Is the public finally growing tired of Android?

  • Posted: 23 April 2012 12:41 PM #16

    FalKirk - 23 April 2012 01:47 PM

    Conclusion: In a race, Android wins. In a head-to-head fight, iOS wins. We’re about the leave the race stage and enter the head-to-head fight stage.

    This is precisely what happened with Mac vs Windows the first time around. But the farm was too small and it became irrelevant. This time, Apple knows share has to be over a certain critical mass, and that’s why we’re seeing a doubling of volumes each year. A crucial difference this time around is that the structure of the mobile industry generates a 2-year or so replacement cycle, and that enables Apple to keep its customers moving forwards in a compact group while Android customers don’t even know where they are when their contract is up for renewal.

         
  • Posted: 23 April 2012 01:40 PM #17

    FalKirk - 23 April 2012 01:47 PM

    Conclusion: In a race, Android wins. In a head-to-head fight, iOS wins. We’re about the leave the race stage and enter the head-to-head fight stage.

    Nice to see you posting Falkirk. If I may paraphrase your statement above:

    Conclusion: In a sprint, Android wins. In a marathon,, iOS wins. We’re about the leave the sprint stage and enter the marathon stage.

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  • Posted: 23 April 2012 02:06 PM #18

    Gregg Thurman - 23 April 2012 04:40 PM

    Conclusion: In a sprint, Android wins. In a marathon,, iOS wins. We’re about the leave the sprint stage and enter the marathon stage.

    Very nicely put.

         
  • Posted: 23 April 2012 02:28 PM #19

    sleepygeek - 23 April 2012 03:41 PM

    This is precisely what happened with Mac vs Windows the first time around. But the farm was too small and it became irrelevant. This time, Apple knows share has to be over a certain critical mass, and that’s why we’re seeing a doubling of volumes each year. A crucial difference this time around is that the structure of the mobile industry generates a 2-year or so replacement cycle, and that enables Apple to keep its customers moving forwards in a compact group while Android customers don’t even know where they are when their contract is up for renewal.

    There are many parallels and many differences between the Mac vs. PC wars and the iOS vs. Android wars. I was going to list a few of them off the top of my head, but then one similarity struck me as particularly important.

    I originally thought that iOS’ domination of Apps was going to make iOS the new Windows. Didn’t happen. Despite iOS’s 100,000 App head start, Android sales ramped up quickly and then rapidly surpassed the market share of iPhone (if not iOS) devices. I spent a lot of time trying to understand why today’s App platform did not have the same lock-in that yesterday’s applications had.

    A new thought has occured to me. May it’s not the big Apps that cause App lock-in. The major word processing and spreadsheet programs will always, if belatedly, show up on all the major platforms. The same is true of today’s Angry Birds and Instagram’s.

    But what about the company specific Apps that are now being created for the iPad? Most companies are not going to want to spend the time or resources to create multiple platform apps. And if they’re choosing just one platform, which platform are they going to choose?

    Android? Not likely. Aside from security concerns Android’s tablet presence is negligible.

    Windows 8? A real possibility. But iOS is here today, Window’s 8 is only a promise.

    iOS? Here today. Best hardware, software and ecosystem. An easy sell to employees. Complete integration across all iOS devices.

    I may have been right (then wrong then right again) all along. May Apps do matter. But maybe it’s the personalized, company or issue specific Apps that matter.

    A random thought, but an intriguing thought.

         
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    Posted: 23 April 2012 02:32 PM #20

    What if you had the ubiquity of Windows but with fit, finish, style and taste?  The most seamless integration yet seen in tech?  And price/cost leadership?  And an innovation engine?  With enough developers to keep the app ecosystem self-sustaining?  And more accessories than you could ever want?

    How will it stack up to ubiquitous but undeniably more fragmented challengers with a free-to-distribute-and-fork OS?

    That is the question Apple is in the middle of answering.

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  • Posted: 23 April 2012 02:55 PM #21

    Mav - 23 April 2012 05:32 PM

    What if you had the ubiquity of Windows but with fit, finish, style and taste?  The most seamless integration yet seen in tech?  And price/cost leadership?  And an innovation engine?  With enough developers to keep the app ecosystem self-sustaining?  And more accessories than you could ever want?

    How will it stack up to ubiquitous but undeniably more fragmented challengers with a free-to-distribute-and-fork OS?

    That is the question Apple is in the middle of answering.

    Beautifully said.

    It breaks my heart when I think about Microsoft winning the PC wars. 15 to 20 years of the Windows monopoly stifling all innovation. It was like living in the middle ages.

    Now we may see a monopoly, just as powerful, but guided by Apple instead. It’s like living in the Renaissance.

