Weekend Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 13 August 2011 11:42 AM #31

    lovemyipad - 13 August 2011 02:30 PM

    Hey, I’ve been reading various posts about adding new unhedged long positions, and justified or not, I find myself getting worried about people.  Soooo…I just wanted to toss something out there for consideration…

    IMHO, the “down” isn’t over for the market.  What specific price level this means for AAPL and when, I have no idea.  But the broader market has never just taken a nose-dive, pulled up and continued rising on its merry way without skipping a beat.  Sooner or later, the market will very likely retest that level where it found a temporary bottom…retest to see if we bounce or break. (SPX 1100 = support).  We will also likely retest those levels where we lost former bottoms in our transition from uptrend to downtrend (SPX = 1250).  Again, bounce or break?

    This is what the market does—it oscillates between support and resistance—intraday, daily, weekly.

    There is a whole lot of uncertainty at the moment, as the short-term picture is still developing.  Up before down?  Down before up?  No clue.  I take it one day at a time, because the only parts that are clear to me from an investments perspective: THIS minute and long-term.  In between, a haze.


    I agree. SPX @1047 should find a strong support, if not 950 is in the cards. It might take months time to get there or within a whiff.

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 12:22 PM #32

    lovemyipad - 13 August 2011 02:30 PM

    Hey, I’ve been reading various posts about adding new unhedged long positions, and justified or not, I find myself getting worried about people.  Soooo…I just wanted to toss something out there for consideration…

    IMHO, the “down” isn’t over for the market.  What specific price level this means for AAPL and when, I have no idea.  But the broader market has never just taken a nose-dive, pulled up and continued rising on its merry way without skipping a beat.  Sooner or later, the market will very likely retest that level where it found a temporary bottom…retest to see if we bounce or break. (SPX 1100 = support).  We will also likely retest those levels where we lost former bottoms in our transition from uptrend to downtrend (SPX = 1250).  Again, bounce or break?

    This is what the market does—it oscillates between support and resistance—intraday, daily, weekly.

    There is a whole lot of uncertainty at the moment, as the short-term picture is still developing.  Up before down?  Down before up?  No clue.  I take it one day at a time, because the only parts that are clear to me from an investments perspective: THIS minute and long-term.  In between, a haze.


    EDIT: Whatever timeframe, I look to add long positions at support, hedge/short positions at resistance.

    +1

    I am by no means a bear by nature, but I would be surprised if we don’t have another shoe or two left to drop in Europe. They (politicians, money managers, etc.) are all on vacation and not thinking much about it. Once all the legislators are back in September there is going to be an incredible amount of pressure for something to happen.

    You think it’s just a coincidence that Lehman crashed early September vs. August? That’s just when everyone finally got back to work and figured out how screwed up they really were (IMO).

    And if Europe isn’t enough of a reason, do you really think the bozos in Washington are going to start doing their work on the budget in a way that doesn’t freak out the markets? Get ready for lots of finger pointing and no action (although maybe no action is exactly the best course of action from the market’s perspective ... at least the bozos aren’t driving the bus).

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 12:32 PM #33

    Coors Light for me.  Yeah .. I’m not too classy but hey, I like it smile

    Just got back from a week in France.  As usual for me, the market crashed while I was there.  Very limited access to internet while there.  Just a smattering of news reports in French with some ugly numbers and charts :(  Seems to always happen when I go away.  Sigh.

    On the other hand, received some great news today.  My 401k at work has now allowed our personal choice retirement fund to allow buying individual stocks as opposed to just crappy mutual funds.  Have sell orders in for everything and will roll it all into AAPL common.  So I guess I’m looking for a pullback to buy in cheaper.

    Will most likely dollar cost average in over the next few weeks/months.

