Is the public finally growing tired of Android?

  • Posted: 02 May 2012 10:58 PM #31

    Drew Bear - 03 May 2012 01:37 AM

    It amazes me that so many tech bloggers and stock analysts continue to lap up the “Android wins” meme. ... (M)ost really believe the BS.

    People genuinely can’t get past market share. In their eyes market share means that you win, period.

    And when you try to point out that profit is all that matters in business, they call you an Apple fanboy. Incredible.

    Market Share times Margins equal Profit. Market Share and Margins are factors in the equation - they are not the desired result of the equation.

    Samsung has high market share and low profits. What that tells you is that their margins must be pitifully small.

    Apple has high profits. That’s pretty much all one needs to know. So long as you know the result of the equation, the factors are immaterial.

    Why the obsession with market share? Because normally the platform with the most market share wins. But Android is a weak platform. iOS has all the network effects. Developers develop for iOS first. Developers make far more money on iOS. iOS customers buy more and pay higher prices for Apps. That’s a virtuous cycle. iOS has it. Google play doesn’t.

    And if number are all that matter, then why not focus on total iOS number vs. total Android numbers instead of only focusing on the phones? Apple has a huge advantage in the iPod Touch and the iPad. I believe that iOS is currently at 363 million while Android is at 300 million.

    Market share doesn’t matter. Profits do Costume Jewelry has the market share. Real Jewelry has the profits. Android has the market share in phones. iOS has the money. I guarantee that costume jewelers and Android would trade places with their counterparts in a heartbeat.

         
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    Posted: 02 May 2012 11:52 PM #32

    FalKirk - 03 May 2012 01:58 AM

    Market share doesn’t matter. Profits do…

    Exactly! Samsung is doing fine, though…by copying Apple. No where close to Apple’s margins, but at least they’re not losing money.

    Samsung, Apple, Quite Literally, the 99%.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/canaccordgenuity/2012/05/02/samsung-apple-quite-literally-the-99/

    Looks like the graphic might get cut off. The numbers for last quarter are Apple 73% and Samsung 26%. The numbers for Apple probably don’t include the iPad.

         
  • Posted: 03 May 2012 01:52 AM #33

    Market share will always be the most cited metric because it is by far the easiest to quantify. And if it’s easy, people will flock to it. That’s just basic human nature, unfortunately.

    With that said, I don’t think anyone is getting sick (or tired) or Android. iPhone is a brand that the public is aware of. Android is not. When iPhone distribution expands so does market share. It’s that simple. iPhone still needs to add T-Mobile domestically and when it does we’ll see another bump to iPhone market share. Of course, there are other intra-carrier market share fluctuations but ultimately right now iPhone market share is a function of distribution.

    Few people consciously choose an “Android” instead of an iPhone. The non-iPhone people largely are either choosing a specific Samsung model (or some other OEM) they like or are just anti-Apple (a minority of non-iPhone people). They aren’t choosing an “Android” so they can’t really ever get sick (or tired) of Android.

    [ Edited: 03 May 2012 01:55 AM by adamthompson32 ]      
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    Posted: 03 May 2012 11:31 PM #34

    adamthompson32 - 03 May 2012 04:52 AM

    Market share will always be the most cited metric because it is by far the easiest to quantify.

    I agree it will continue to be the most cited metric, but is it really that easy to quantify? One by one the phone makers have stopped providing hard unit numbers and ASPs. Here’s what Horace says:

    Bit by bit, vendors are withdrawing information. RIM stopped reporting its average selling prices some time ago, Motorola may disappear completely and they already stopped reporting tablet sales…This makes the picture of the market fuzzier each quarter.

    http://www.asymco.com/2012/05/02/400-million-phones-per-quarter-and-everythings-topsy-turvy/

    MG Siegler & Jay Yarrow discuss the confusion caused by vague numbers.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/554471-android-is-either-winning-because-apple-is-letting-it-or-losing?source=yahoo

    http://www.businessinsider.com/apples-us-smartphone-marketshare-versus-android-for-q1-2012-5

         
  • Posted: 04 May 2012 12:24 AM #35

    Drew, I didn’t say it was easy - I said it was the easiest and I think it is by far, in fact, still the easiest. I’m not surprised the others are sharing less and less information. They are getting trounced so they’re hiding whatever they can. I suspect Samsung will eventually start disclosing again once its lead on Apple is more well established. Yeah, I think the lead is theirs for the foreseeable future but I still think iPhone is going to new heights way beyond current WS estimates.

