvious if we keep the numbers out of view for as long as possible.

    The numbers will be embargoed until the index is complete for a number of good reasons including those mentioned above.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2011 11:03 PM #10

    Have you considered an embargo until very shortly before earnings?  Say, a week or so?

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    Posted: 24 July 2011 11:21 PM #11

    Greg has the right idea, bounce ideas/thoughts, but keep numbers under wraps. WS is not gonna know what hit them in a few months. Not unlike the feeling I had last Tuesday. rolleyes  I really don’t even want to think about unit number right now. I want to just watch the important number for a while. :drool:

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  • Posted: 24 July 2011 11:22 PM #12

    Mav - 25 July 2011 02:03 AM

    Have you considered an embargo until very shortly before earnings?  Say, a week or so?

    The information is of interest to our avid readers and will be published as soon as all participants are given an opportunity to see the numbers.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2011 11:53 PM #13

    Ooooook.  It’s ready when it’s ready.

    Ambiguity aside, my vote is for the general public to have about a week to look at everything, maybe two.  As I’ve said, you can’t prevent WS from cribbing notes, but you can make it easier to tell when they do.

    [ Edited: 24 July 2011 11:55 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 24 July 2011 11:58 PM #14

    Mav - 25 July 2011 02:53 AM

    Ooooook.  It’s ready when it’s ready.

    Ambiguity aside, my vote is for the general public to have about a week to look at everything, maybe two.  As I’ve said, you can’t prevent WS from cribbing notes, but you can make it easier to tell when they do.

    Our active members will know as soon as the numbers are posted. SA may pick up the story a few hours later.

    Index participants may have access to the index in process. You can still join the gang. You just have to step out from being the “Masked Mav.”  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 25 July 2011 04:33 PM #15

    mbeauch - 25 July 2011 02:21 AM

    Greg has the right idea, bounce ideas/thoughts, but keep numbers under wraps. WS is not gonna know what hit them in a few months.

    This isn’t a game.  Wall Street is not our enemy.  Many orders of magnitude more investors watch WS estimates, than watch ours.

    This isn’t about who is right, and who is wrong, it is about doing everything possible to educate the investing public, in order to drive AAPL to where it belongs.

    If WS needs our help to get it right then so be it.  Increased Investor Sentiment means my Spreads have a better chance of maxing out.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.