    It makes my heart soar that I am alive to see the second coming of the promise that was Apple

         
  • Posted: 23 April 2012 03:30 PM #22

    FalKirk - 23 April 2012 05:28 PM
    sleepygeek - 23 April 2012 03:41 PM

    This is precisely what happened with Mac vs Windows the first time around. But the farm was too small and it became irrelevant. This time, Apple knows share has to be over a certain critical mass, and that’s why we’re seeing a doubling of volumes each year. A crucial difference this time around is that the structure of the mobile industry generates a 2-year or so replacement cycle, and that enables Apple to keep its customers moving forwards in a compact group while Android customers don’t even know where they are when their contract is up for renewal.

    There are many parallels and many differences between the Mac vs. PC wars and the iOS vs. Android wars. I was going to list a few of them off the top of my head, but then one similarity struck me as particularly important.

    I originally thought that iOS’ domination of Apps was going to make iOS the new Windows. Didn’t happen. Despite iOS’s 100,000 App head start, Android sales ramped up quickly and then rapidly surpassed the market share of iPhone (if not iOS) devices. I spent a lot of time trying to understand why today’s App platform did not have the same lock-in that yesterday’s applications had.

    A new thought has occured to me. Maybe it’s not the big Apps that cause App lock-in. The major word processing and spreadsheet programs will always, if belatedly, show up on all the major platforms. The same is true of today’s Angry Birds and Instagram’s.

    But what about the company specific Apps that are now being created for the iPad? Most companies are not going to want to spend the time or resources to create multiple platform apps. And if they’re choosing just one platform, which platform are they going to choose?

    Android? Not likely. Aside from security concerns Android’s tablet presence is negligible.

    Windows 8? A real possibility. But iOS is here today, Window’s 8 is only a promise.

    iOS? Here today. Best hardware, software and ecosystem. An easy sell to employees. Complete integration across all iOS devices.

    I may have been right (then wrong then right again) all along. Maybe Apps do matter. But maybe it’s the personalized, company or issue specific Apps that matter.

    A random thought, but an intriguing thought.

    Falkirk, I think you have to go back to your prior post, re: conclusions, before making similarity comparisons.

    Android sales ramped quickly, despite iOS Apps headstart, BECAUSE of the market segment that bought Android. These are the folks that upgraded from dumb and feature phones to Android “smart phones” (aka low cost iPhone clones).  This class of consumer was price driven. The number of Apps available on the platform didn’t mean anything to this segment.  Surveys on data usage and propensity to buy anything via their handset, bears this out.

    But when it comes time to renew, your arguments in favor of iOS will kick in, and that’s when App lock in will occur.

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    Posted: 23 April 2012 06:16 PM #23

    Let’s remember that the smartphone competition has never been a team sport. There is no Android “team”. Samsung, LG, Motorola and HTC compete against each other more than they do against Apple.

    I think it’s great that Android provides a shadow competitor figure. It keeps the regulators off Apple’s back. Besides, someone has to take care of the sub-$300 smartphone market.

         
  • Posted: 23 April 2012 06:50 PM #24

    Has anyone followed the trial? 

    The odds of Oracle prevailing are non trivial.

    What happens to Android if Oracle wins an injunction?

         
  • Posted: 23 April 2012 06:59 PM #25

    iphoned - 23 April 2012 09:50 PM

    The odds of Oracle prevailing are non trivial.

    Are there really odds? Where can I find them?

         
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    Posted: 23 April 2012 07:02 PM #26

    FalKirk, you jokester you.

    Would be amusing if Vegas had a betting line on this one though.  Until then, I guess we’ll just have to make do with popcorn. LOL

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    Posted: 23 April 2012 10:17 PM #28

    This was mentioned in Oracle’s opening presentation slides in the ongoing trial (FOSS Patents has a link as I recall).  We’ll have to see what the jury thinks.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 02 May 2012 09:31 PM #29

    The end of Android?


    http://www.mactrast.com/2012/05/could-we-be-seeing-the-end-of-android/

         
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    Posted: 02 May 2012 10:37 PM #30

    Infohunter - 03 May 2012 12:31 AM

    The end of Android?

    The headline is provocative, which is the intent, but Android is not going to “end”. It will continue to be the dominant platform for low-priced, so-called smartphones…the ones that look like smartphones and function mostly like feature phones.

    The high-end market has always been dominated by the iPhone. Only Apple provides hard sales numbers and ASPs, so we’ll probably never know the extent of the iPhone’s dominance. My WAG would be that for every $350+ (unsubsidized price) Android smartphone that is sold, Apple sells at least 9 iPhones. It’s a level of dominance akin to Apple’s dominance in the $1k+ laptop market.

    It amazes me that so many tech bloggers and stock analysts continue to lap up the “Android wins” meme. There are some out there that perpetuate the meme to gain page views, but most really believe the BS. The reality is that the iPhone & iPad enjoy Windows-like dominance in their respective markets.