AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 29 July 2011 11:18 PM #436

    Mercel - 30 July 2011 02:11 AM

      Boehner’s plan got a vote by moving further away from acceptable to the Senate, making compromise even more difficult.  This one is going to the wire and Monday isn’t likely to see an up day in the market.

    Without getting into politics too much, I think this was actually well within the range of political theater expectations.  The House was gonna do whatever, whoever likes it or not.  Honestly, if the House passed nothing, it’d probably be an even worse situation.  So now the Senate will show its cards, and there’s gonna be tons of public recriminations and private negotiations going on until Monday/maybe right up ‘til 11:59PM on Tuesday.  Kinda like that continuing resolution/rest-of-fiscal-year battle not so long ago.

    The stakes are so ridiculously high, I’m sure that the necessary Congresspeople will move in whatever ways they need to avert the crisis immediately in front of them - which would be letting August 2 pass without a bill being signed into law (or having short-term extensions to stop the clock to hammer out the fine details, etc.).  Of course, the other big problem is saving the US’s AAA credit rating (since the credit ratings agencies have been fairly clear on what’s being expected), but as if you can count on anyone in DC thinking that far ahead…

    [ Edited: 29 July 2011 11:23 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2011 11:30 PM #437

    I am fully in.  Heavily margined.  No panicking like the folks at AFB.

    I welcome a correction.  If we drop another 5% from here I can live with that.  That will happen without debt ceiling issues.

    I just don’t see a default coming.  Obama can’t afford to have the country default and put the economy at further risk. Republicans have the upper hand and Reid will lose.  If things go south next week Obama will lose in a landslide to any republican.  The Democrats will become the minority party for decades if the stock market corrects 30% as a result of all this.

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2011 11:34 PM #438

    No panic here.  AAPL going down isn’t good for call options, so I’m not in options.  There is a better entry to be found amongst the chaos, for better or for worse.  If I were all common, I wouldn’t sell.  I’m not selling my AAPL common, that’s for sure.

    To heck with politics.  If DC can’t get its act together by next Tuesday, the US loses.  And soon after, the entire world loses to some degree, based on the inevitable US credit rating downgrade and whatever impacts flow from that.

    DC can probably avoid the default situation, but that’s just the first hurdle.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 29 July 2011 11:49 PM #439

    omacvi - 30 July 2011 02:30 AM

    I am fully in.  Heavily margined.  No panicking like the folks at AFB.

    I welcome a correction.  If we drop another 5% from here I can live with that.  That will happen without debt ceiling issues.

    I just don’t see a default coming.  Obama can’t afford to have the country default and put the economy at further risk. Republicans have the upper hand and Reid will lose.  If things go south next week Obama will lose in a landslide to any republican.  The Democrats will become the minority party for decades if the stock market corrects 30% as a result of all this.

    I don’t see a default either.  The nail biting to Tuesday will engender anger, I believe, because I don’t expect them to accomplish much more than reach an agreement that does nothing to solve the problem except the immediacy of raising the debt ceiling.

    The relief rally will be short-lived and shallow IMO.  We’ll get through this, but it’s all so unnecessary if we had courageous politicians doing the right thing w/entitlements.

         
  • Posted: 29 July 2011 11:52 PM #440

    Mav - 30 July 2011 02:34 AM

    No panic here.  AAPL going down isn’t good for call options, so I’m not in options.  There is a better entry to be found amongst the chaos, for better or for worse.  If I were all common, I wouldn’t sell.  I’m not selling my AAPL common, that’s for sure.

    To heck with politics.  If DC can’t get its act together by next Tuesday, the US loses.  And soon after, the entire world loses to some degree, based on the inevitable US credit rating downgrade and whatever impacts flow from that.

    DC can probably avoid the default situation, but that’s just the first hurdle.

    I’m not concerned about holding options anymore than I would be with common.  Most of my options are January’s.  With options, I have less cash at risk while providing unmatched leverage.  It’s not like options have a higher delta than holding common…

         
  • Posted: 29 July 2011 11:54 PM #441

    omacvi - 30 July 2011 02:30 AM

    I am fully in.  Heavily margined.  No panicking like the folks at AFB.

    Sponge, you are a high-wire act in a class of your own.  LOL