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  • Posted: 13 August 2011 12:41 PM #34

    patsy - 13 August 2011 02:12 PM
    Marcel - 13 August 2011 02:18 AM

    50% cash and holding only options sprinkled all over the Apple orchard.  I’ve got some Granny Smiths, Jonathans, Golden Crisps, and Fujis.  They’ll be fully ripe, I predict, in 2-3 months.

    I’m a buyer of AAPL common at $360 - $365.  European debt talks will probably give me that chance next week.

    Mav, Do you see appl going below 360 if market goes for a tail spin next week?

    Assuming you intended this for me, the answer is “quite possible.”  I tried closing some options Friday in anticipation of reloading on Tuesday should European debt meetings pressure the markets. 

    This weekend should produce some news that provide odds for how the markets respond next week.  If there isn’t any news, then Monday may see red to reflect the uncertainty and price in the meetings.

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 01:29 PM #35

    New rendering of Apple campus.  Looks great.  Is it the lack of curved I-Beams that made the support poles unavoidable?  Straight I-Beams would have been unacceptable with the circular shape unless hidden by false ceilings.  A design compromise perhaps?

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 01:38 PM #36

    This past week I closed some Jan 2012 $390’s and Jan 2013 $450’s

    Opened Jan 2012 $360’s and Jan 2013 $400’s.  Those positions are up a bit.  Also holding some IDCC Jan 2012 $85 calls that are up almost 70% since I bought them in early July and early August. I think Interdigital’s value will increase as companies look at their IP portfolio and start bidding on it.  This is a pretty small position.

    40% cash - and about 18% in dividend payers.

    The Jan 2012 $360’s are in play, I consider the Jan 2013 $400’s to be kindasorta long-term holdings.  Will probably pick up more of those on a downturn.  Will also likely open a small put position next week - particularly on an up move early next week.

    Done all right as an amateur with a day job, thanks in large part to sites like this one

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 01:39 PM #37

    johnG - 13 August 2011 12:41 AM

    A short interview with Louis Navellier who is bullish on Tech and Apple in particular:
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/johndobosz/2011/08/12/still-lots-of-upside-left-in-ipads-pricey-burritos-and-tractors/?partner=yahootix

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    I’ll wait for the HTML5 version. :  )

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 01:46 PM #38

    Marcel - 13 August 2011 04:29 PM

    New rendering of Apple campus.  Looks great.  Is it the lack of curved I-Beams that made the support poles unavoidable?  Straight I-Beams would have been unacceptable with the circular shape unless hidden by false ceilings.  A design compromise perhaps?

    Renderings done for city councils rarely match the finished product.  With Steve personally presenting this I’m guessing these are much closer than the norm and if it is…, wow!  Presuming 11’ between floors the centerlines on the perimeter appear to be about 40’.  You’re looking at a really LARGE space from a great distance so it’s a bit busier than it will feel in reality.  The visual thinness of the roof is contributing to the illusion quite a bit.  This thing is huge!

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    Posted: 13 August 2011 02:23 PM #39

    Edit: deleted a “slip of the finger” post.

    [ Edited: 13 August 2011 02:25 PM by Prazan ]      
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 02:25 PM #40

    zulu - 13 August 2011 01:40 PM

    Just a reminder….Andy Zaky’s Bullish Cross Live is still free this weekend!  And he has an excellent post. Here is a snippet.

    I have never (seen) a solitary instance where we haven’t testing the neck-line of a head & shoulders breakdown. And given the severity of the sell-off and the severity of the over-sold conditions, usually you get an equal pull to the upside. We’ve seen over 1,000 points of buying since Tuesday. While we did see a sell-off on Wednesday, that is a lot of buying pressure. Both Tuesday and Thursday were huge accumulation days. This means people we buying everything they could at the ask. This wasn’t a gap-up weak rally. It was significant buying pressure with massive up volume.

    This indicates institutions were getting long the market. Funds were using this sell-off as an opportunity to buy. Is it no wonder that when we see two huge accumulation days like this that we see massive rallies thereafter? What institution wants to get super long right ahead of a sell-off? Here’s a chart of major accumulation days. This chart is part of the public chart list put together by Cobra’s Market View—the technition I most respect.

