AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 25 August 2011 12:02 AM

    Apple closed New York trading on Wednesday at $376.18. After the market’s close Apple announced executive changes. Tim Cook, formerly Apple’s COO, has been promoted to the CEO position. Apple co-founder and former CEO Steve Jobs has been elected board chair.

    The shares swooned on the news in AH trading activity. How will the shares respond late morning following an expected gap down at the market open in New York?

    [ Edited: 27 August 2011 12:16 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 25 August 2011 12:58 AM #1

    Whenever I would evangelize AAPL stock, a common refrain among those who didn’t own AAPL would be the expression of fear of today’s news.  I’m sure many of them wanted to own it, they loved the product,  but again, many were afraid of owning post-Steve Jobs as CEO. Fear of the unknown is a powerful force.

    It would be a mistake, I think, to underestimate the number of investors who have been on the sidelines.  Most of us who own it know that Apple is in supremely good hands.  Institutional holders certainly know it and they own and control 70% of AAPL.  They don’t sound like sellers to me.

    Retail investors less knowledgeable about AAPL are the weak hands.  There will be sellers tomorrow, ignorant of how well AAPL is positioned to grow in sales and profitability over the next 2 years, at a minimum.  And we have those on margin who may be forced to sell on the slide.  Maybe and maybe not.

    A possible scenario—perhaps an optimistic one—is that buyers on the sidelines outnumber those who want to trade places with them.  Just maybe we see AAPL chased into the green, which would be the ultimate refutal of criticism over Apple’s perceived lack of succession plan.  Steve Jobs didn’t invest his life into a company he started with Steve Wozniak without making DAMN SURE it would continue to flourish and change the world.

    Just this Monday, we were at $355 LOD WITH Steve Jobs as CEO.  Today, Apple held $350 in AH trading of 1.6M shares.  We closed at $357.  I’m somewhat encouraged by this. 

    The foregoing about stock price is really an aside, for whatever happens going forward, Steve Jobs has already changed my life for the better and for that I’ll be thanking him by email.

    [ Edited: 25 August 2011 01:09 AM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 25 August 2011 01:05 AM #2

    Thursday

    R4       400.33
      midpoint   396.15
    R3       391.97
      midpoint   387.79
    R2       383.61
      midpoint   381.75
    R1       379.89
      midpoint   377.57
    PP       375.25
      midpoint   373.39
    S1       371.53
      midpoint   369.21
    S2       366.89
      midpoint   362.71
    S3       358.53
      midpoint   354.35
    S4       350.17

         
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    Posted: 25 August 2011 01:10 AM #3

    If AAPL drops to a level around where we started the week just a few days ago, then that would be an amazing result for such an emotionally huge negative event in the history of Apple.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
  • Posted: 25 August 2011 01:14 AM #4

    adamthompson3232 - 25 August 2011 04:07 AM
    Marcel - 25 August 2011 03:58 AM

    A possible scenario—perhaps an optimistic one—is that buyers on the sidelines outnumber those who want to trade places with them.  Just maybe we see AAPL chased into the green.


    Apple held $350 in AH trading of 1.6M shares.  We were at $355 LOD just on Monday with S.J as CEO.  We closed AH at $357.  I’m somewhat encouraged by this. 

     

    I think the first part of this is outside the realm of possibility. Although I agree there are many who never invested out of of fear about SJ’s health, I don’t think many, if any, of them will invest tomorrow out of “relief” that the unknown is now known. If anything, this will enforce the fear they had and confirm they were “right”. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think that’s how most of them will react.

    I completely agree with the 2nd point about AH not doing too badly. I’m actually shocked it held so well. We’ll see what happens tomorrow. I have some coin lined up and am going to do some “crazy” (margin) stuff this week. I’m buying blocks of 50 shares at a time beginning tomorrow shortly after the open. Will hold some powder too for more clarity after Big Ben on Friday.

    Well, if AAPL holds $350 and the non-holders of AAPL see there’s no 15%-20% sell off, they might want to catch the moving train…

    I think many of them could have been waiting for a buying opportunity beyond 10%.  They may not get it.  We will see.

         
  • Posted: 25 August 2011 01:24 AM #5

    Unique - 25 August 2011 03:47 AM

    My noob analysis,

    Friday marks the Bernanke speech, going all in tomorrow on a short term dip may be risky for the short term, but longer term we are looking at AAPL trading 500+ next year based on fundamentals.

    With any bad news from B, AAPL will tank along with indices on friday and continue its bearish multi-month chart.

    Tomorrow and friday are going to be roller coaster rides.


    My range for tomorrow morning’s dip is 355-340. Maybe I’m too bearish, but we’ll see

    When we bounce in the morning, it’s going to be at least 4-7 dollar bounce right back up, on the short term dip and retest. Going to be a very very fast market tomorrow, be careful traders and investors.

    Good night all, going to sleep early. smile

    I’m less worried about Friday, as Bernanke is acutely aware of how skittish the market is and will measure his words carefully, keeping the door open for optimism on what the Fed might do, if needed.  More importantly, I think expectations of what Bernanke says are lower than they were at the beginning of the week.  Expectations by WS for QE3 are off the table, IMO.