         
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    Posted: 04 May 2012 01:39 AM #36

    FalKirk - 23 April 2012 01:47 PM
    asymco - 23 April 2012 06:29 AM

    Most smartphone users are still using their first smartphone. After the market saturates (which will happen in the US over the next two years) the platform that wins is the one with the highest loyalty. Loyalty is primarily determined by value sitting “on top” of the platform, i.e. the ecosystem and secondarily by the overall experience. In both cases Apple is managing their platform better than Google is managing theirs.

    This has been my contention all along (although you say it so much more eloquently than I every did)..

    Android is like a jungle and iOS is like a farm. The jungle spreads much more rapidly than the farm. But when the farm expands, the jungle gives way and it gives way forever.

    I think that is quite eloquent, Falkirk. Even poetic.

    This, too:  “It makes my heart soar that I am alive to see the second coming of the promise that was Apple.”

    [ Edited: 04 May 2012 01:47 AM by jjjz ]

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    Posted: 13 May 2012 03:17 AM #37

    The anything but apple crowd may be on to something. Have not heard reports of functionality or hardware quality of their devices, but they are good looking smart phones.

    Nokia Can’t Keep Up With Cyan Lumia 900 Demand, In Talks With Verizon
    Daily Tech link
    Hot Lumia 900 phone may receive WP8 update, after all; Nokia’s WP7.5 PureView 808 41 megapixel coming to U.S.

    excerpts….
    After a brutal year which saw investor faith in its board and executive leadership waivering, Finnish phonemaker Nokia Oyj (OMX:NOK1V) finally has some good news to report.  The company has at last wrapped its head around the U.S. carrier model, and is showing strong early gains for its troubles.

    Like the cyan Lumia 900 the PureView 808 is an eye-catching design.  In a market full of bland, relatively uniform handsets, the PureView 808 is an exception to the rule.  It’s slender, but at its crest, a bulbous camera module rises up from the smooth back-face. 

    The camera is a 41 megapixel design, and the sensor itself is estimated to be 4-5x the size of the sensor found in the Apple iPhone 4S, one of the largest sensors in a currently available handset.

         
  • Posted: 13 May 2012 11:43 AM #38

    Yeah, 41 tiny crappy noisy megapixels. This is a pure gimmick, and a pretty horrible one at that.

         
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    Posted: 13 May 2012 12:43 PM #39

    It’s interesting how these “can’t keep up with demand” headlines are never followed up with concrete sales numbers. I don’t recall the exact model, but HP once announced that they had “sold out” of one of their tablet models, only to report (much later) that they had manufactured only 5000 units. So the question with Nokia is what were their estimates for initial demand? 50k? 100k?

    BTW, I checked AT&T and Amazon websites and found the Lumia 900 available at both ($50 at Amazon) with free two day shipping.

         
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    Posted: 17 May 2012 04:14 PM #40

    Android Malware Has Nearly Quadrupled in the Past Year, iOS Remains Clear

    Along with the massive increase in total Android malware threats comes a significantly increased risk to users? personal and financial security. 34 of the 37 known families of Android malware directly target the user?s financial data.

    The most chilling aspect of the report, however, is that many of these trojans are so insidious that they can be extremely difficult to detect, as the malware can work around security software, making it much for difficult for victims to know they have been affected by the malware until it is too late.

    http://www.mactrast.com/2012/05/f-secure-android-malware-has-nearly-quadrupled-in-the-past-year-ios-remains-clear/

         
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    Posted: 17 May 2012 04:50 PM #41

    “Walled garden”?  Or, Disneyland?

    Hmmmmm.

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    Posted: 23 May 2012 11:55 AM #43

    Too Many Androids for Its Own Good - Fragmentation is getting lethal, especially in the enterprise market

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    Posted: 23 May 2012 09:54 PM #44

    From the new CEO of Motorola Mobility:

    ?This is a huge opportunity to really show what Android can do in a well-designed, well-packaged, and well-marketed product,?

    So all Android devices up to now have been crap?

    Surprisingly decent read from business week:
    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-05-22/its-official-google-is-now-a-hardware-company

         
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    Posted: 23 May 2012 10:00 PM #45

    Samsung can’t like that quote.  rolleyes

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.