Daydreaming…

  • Posted: 13 August 2011 09:42 AM

    Hi all

    Many (most?) of us are heavily invested in AAPL, either straight long or by heavy emphasis in a day/swing trading strategy.  Many (most?) of us have had and continue to have a great time generally, benefitting from tremendous EPS growth and great, but not quite so tremendous, PPS growth. 

    So it got me to thinking on this thank-god-that’s-over weekend, what would be the ideal story for AAPL over the next 6-12 months, with at least a smattering of realistic possibility?  I’m sure my thoughts below are just scratching the surface, so feel free to join in…  These are in no specific order of preference, just general ramblings.

    - SJ returns to full time work
    - Apple announces SJ to take chairman and visionary role, TC to become permanent CEO
    - iPhone 5 releases and launches in Sept, new form factor, rave reviews
    - iOS 5 launches same timeframe, some unannounced features inc Digital Assistant, and beginnings of an iWallet program via NFC
    - iCloud iPhone (or any cheaper version) launches to reduce the gap under the “umbrella”
    - iPhones launched with China Mobile in Q212
    - New iPods released, simless 3G option in iPod Touch
    - Samsung loses Euro and Aussie iPad infringement cases, precedent is set for Apple to go after other vendors
    - Again on precedent of above, Apple also goes after Galaxy S II Euro injunction, add another reference case, rinse and repeat
    - Apple wins HTC software infringement case, applies royalty, rinses and repeats
    - As result of growing royalty liabilities and increasing pain for Google (case via Oracle, etc), Android platform loses momentum
    - Apple announces split 10:1, AAPL becomes cheap to less-savvy retail investors, investor audience grows
    - Apple announces 3% annual dividend, investor audience grows some more

    Well I think we’re up to about $750/share already.  See, it’s easy!!

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 11:24 AM #1

    LongAAPLsince02 - 13 August 2011 12:42 PM

    Hi all

    Many (most?) of us are heavily invested in AAPL, either straight long or by heavy emphasis in a day/swing trading strategy.  Many (most?) of us have had and continue to have a great time generally, benefitting from tremendous EPS growth and great, but not quite so tremendous, PPS growth. 

    So it got me to thinking on this thank-god-that’s-over weekend, what would be the ideal story for AAPL over the next 6-12 months, with at least a smattering of realistic possibility?  I’m sure my thoughts below are just scratching the surface, so feel free to join in…  These are in no specific order of preference, just general ramblings.

    - SJ returns to full time work
    - Apple announces SJ to take chairman and visionary role, TC to become permanent CEO
    - iPhone 5 releases and launches in Sept, new form factor, rave reviews
    - iOS 5 launches same timeframe, some unannounced features inc Digital Assistant, and beginnings of an iWallet program via NFC
    - iCloud iPhone (or any cheaper version) launches to reduce the gap under the “umbrella”
    - iPhones launched with China Mobile in Q212
    - New iPods released, simless 3G option in iPod Touch
    - Samsung loses Euro and Aussie iPad infringement cases, precedent is set for Apple to go after other vendors
    - Again on precedent of above, Apple also goes after Galaxy S II Euro injunction, add another reference case, rinse and repeat
    - Apple wins HTC software infringement case, applies royalty, rinses and repeats
    - As result of growing royalty liabilities and increasing pain for Google (case via Oracle, etc), Android platform loses momentum
    - Apple announces split 10:1, AAPL becomes cheap to less-savvy retail investors, investor audience grows
    - Apple announces 3% annual dividend, investor audience grows some more

    Well I think we’re up to about $750/share already.  See, it’s easy!!

    Yes, it all makes sense…..and logical! :wink:

    let’s add this : icloud becomes consumer standard, adding tens of millions of new customers. Apple expands cloud locker to include movies, tv shows and other customer data. Moves cloud services to Enterprise, where it is roundly accepted. Netflix ends year with share price of 32 bucks.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 12:45 PM #2

    Apple TV
    New form factor iMacs and MacBook pro
    New feature sets in mobile devices (iMaps,projector for walls)
    App store and console gaming for apple tv
    Apple turns it’s focus to India in a similar fashion to what it is doing with china today
    Apple retains more human capital - why are they building such a bigger office hq???