         
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    Posted: 25 August 2011 01:25 AM #6

    I will be stunned if it goes to 34anything. The futures are not bad and a decent jobs number in the morning should keep things in check.

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    Posted: 25 August 2011 01:28 AM #7

    If history is our guide, then here is what may take place.

    On Friday Jan 14 aapl hit an intraday high of 348.

    SJ announced his medical leave on Monday a holiday.

    The next day Jan 18 aapl hit an intraday low of 326.  6% below the high of Friday.

    It recovered only to hit 326 four days later as we dealt with the earnings release roller coaster.

    I see a similar move.  hedge funds will take advantage of days like these.

    We should hit 350 tomorrow, recover a bit and then hit it again next week.

    By then I should have some cash to buy a few more shares. :-D

    I am not worried about SJ at all.

    It is a good day not a bad day.  He will continue to lead as chairman of the board.

    The stock will be compressed via p/e for a couple of years as WS looks for major changes.

    The company will continue to grow and when the economy turns around in 3 years watch out for that 25 p/e. 8-)

         
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    Posted: 25 August 2011 01:51 AM #8

    Luckily sold some of my 13 LEAPS today (at the HOD) and will leg back into those (and shares) beginning tomorrow. I “expect” low 350’s for sure.

    I’ll also have stink bids in at 337 and 347 just in case people go crazy while I’m not watching. Will only deploy ~1/3 of my cash on Thur as I suspect there’s more fun to be had Friday and next week.

    Looking longer term:
    I think this CEO uncertainty has been a significant driver of the depressed valuation in aapl. Overall, I’m very happy this saga is now “history” and I wouldn’t be surprised to see slightly more rational valuation in aapl after the initial shock wears off.

      cheers to the longs
          johnG

         
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    Posted: 25 August 2011 01:57 AM #9

    When does the Frankfurt exchange open? In 2 more hours? Will be interesting to see how APPL holds up…

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
  • Posted: 25 August 2011 02:09 AM #10

    While AAPL hit 350 AH, I’m placing my bet for around 355 since I think everyone and their brother wants to buy the dip.

         
  • Posted: 25 August 2011 02:18 AM #11

    SJ & Apple didn’t make the announcement today as a random event.  If they did, it will be the first time.  I expect a rapid series of good news announcements beginning tomorrow.

    1.  Invitations go out to new product presentations.
    2.  Announcement about Sprint (& T-Mobile).
    3.  Announcement about new carrier (s) in China.
    4.  Announce stock split.
    5.  Further expansion in North Carolina
    6.  Plant openning in Brazil

    Who knows what we might hear but it will begin this week.  Count on it!

         
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    Posted: 25 August 2011 02:33 AM #13

    On an unrelated note, Marcel, I did get around to calling for reinstatement of the Uptick Rule using that handy SEC link you provided.  Thanks.  Hopefully my submission went through - after I hit “submit” I just went right over to the main page with no confirmation.

    9:30AM EST is gonna be an interesting time.  I think I’ve got the beginnings of a stupid strategy that’s not entirely insane.

    First order of business:  The possible conversion of my second batch of AAPL common (bought at 350 or so?. and which I specifically invested in to reduce risk) into rocket fuel for options.  I never said I was the sharpest tool in the shed!

    The remaining precious little “dry powder” I have (we can’t all be as awesome at market timing and investing as AT, sadly) will be kept on hold just in case.  My AAPL common conversion plan allows me to (1) gorge myself on risk (even though I already feel sick) while (2) avoiding margin during this potentially extreme-volatility/risk time.  Having my portfolio take a significant temporary hit (hey look, it’s Friday again) is pretty much assured, and who knows, I could go to -50% from 2010 by year end (*hopes not*).  Well, at least I won’t face any margin calls with my current Evel Knievel plan.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 25 August 2011 02:54 AM #14

    adamthompson3232 - 25 August 2011 05:47 AM

    Oh yeah, two more things for you, Mav:

    1. Do you want to take me up on the best of $9.00 EPS or higher even with no iPhone 4 this quarter?

    2. Do you want to bet this point is moot because iPhone 4 will in fact hit this quarter? I think it will. SJ and Apple knew this CEO transition was coming and I think these cheeky folks set us up for an upside surprise after dampening expectations. TC said as much on the last call and I think it’s coming, and soon.

    I’ll hold the money for you two guys. I’m impartial and totally trustworthy.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 25 August 2011 02:55 AM #15

    1.  I can tell I’m not as rich as you AT so no bets of any kind.  I can only agree to the usual, wait-who-fired-the-first-shot-to-start-this-bitter-earnings-smackdown-fight-heck-who-cares-it’s fun-and-I’m-winning-anyway…thing.  wink  As far as THAT goes, it’s on!  You deserve a chance to tie this game up.

    I don’t estimate until quarter-end, so I can’t say $9 EPS isn’t happening.  We may be in for a data point or two so I’m gonna make sure I’m fully armed before I get my final estimates done.

    2.  We may be on the same side of the iPhone 5 in September bet.  Oppenheimer would be a fool, and the company would rightly be called out on it, if he invoked a “future product transition” that didn’t actually happen in that quarter (see:  iPod touch and iPhone 4, which were “preannounced” by Oppenheimer and then delivered before financial damage could be done by those products’ continued absences).  Remind me where TC’s hints were, though?

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.