Tea Leaf Reading: date of fall Apple event (Ars bets on 9/7)

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    Posted: 12 August 2011 04:24 PM

    http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2011/08/start-taking-bets-september-7-fingered-for-fall-apple-event.ars

    Ars Says:

    Given that the annual event typically falls in the beginning of September, and is usually held on a Tuesday or Wednesday, it’s a pretty safe bet. In addition to new iPod updates, however, the event is expected to see the introduction of the next-generation iPhone as well as the launch of Apple’s iCloud. . . . .

    Kodawarisan [Ars’s source] doesn’t cite a source for the information that Apple’s event will be held on September 7 (technically, September 8 in Japan), but the guess is as good as any [based on historical dates:]

    Year    Date    Day of Week
    2011    Sept 7
    ?   Wed
    2010    Sept 1    Wed
    2009    Sept 9    Wed
    2008    Sept 9    Tue
    2007    Sept 5    Wed 

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    Posted: 12 August 2011 10:35 PM #1

    I just hope they get released in Canada before September 30 so I can take advantage of the current plan specials at Telus.

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    Posted: 12 August 2011 11:42 PM #2

    iPad 2 was announced on March 2 (symbolically) even though it went on sale March 25th.

    So I bet iPhone 5 will be announced on September 5th. But for all we know, it could go on sale end of September.

         
  • Posted: 12 August 2011 11:51 PM #3

    Sorry.  I’m going with Jim Darlymple who today said Sept 7 will NOT be the date of an Apple media event.  His Apple contacts are unimpeachable.

    http://www.loopinsight.com/2011/08/12/apple-will-not-hold-iphone-5-on-sept-7/

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 12:07 AM #4

    I do have to say, even though he’s more of a “it won’t be this day” kinda guy, his record of “not on that day” has been perfect IIRC.  But if not September 7, when?  That’s the burning question.

    I may have to bail on a shorter-dated option trade or two if there’s no iPhone 5 in fiscal Q4.  It’d be pretty material, and I’m not comfortable with iPhone 5 launching as late as end of October as some are claiming.  I will say, though, that with Samsung releasing the Galaxy S II dual-core series in the US in late August, that Apple’s “timing” for this longer-than-“normal” product interval is about as good as it gets.

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    Posted: 13 August 2011 12:10 AM #5

    Also…where’d the new vowel come from, Poster Formerly Known as Mercel?

    Dammit, I wish I hadn’t fallen into that parallel universe where the iPhone 5 still hasn’t come out yet and my portfolio wasn’t suffering like this…

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  • Posted: 13 August 2011 12:12 AM #6

    I’m convinced (based on nothing but my gut and my extensive reading) that the best we can hope for is a September announcement and an October release. Sadly, my position is slowly moving toward both an October announcement and an October release. Hope I’m wrong.

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 12:21 AM #7

    FalKirk - 13 August 2011 03:12 AM

    I’m convinced (based on nothing but my gut and my extensive reading) that the best we can hope for is a September announcement and an October release. Sadly, my position is slowly moving toward both an October announcement and an October release. Hope I’m wrong.

    I think your over analyzing your gut and that may cause indigestion.  Can’t we all just say we don’t have a clue.  We have reached critical mass with all the fake stuff so the release paranoia has achieve it’s effect.  I suggest you watch the software releases.  The iPhone 5 is waiting for iCloud and iOS 5 and it looks to me based on the frequency of the beta releases we are nearing the home stretch.

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 01:03 AM #8

    Mav - 13 August 2011 03:10 AM

    Also…where’d the new vowel come from, Poster Formerly Known as Mercel?

    It’s the new me.  It’s better than a symbol right?  grin  Actually, it was a typo at inception and I just learned it can be edited.  It’s short for Marcellus.

    October launch rumors have me a bit concerned.  Everything should be on schedule, but iCloud could be the reason for a delay—I’m not aware of any hardware issues that cause a delay except for possible yield issues given earlier commentary that the new one is very challenging to build in volume.  iOS5 should not be the cause for any delay.

