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Tea Leaf Reading: date of fall Apple event (Ars bets on 9/7)
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Ars Says:
Given that the annual event typically falls in the beginning of September, and is usually held on a Tuesday or Wednesday, it’s a pretty safe bet. In addition to new iPod updates, however, the event is expected to see the introduction of the next-generation iPhone as well as the launch of Apple’s iCloud. . . . .
Kodawarisan [Ars’s source] doesn’t cite a source for the information that Apple’s event will be held on September 7 (technically, September 8 in Japan), but the guess is as good as any [based on historical dates:]
Year Date Day of Week
2011 Sept 7? Wed
2010 Sept 1 Wed
2009 Sept 9 Wed
2008 Sept 9 Tue
2007 Sept 5 WedSignature
Don’t anthropomorphize computers, they hate that.
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I just hope they get released in Canada before September 30 so I can take advantage of the current plan specials at Telus.
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-Jon Roth
Instant Philosopher; Just add hot topic and stir.
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iPad 2 was announced on March 2 (symbolically) even though it went on sale March 25th.
So I bet iPhone 5 will be announced on September 5th. But for all we know, it could go on sale end of September.
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Sorry. I’m going with Jim Darlymple who today said Sept 7 will NOT be the date of an Apple media event. His Apple contacts are unimpeachable.
http://www.loopinsight.com/2011/08/12/apple-will-not-hold-iphone-5-on-sept-7/
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I do have to say, even though he’s more of a “it won’t be this day” kinda guy, his record of “not on that day” has been perfect IIRC. But if not September 7, when? That’s the burning question.
I may have to bail on a shorter-dated option trade or two if there’s no iPhone 5 in fiscal Q4. It’d be pretty material, and I’m not comfortable with iPhone 5 launching as late as end of October as some are claiming. I will say, though, that with Samsung releasing the Galaxy S II dual-core series in the US in late August, that Apple’s “timing” for this longer-than-“normal” product interval is about as good as it gets.
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Thanks, Steve. -
Also…where’d the new vowel come from, Poster Formerly Known as Mercel?
Dammit, I wish I hadn’t fallen into that parallel universe where the iPhone 5 still hasn’t come out yet and my portfolio wasn’t suffering like this…
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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Thanks, Steve. -
I’m convinced (based on nothing but my gut and my extensive reading) that the best we can hope for is a September announcement and an October release. Sadly, my position is slowly moving toward both an October announcement and an October release. Hope I’m wrong.
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I’m convinced (based on nothing but my gut and my extensive reading) that the best we can hope for is a September announcement and an October release. Sadly, my position is slowly moving toward both an October announcement and an October release. Hope I’m wrong.
I think your over analyzing your gut and that may cause indigestion. Can’t we all just say we don’t have a clue. We have reached critical mass with all the fake stuff so the release paranoia has achieve it’s effect. I suggest you watch the software releases. The iPhone 5 is waiting for iCloud and iOS 5 and it looks to me based on the frequency of the beta releases we are nearing the home stretch.
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Also…where’d the new vowel come from, Poster Formerly Known as Mercel?
It’s the new me. It’s better than a symbol right?
Actually, it was a typo at inception and I just learned it can be edited. It’s short for Marcellus. October launch rumors have me a bit concerned. Everything should be on schedule, but iCloud could be the reason for a delay—I’m not aware of any hardware issues that cause a delay except for possible yield issues given earlier commentary that the new one is very challenging to build in volume. iOS5 should not be the cause for any delay.
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I’m convinced (based on nothing but my gut and my extensive reading) that the best we can hope for is a September announcement and an October release. Sadly, my position is slowly moving toward both an October announcement and an October release. Hope I’m wrong.
I think your over analyzing your gut and that may cause indigestion.
Well, as I’ve said before, overanalyzing is what I do.
Can’t we all just say we don’t have a clue.
I thought that was what I did say.
I suggest you watch the software releases. The iPhone 5 is waiting for iCloud and iOS 5 and it looks to me based on the frequency of the beta releases we are nearing the home stretch.
Hmmm. You may be right. And I agree that iOS 5 and iCloud are prerequisites. But I suspect the release date has been scheduled for quite some time.
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sales. Apple proved it can increase sales sequentially by adding additional carriers and I believe they will do the same again this Q. I won’t make the same mistake twice so I’m thinking 21M iPhones even without iPhone 5. How ya like ‘dem apples?:)
Not as much as 25 million+, but I’ll manage somehow. I’d figure on a number modestly higher sequentially with no iPhone 5 in fiscal Q4 as well.
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
I disagree that it will be material to iPhone unit sales. Apple proved it can increase sales sequentially by adding additional carriers and I believe they will do the same again this Q. I won’t make the same mistake twice so I’m thinking 21M iPhones even without iPhone 5. How ya like ‘dem apples?:)
I likes ‘em just fah’n. Especially since the earnings report will come after the iPhone 5 announcement & possibly release. That number won’t phase anyone because they know the next quarterly number is going to be humongous.
FWIW, John & Kara at All Things D seem very confident in their October release prediction: http://allthingsd.com/20110812/october-oc-to-ber-repeat-after-me-apple-iphone-5-to-launch-in-october/?reflink=ATD_yahoo_ticker
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Dammit. Now, very few bloggers and journalists are typically accurate this far out and apparently, AllThingsD doesn’t have a perfect record. OTOH, Kara Swisher was right on about iPad 2. So this report has to be given serious consideration.
I want my dual-core iPhone yesterday. This wait is painful.
Also: Don’t be surprised about the flood of “iPhone 6 in 2013/end of 2012” rumors next year…
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
Sorry. I’m going with Jim Darlymple who today said Sept 7 will NOT be the date of an Apple media event. His Apple contacts are unimpeachable.
http://www.loopinsight.com/2011/08/12/apple-will-not-hold-iphone-5-on-sept-7/
This doesn’t mean apple won’t have a non-iphone event on September 7th. Why not have 2 separate events? It makes a lot more sense from a marketing / media coverage perspective.
Any coverage of an event that intros the iPhone 5 will be dominated by the iPhone 5.
The September Fall event usually covers a large amount of apples products, so no need to add in an iPhone release.
the typical fall event:
New iPod touch
New iPod nano
Refreshed Shuffle
New AppleTV
New iTunes Media deal/announcementLets give these products the space they need promotion wise by having their own event.
do the iPhone event a fortnight later.
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Full Disclosure:
- Long Apple
- Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics -
If there is a non-iPhone event on Sept 7 with no further events announced, I would expect a tasty buying opportunity on Sep 7-8.
Bring it on.
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Mrs. Rez lost her iPhone 1 walking across the ramp area of PHL back in 2008. Ever since we’ve been one year out of sync with each other. She replaced with 3G, I replaced iPh1 with 3GS, then she got iPh4. So this is the year I put my foot down and get us both back in sync with iPh5. Still swirling the tea leaves though.
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