Weekend Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 12 August 2011 10:33 PM #16

    Still in the game.

    Tired of the market upheaval, and it’ll be nice to have a quick weekend break from the markets.  Should be good for my frayed nerves.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 12 August 2011 11:15 PM #17

    johnG - 13 August 2011 12:41 AM

    A short interview with Louis Navellier who is bullish on Tech and Apple in particular:
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/johndobosz/2011/08/12/still-lots-of-upside-left-in-ipads-pricey-burritos-and-tractors/?partner=yahootix

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    His advice regarding whom to vote for in the Presidential elections is priceless: Vote for the happy guy with a plan.

         
  • Posted: 12 August 2011 11:18 PM #18

    50% cash and holding only options sprinkled all over the Apple orchard.  I’ve got some Granny Smiths, Jonathans, Golden Crisps, and Fujis.  They’ll be fully ripe, I predict, in 2-3 months.

    I’m a buyer of AAPL common at $360 - $365.  European debt talks will probably give me that chance next week.

         
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    Posted: 12 August 2011 11:33 PM #19

    On the fundamental’s front, things continue to look great…

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/08/12/tablets-abi-echoes-wsj-story-on-ipad-rout/

    Here’s my new mantra: Look to fundamentals for what to buy, and technical analysis for when to buy it.

         
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    Posted: 12 August 2011 11:38 PM #20

    Or - if you can wait for AAPL $500(+) within 2-3 years (subject to inherent market risk), just buy now and hold.  Of course, I’m too impatient and stupid to do that (aside from the common position I have), but others don’t have the make the same mistakes as me!

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 12:05 AM #21

    Mav - 13 August 2011 02:38 AM

    Or - if you can wait for AAPL $500(+) within 2-3 years (subject to inherent market risk), just buy now and hold.  Of course, I’m too impatient and stupid to do that (aside from the common position I have), but others don’t have the make the same mistakes as me!

    The only way aapl doesn’t pierce $500 within 12 months is if the whole S-house is tipped over (aka another Fall 2008 debacle).

    I think we’re all VERY lucky the markets were pumped up following the great crash of 08-09. It remains to be seen if the Fed just postponed the inevitable. ???

      cheers to the longs
          JohnG

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 12:40 AM #22

    Prazan - 13 August 2011 02:33 AM

    On the fundamental’s front, things continue to look great…

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/08/12/tablets-abi-echoes-wsj-story-on-ipad-rout/

    Here’s my new mantra: Look to fundamentals for what to buy, and technical analysis for when to buy it.

    +1

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 01:32 AM #23

    New details on Apple’s new HQ.  Simply…this will be the Space Needle times 100.

    http://www.macrumors.com/2011/08/12/cupertino-org-posts-more-details-about-apples-new-spaceship-campus/

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 02:46 AM #24

    A nice Paso Robles Zinfandel here - from Anglim winery - the penultimate bottle from our trip down there in late July.  It is difficult to fly back with many bottles.

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 10:40 AM #25

    Just a reminder….Andy Zaky’s Bullish Cross Live is still free this weekend!  And he has an excellent post. Here is a snippet.

    I have never (seen) a solitary instance where we haven’t testing the neck-line of a head & shoulders breakdown. And given the severity of the sell-off and the severity of the over-sold conditions, usually you get an equal pull to the upside. We’ve seen over 1,000 points of buying since Tuesday. While we did see a sell-off on Wednesday, that is a lot of buying pressure. Both Tuesday and Thursday were huge accumulation days. This means people we buying everything they could at the ask. This wasn’t a gap-up weak rally. It was significant buying pressure with massive up volume.

    This indicates institutions were getting long the market. Funds were using this sell-off as an opportunity to buy. Is it no wonder that when we see two huge accumulation days like this that we see massive rallies thereafter? What institution wants to get super long right ahead of a sell-off? Here’s a chart of major accumulation days. This chart is part of the public chart list put together by Cobra’s Market View—the technition I most respect.

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 10:48 AM #26

    From Intraday:

    adamthompson3232 - 12 August 2011 12:51 PM
    lovemyipad - 12 August 2011 12:38 PM

    AT, oh I’m so gun shy with recommendations because it kills me when people lose money, more so if I have anything to do with it.  I try not to forecast…just trade what I see as I see it…

    But I will do this…I will try to post what *I* am trading or looking to trade if I can intraday…  It’s hard to do in the thick of things, but I’ll see if I can do it….just for you, AFB’s biggest admirer of my TA, haha. wink

    Thanks, Love! We are all grownups (sort of) so you shouldn’t feel bad for someone else making an investment decision that loses except for the fact that you, like me, don’t like it when anyone loses money on any investment/trade. If you post something and others follow the result is entirely on them (me).

    I’m curious, what does your setup look like on your desk? Multiple screens? What are you looking at intra day? I sort of have two careers already so I’m never going to be a day trader but understanding it better would be really cool.

    As for who your biggest admirer is, I am just one of many I suspect.

    AT, wanted to get back to you on the setup question.  Unique laughs at me on this…  I trade on a laptop…a big ass laptop that is more of a portable desktop…17” diagonal screen.  Being chained to a desk would take a sap a lot of the pleasure for me; I like to be mobile, have a nice view, follow the sun—different rooms in my house, outside on the deck, etc.