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 01:55 PM #3

    Nagrani - 13 August 2011 03:45 PM

    why are they building such a bigger office hq???

    1.)To get as many as they can under one roof…,it still isn’t large enough considering growth.
    2.)  Steve said a long time ago that he hates their existing campus and that it doesn’t inspire creativity.

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    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 02:29 PM #4

    LongAAPLsince02 - 13 August 2011 12:42 PM

    Hi all


    - SJ returns to full time work

    I don’t think this is going to happen. I hope he holds on long enough to see the iPad/post-PC thing play out ( probably 3 to 5 years).

    - Apple announces SJ to take chairman and visionary role, TC to become permanent CEO

    I think this is already a done deal. If you’re waiting for a formal press release, I expect one after the biography is published (Feb?) and before the next shareholders’ meeting (April?)

    - iPhone 5 releases and launches in Sept, new form factor, rave reviews

    Maybe not until October. What I’d really like to see is a event-less release of iPhone with a CPU speed bump and more memory, but that’s probably two years away. I think iPhone 6 will be NFC and LTE and knock-your-socks-off release, maybe second gen voice control (get it right, please).

    - iOS 5 launches same timeframe, some unannounced features inc Digital Assistant, and beginnings of an iWallet program via NFC
    Makes its appearance at WWDC 2012 for fall release.

    - iCloud iPhone (or any cheaper version) launches to reduce the gap under the “umbrella”
    Maybe so. More likely in the 12-18 month timeframe.

    - iPhones launched with China Mobile in Q212

    Probably sooner.

    - New iPods released, simless 3G option in iPod Touch

    Major milestone will be if there’s no fall music event for the new iPods. It’s more than time for that to happen. If there is a fall event this year, I suspect it will be SJ swan song, victory lap.

    - Samsung loses Euro and Aussie iPad infringement cases, precedent is set for Apple to go after other vendors
    - Again on precedent of above, Apple also goes after Galaxy S II Euro injunction, add another reference case, rinse and repeat

    I think this is going to take two to three years to play out.

    - Apple wins HTC software infringement case, applies royalty, rinses and repeats

    This is going to be an earthquake (with tsunami), but it’ll take a few years for the enormity of the cataclysm to be aparent.

    - As result of growing royalty liabilities and increasing pain for Google (case via Oracle, etc), Android platform loses momentum

    I think it is another year or two before Google starts monetizing Android directly (as opposed to their current model), and then all hell breaks loose.

    - Apple announces split 10:1, AAPL becomes cheap to less-savvy retail investors, investor audience grows

    Not going to happen. Hold your breath and see how far you get with this.

    - Apple announces 3% annual dividend, investor audience grows some more

    Also not going to happen. What may happen is Apple comes clean about what they’re doing with all that cash: building supply chain infrastructure lock-out. And Wall Street finally shuts the fuck up.

    Well I think we’re up to about $750/share already.  We’ll see that, but it’ll take more
    like five years as the PE compression goes beyond belief.

    See, it’s easy!!

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 03:21 PM #5

    I can see about half of the main list coming true in the next 14 months.

         
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    Posted: 13 August 2011 03:58 PM #6

    Don’t forget the real Apple TV late next year.

    I also think that once the Brazil factory truly comes on line, Apple will sell more iPads then many of us dreamed about.

    I found out yesterday that one of the boards I sit on will give me an iPad.  I told them to send them all back and wait for the iPad 3.smile

    I don think we will see $600 in 18 months.

         
  • Posted: 13 August 2011 04:23 PM #7

    Noticed aug 22nd-26th week open @ Mscone Center:
    http://www.moscone.com/site/do/event/list
    Well I can dream too can’t I? AAPL announces event Mon morning, market rallies off probable Merkel/Sarkozy monday night meeting, QE3, trillions come off the sidelines,
    sentiment changes on a dime from fear of loss to fear of missing out, AAPL explodes higher…remember, the Fed wants this market MUCH higher.