    Thanks for the link. I had no idea he’d made the site available for the weekend. Here’s a line I particularly like: “Dont’ be a “technical trader” or a “value investor” or a “growth investor” or someone who focuses on “fundamentals.”  Do everything and everything well.”

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 06:02 PM #41

    Quick off topic question:  I thought I remembered someone on the board being from Norway.  I’m heading to Norway (Oslo) and Iceland tomorrow for a couple of weeks so if there is a friendly Norwegian out there, any tips for things to see/do around Oslo?

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 10:36 PM #42

    Unique - 13 August 2011 10:11 PM
    lovemyipad - 13 August 2011 03:40 AM
    Prazan - 13 August 2011 02:33 AM

    On the fundamental’s front, things continue to look great…

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/08/12/tablets-abi-echoes-wsj-story-on-ipad-rout/

    Here’s my new mantra: Look to fundamentals for what to buy, and technical analysis for when to buy it.

    +1

    Sit on oil for 10 years, can’t lose.

    I’m sitting on oil. Lost half my annual profits in two weeks. I consider it ballast for my portfolio. And because I think it’s dull as dirt, I’m rarely tempted to trade it.

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 10:43 PM #43

    patsy - 13 August 2011 02:12 PM
    Marcel - 13 August 2011 02:18 AM

    50% cash and holding only options sprinkled all over the Apple orchard.  I’ve got some Granny Smiths, Jonathans, Golden Crisps, and Fujis.  They’ll be fully ripe, I predict, in 2-3 months.

    I’m a buyer of AAPL common at $360 - $365.  European debt talks will probably give me that chance next week.

    Mav, Do you see appl going below 360 if market goes for a tail spin next week?

    Clearly, M(a)rcel (still getting used to that…hey Cl4, looks like you can change your Treehouse acct name if you wanted...patsy’s query was intended for you.

    But I might as well give my own rusty 2 cents on the matter wink.  AAPL touched the 350s last week.  Surely another stock market volatility session like that one could produce another significant dip.  It’s all about what to do should that volatility happens.

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  • Posted: 13 August 2011 11:13 PM #44

    Mav - 14 August 2011 01:43 AM
    patsy - 13 August 2011 02:12 PM
    Marcel - 13 August 2011 02:18 AM

    50% cash and holding only options sprinkled all over the Apple orchard.  I’ve got some Granny Smiths, Jonathans, Golden Crisps, and Fujis.  They’ll be fully ripe, I predict, in 2-3 months.

    I’m a buyer of AAPL common at $360 - $365.  European debt talks will probably give me that chance next week.

    Mav, Do you see appl going below 360 if market goes for a tail spin next week?

    Clearly, M(a)rcel (still getting used to that…hey Cl4, looks like you can change your Treehouse acct name if you wanted...patsy’s query was intended for you.

    But I might as well give my own rusty 2 cents on the matter wink.  AAPL touched the 350s last week.  Surely another stock market volatility session like that one could produce another significant dip.  It’s all about what to do should that volatility happens.

    Thanks Guys for your insights. I was watching Nouriel’s Wallstreet Journal interview and he was mentioning that stock market will either re-accelerate and pierce thru with escape velocity or it might go and do a 20% correction. Next two weeks is the telling time.

    Link to the interview: http://online.wsj.com/video/roubini-warns-of-global-recession-risk/C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_mpvidcar_1

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 11:38 PM #45

    patsy - 14 August 2011 02:13 AM

    snip…........
    Link to the interview: http://online.wsj.com/video/roubini-warns-of-global-recession-risk/C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_mpvidcar_1

    WOW, that was incredibly DEPRESSING! You have to give it Dr. Doom for laying on the doom!  Time to stock up on guns, ammo, and canned food! 

      cheers
        JohnG