    I use Fidelity’s Active Trader primary for charts—my main view is 6-8 charts, a watchlist, streaming options.  News headlines pop up in a little box that disappears after an interval, to inform without disruption.  My favorite actual trading platform at the moment is TradeMonster, so that’s minimized and pulled up alongside the charts as needed.  I often have my handy dandy Excel workbook minimized—used to track all my LEAP spreads in various accounts… cost basis, returns, etc.

    I usually do “real” trading in the morning—first 60-90 minutes are typically the best.  Around noon-ish, my pup comes home from his playgroup at the park (childless couple with Lab—says it all), and I’ll add a skype window to play with my (super awesome) trading buds for the rest of market hours.  I mostly paper trade in the afternoons with Unique’s group, which is so fantastic, I just can’t say enough good things.  We learn and laugh constantly.

    So that’s my day trading gig in a nutshell. smile

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 11:12 AM #27

    Marcel - 13 August 2011 02:18 AM

    50% cash and holding only options sprinkled all over the Apple orchard.  I’ve got some Granny Smiths, Jonathans, Golden Crisps, and Fujis.  They’ll be fully ripe, I predict, in 2-3 months.

    I’m a buyer of AAPL common at $360 - $365.  European debt talks will probably give me that chance next week.

    Mav, Do you see appl going below 360 if market goes for a tail spin next week?

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 August 2011 11:16 AM #28

    lovemyipad - 13 August 2011 01:48 PM

    From Intraday:

    adamthompson3232 - 12 August 2011 12:51 PM
    lovemyipad - 12 August 2011 12:38 PM

    AT, oh I’m so gun shy with recommendations because it kills me when people lose money, more so if I have anything to do with it.  I try not to forecast…just trade what I see as I see it…

    But I will do this…I will try to post what *I* am trading or looking to trade if I can intraday…  It’s hard to do in the thick of things, but I’ll see if I can do it….just for you, AFB’s biggest admirer of my TA, haha. wink

    Thanks, Love! We are all grownups (sort of) so you shouldn’t feel bad for someone else making an investment decision that loses except for the fact that you, like me, don’t like it when anyone loses money on any investment/trade. If you post something and others follow the result is entirely on them (me).

    I’m curious, what does your setup look like on your desk? Multiple screens? What are you looking at intra day? I sort of have two careers already so I’m never going to be a day trader
    but understanding it better would be really cool.

    As for who your biggest admirer is, I am just one of many I suspect.

    AT, wanted to get back to you on the setup question.  Unique laughs at me on this…  I trade on a laptop…a big ass laptop that is more of a portable desktop…17” diagonal screen.  Being chained to a desk would take a sap a lot of the pleasure for me; I like to be mobile, have a nice view, follow the sun—different rooms in my house, outside on the deck, etc.

    I use Fidelity’s Active Trader primary for charts—my main view is 6-8 charts, a watchlist,
    streaming options.  News headlines pop up in a little box that disappears after an interval, to inform without disruption.  My favorite actual trading platform at the moment is TradeMonster, so that’s minimized and pulled up alongside the charts as needed.  I often have my handy dandy Excel workbook minimized—used to track all my LEAP spreads in various accounts… cost basis, returns, etc.

    I usually do “real” trading in the morning—first 60-90 minutes are typically the best.  Around noon-ish, my pup comes home from his playgroup at the park (childless couple with Lab—

    says it all), and I’ll add a skype window to play with my (super awesome) trading buds for the rest of market hours.  I mostly paper trade in the afternoons with Unique’s group, which is so fantastic, I just can’t say enough good things.  We learn and laugh constantly.

    So that’s my day trading gig in a nutshell. smile

    Where does the Yellowtail fit in?

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 11:30 AM #29

    Hey, I’ve been reading various posts about adding new unhedged long positions, and justified or not, I find myself getting worried about people.  Soooo…I just wanted to toss something out there for consideration…

    IMHO, the “down” isn’t over for the market.  What specific price level this means for AAPL and when, I have no idea.  But the broader market has never just taken a nose-dive, pulled up and continued rising on its merry way without skipping a beat.  Sooner or later, the market will very likely retest that level where it found a temporary bottom…retest to see if we bounce or break. (SPX 1100 = support).  We will also likely retest those levels where we lost former bottoms in our transition from uptrend to downtrend (SPX = 1250).  Again, bounce or break?

    This is what the market does—it oscillates between support and resistance—intraday, daily, weekly.

    There is a whole lot of uncertainty at the moment, as the short-term picture is still developing.  Up before down?  Down before up?  No clue.  I take it one day at a time, because the only parts that are clear to me from an investments perspective: THIS minute and long-term.  In between, a haze.


    EDIT: Whatever timeframe, I look to add long positions at support, hedge/short positions at resistance.

    [ Edited: 13 August 2011 11:55 AM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 11:32 AM #30

    Red shirted ensign - 13 August 2011 02:16 PM

    Where does the Yellowtail fit in?

    Red, why Happy Hour, of course! smile