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 01:16 AM #9

    pats - 13 August 2011 03:21 AM
    FalKirk - 13 August 2011 03:12 AM

    I’m convinced (based on nothing but my gut and my extensive reading) that the best we can hope for is a September announcement and an October release. Sadly, my position is slowly moving toward both an October announcement and an October release. Hope I’m wrong.

    I think your over analyzing your gut and that may cause indigestion.

    Well, as I’ve said before, overanalyzing is what I do.

    pats - 13 August 2011 03:21 AM

    Can’t we all just say we don’t have a clue.

    I thought that was what I did say.

    pats - 13 August 2011 03:21 AM

    I suggest you watch the software releases.  The iPhone 5 is waiting for iCloud and iOS 5 and it looks to me based on the frequency of the beta releases we are nearing the home stretch.

    Hmmm. You may be right. And I agree that iOS 5 and iCloud are prerequisites. But I suspect the release date has been scheduled for quite some time.

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 02:51 AM #10

    adamthompson3232 - 13 August 2011 04:13 AM

    sales. Apple proved it can increase sales sequentially by adding additional carriers and I believe they will do the same again this Q. I won’t make the same mistake twice so I’m thinking 21M iPhones even without iPhone 5. How ya like ‘dem apples?:)

    Not as much as 25 million+, but I’ll manage somehow.  I’d figure on a number modestly higher sequentially with no iPhone 5 in fiscal Q4 as well.

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    Posted: 13 August 2011 03:41 AM #11

    adamthompson3232 - 13 August 2011 04:13 AM

    I disagree that it will be material to iPhone unit sales. Apple proved it can increase sales sequentially by adding additional carriers and I believe they will do the same again this Q. I won’t make the same mistake twice so I’m thinking 21M iPhones even without iPhone 5. How ya like ‘dem apples?:)

    I likes ‘em just fah’n. Especially since the earnings report will come after the iPhone 5 announcement & possibly release. That number won’t phase anyone because they know the next quarterly number is going to be humongous.

    FWIW, John & Kara at All Things D seem very confident in their October release prediction:  http://allthingsd.com/20110812/october-oc-to-ber-repeat-after-me-apple-iphone-5-to-launch-in-october/?reflink=ATD_yahoo_ticker

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 04:41 AM #12

    Dammit.  Now, very few bloggers and journalists are typically accurate this far out and apparently, AllThingsD doesn’t have a perfect record.  OTOH, Kara Swisher was right on about iPad 2.  So this report has to be given serious consideration.

    I want my dual-core iPhone yesterday.  This wait is painful.

    Also:  Don’t be surprised about the flood of “iPhone 6 in 2013/end of 2012” rumors next year…

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    Posted: 13 August 2011 05:01 AM #13

    Marcel - 13 August 2011 02:51 AM

    Sorry.  I’m going with Jim Darlymple who today said Sept 7 will NOT be the date of an Apple media event.  His Apple contacts are unimpeachable.

    http://www.loopinsight.com/2011/08/12/apple-will-not-hold-iphone-5-on-sept-7/

    This doesn’t mean apple won’t have a non-iphone event on September 7th. Why not have 2 separate events? It makes a lot more sense from a marketing / media coverage perspective.

    Any coverage of an event that intros the iPhone 5 will be dominated by the iPhone 5.

    The September Fall event usually covers a large amount of apples products, so no need to add in an iPhone release.

    the typical fall event:

    New iPod touch
    New iPod nano
    Refreshed Shuffle
    New AppleTV
    New iTunes Media deal/announcement

    Lets give these products the space they need promotion wise by having their own event.

    do the iPhone event a fortnight later.

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  • Posted: 13 August 2011 07:37 AM #14

    If there is a non-iPhone event on Sept 7 with no further events announced, I would expect a tasty buying opportunity on Sep 7-8. 

    Bring it on.

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 08:21 AM #15

    Mrs. Rez lost her iPhone 1 walking across the ramp area of PHL back in 2008. Ever since we’ve been one year out of sync with each other. She replaced with 3G, I replaced iPh1 with 3GS, then she got iPh4. So this is the year I put my foot down and get us both back in sync with iPh5. Still swirling the tea leaves though.

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