         
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    Posted: 14 August 2011 08:29 AM #8

    Peter Oppenheimer retires.

    THAT ALONE, to me would the “news of the year.”

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2011 10:18 AM #9

    mountainpeaks - 13 August 2011 07:23 PM

    Noticed aug 22nd-26th week open @ Mscone Center:
    http://www.moscone.com/site/do/event/list
    Well I can dream too can’t I? AAPL announces event Mon morning, market rallies off probable Merkel/Sarkozy monday night meeting, QE3, trillions come off the sidelines,
    sentiment changes on a dime from fear of loss to fear of missing out, AAPL explodes higher…remember, the Fed wants this market MUCH higher.

    I noticed this as well but why would Apple debunk Sept. 7 if they could surprise with something earlier?  Of course, it’s possible that Jim Darlymple’s Apple’s source was unauthorized.

    If you believe Apple HQ wanted Jim D. to take Sept. 7 off the table, then it suggests Apple has a later arrival for a media event, not an earlier one.  It’s curious, as I expect a “new product transition” in the fourth quarter as mentioned in the last earnings call.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2011 02:16 PM #10

    Look at this headline from AllThingsD:

    October. Oc ? to ? ber. Repeat After Me: Apple iPhone 5 to Launch in October.

    A respected arm of the Wall Street Journal does not write a headline like that unless they know something.

         
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    Posted: 14 August 2011 02:44 PM #11

    FalKirk - 14 August 2011 05:16 PM

    Look at this headline from AllThingsD:

    October. Oc ? to ? ber. Repeat After Me: Apple iPhone 5 to Launch in October.

    A respected arm of the Wall Street Journal does not write a headline like that unless they know something.

    Well this means that we should expect revenue to be conservative and actually in line with guidance for this quarter.  This will give us 6 more weeks of volatile stock fluctuations.

         
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    Posted: 14 August 2011 03:56 PM #12

    -Foxconn’s manufacturing plant is up and running in Brazil.    Improves build capacity for the iPad 50% and iPhone plant soon to follow.

    -Apple plans major retail expansion in Brazil to rival China.

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    Tim Cook: iPad is 91% of all tablet web traffic. I don’t know what these other tablets are doing.

         
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    Posted: 14 August 2011 04:06 PM #13

    omacvi - 14 August 2011 05:44 PM

    Well this means that we should expect revenue to be conservative and actually in line with guidance for this quarter.  This will give us 6 more weeks of volatile stock fluctuations.

    Not necessarely so. Most people, I would say more than 99% of the persons living in the free world are not iPhone, Android or Blackberrys entousiasts visiting iPhone, Android or Blackberrys news site every day.

    Most are not aware of a new iPhone, Android or Blackberry coming. I’m sure Apple is selling lots of iPhone as we’re talking. Besides, iPad are selling like hot cakes fresh from the oven. I bought myself one 2 weeks ago (16 gig, wifi), the Apple store (Montreal) was jampacked and a lot of people were enquiring about/buying iPads. And iPhones. smile

         
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    Posted: 15 August 2011 12:18 AM #14

    afterglow - 14 August 2011 06:56 PM

    -Foxconn’s manufacturing plant is up and running in Brazil.    Improves build capacity for the iPad 50% and iPhone plant soon to follow.

    -Apple plans major retail expansion in Brazil to rival China.

    Let’s see da link please.

      JohnG

         
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    Posted: 15 August 2011 09:40 AM #15

    johnG - 15 August 2011 03:18 AM
    afterglow - 14 August 2011 06:56 PM

    -Foxconn’s manufacturing plant is up and running in Brazil.    Improves build capacity for the iPad 50% and iPhone plant soon to follow.

    -Apple plans major retail expansion in Brazil to rival China.

    Let’s see da link please.

      JohnG

    Wasn’t the Topic of the thread “Daydreaming”?  And wishful thinking on my part.

    Signature

    Tim Cook: iPad is 91% of all tablet web traffic. I don’t know what these other tablets are doing.