Weekend Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 27 August 2011 11:29 AM #31

    Mercel, I would be right there with you. I had talked to Eric and he was thinking 6/sh and that was my target for entering. Trump caused the slide to slow/stop. Then WB came in on his white diamond encrusted horse and there you go, I am not in BAC.

    Here is the thing Mercel, when Doug Kass says the bottom is in I believe him. He also predicted BAC to double next year. This guy is not papa bear, that title probably goes to Roubini, but he is for sure a grizzly.

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    Posted: 27 August 2011 11:31 AM #32

    mbeauch - 27 August 2011 02:13 PM

    The unemployment number was skewed by the VZ workers the last 2 weeks, that kinda paints a different picture. I am not saying things are great, but things are definitely not as bad as some would like us to believe. The one fact we know is that recent earnings have been great and that is what truly values a stock. One thing I understand is that when billionaire(s) start publicly buying shares of supposedly the worst stock in the world, things are not as bad as we are being led to believe. The media moves the markets without reason.

    You are absolutely right. smile

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2011 11:39 AM #33

    mbeauch - 27 August 2011 02:29 PM

    Mercel, I would be right there with you. I had talked to Eric and he was thinking 6/sh and that was my target for entering. Trump caused the slide to slow/stop. Then WB came in on his white diamond encrusted horse and there you go, I am not in BAC.

    Here is the thing Mercel, when Doug Kass says the bottom is in I believe him. He also predicted BAC to double next year. This guy is not papa bear, that title probably goes to Roubini, but he is for sure a grizzly.

    Doug Kass is one to listen to because he shaves his bear fur on occasion.  Roubini, not so much, as his coat just gets thicker and fuller.

         
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    Posted: 27 August 2011 12:57 PM #34

    lovemyipad - 27 August 2011 01:56 PM
    mbeauch - 27 August 2011 03:05 AM

    I know it is Friday, but has anyone paid attention to the futures.

    DOW +148
    Nas +53

    What the hack is going on? :bugeyed:

    I don’t know, but when the broader market rallies in the absence of corresponding good news, I get paranoid about the potential for “pump and dump” operations.  Corrections are usually a multi-month process, not a touch-and-go thing.

    Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist… but “orchestration” does come to mind…

    If there is to be a “dump,” when do you think it will take place?

    Check out bearish, grandfatherly Smithers (says “most analysts aren’t interested in truth”) being interviewed by sexy Maryam:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/74353610/

    [ Edited: 27 August 2011 01:14 PM by jjjz ]

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    Posted: 27 August 2011 01:13 PM #35

    lovemyipad - 26 August 2011 11:52 PM

    P.S. Mercel, I missed you!  Welcome back! :D

    Yes, Marcel, we missed you.  :-D

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2011 01:16 PM #36

    madmaxroi - 27 August 2011 04:13 PM
    lovemyipad - 26 August 2011 11:52 PM

    P.S. Mercel, I missed you!  Welcome back! :D

    Yes, Marcel, we missed you.  :-D

    Hope you can swim there Titanic boy…

         
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    Posted: 27 August 2011 01:23 PM #37

    The Macalope is always worth a read but this week is especially fitting…Deftly chopping up the idiot pundits


    The Macalope Weekly: Comfort food
    Posted on Aug 27, 2011 7:00 am

    http://www.macworld.com/article/161981/2011/08/macalope_comfort_food.html

    [ Edited: 27 August 2011 01:34 PM by Red Shirted Ensign ]

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 27 August 2011 03:47 PM #38

    Unique - 27 August 2011 04:14 PM
    mbeauch - 27 August 2011 02:13 PM

    One thing I understand is that when billionaire(s) start publicly buying shares of supposedly the worst stock in the world, things are not as bad as we are being led to believe. The media moves the markets without reason.

    In Sept 2008, Buffett invested 5B in GS, two months later, GS hit a low of 47 bucks from 130+.

    Waiting for the BAC bailout.

    I rather buy RIMM than BAC.

    I now resume my paranoid state…

         
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    Posted: 27 August 2011 04:06 PM #39

    Random thoughts…

    I fully expected the market to pull back soon after QE2 ended.  Similar thing happened last summer when QE1 ended.  But I have no idea whether this is analogous to Summer 2010, Summer 2008, Summer 2007, or none of these.

    I am NOT AT ALL worried about AAPL long-term.  I am unclear on the short-term direction of the broader market.

    I am concerned that given the uncertainty in the market, if we get up to SPX 1200-1250, we may see a sell-off.  I expect AAPL to fare better than most.  I will breathe easier if we can get above and stay above SPX 1260.

    AAPL needs to take out 385 this week.  Get above and stay above that level.

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2011 04:15 PM #40

    Am I the only one that wonders if Wall Street will have power on Monday? Announcements have been made that the market will be open, but what happens if the power grid goes black? Do all those hedge fund managers have sump pumps down in the basement. Many of them are underwater for the year already.

         
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    Posted: 27 August 2011 04:38 PM #41

    Unique - 27 August 2011 04:14 PM

    In Sept 2008, Buffett invested 5B in GS, two months later, GS hit a low of 47 bucks from 130+.

    Waiting for the BAC bailout.

    I rather buy RIMM than BAC.


    Unique, WB did not especially get into GS for the share price, it was the special dividend that he was going to get. You have to also remember that they were not shares, they were of the preferred warrants. It is also why GS paid through the nose to get out of the deal this spring. The one thing I have learned over the past couple of years is that it is easy for outsiders to make claims about these banks that are just not true. Good grief, if Meredith Whitney is warming to BAC, Bac can’t be that bad. No stock should ever trade below book value.

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  • Posted: 27 August 2011 04:46 PM #42

    willrob - 27 August 2011 07:15 PM

    Am I the only one that wonders if Wall Street will have power on Monday? Announcements have been made that the market will be open, but what happens if the power grid goes black? Do all those hedge fund managers have sump pumps down in the basement. Many of them are underwater for the year already.

    The storm will pass over lower Manhattan about 8am Sunday. There’s plenty of time for services to be restored in the event the local area loses power. By late Sunday evening the rain will have stopped and the strong winds will have moved north.

         
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    Posted: 27 August 2011 04:51 PM #43

    Unique - 27 August 2011 04:14 PM
    mbeauch - 27 August 2011 02:13 PM

    Love, WS shaved off 2000 pts without real justification. The unemployment number was skewed by the VZ workers the last 2 weeks, that kinda paints a different picture. I am not saying things are great, but things are definitely not as bad as some would like us to believe. The one fact we know is that recent earnings have been great and that is what truly values a stock. One thing I understand is that when billionaire(s) start publicly buying shares of supposedly the worst stock in the world, things are not as bad as we are being led to believe. The media moves the markets without reason.

    In Sept 2008, Buffett invested 5B in GS, two months later, GS hit a low of 47 bucks from 130+.

    Waiting for the BAC bailout.

    I rather buy RIMM than BAC.

    +1. And let’s not forget the Oracle’s investment in COP that cost BH billions. Billionaires aren’t always right - Paulson’s fund has lost like 40% this year.

    BAC is toxic. I have a policy: Never invest in companies that aren’t profitable, let alone zombies of toxic debt, no matter how “cheap” the stock looks. There is a difference between cheap and value.

    But yes, I do think the market is oversold, barring major EU bank meltdowns.

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  • Posted: 27 August 2011 05:33 PM #44

    I may not be entirely wrong to think that most of BAC’s daily volume is day traders skimming off a few thousand here and there. Or swing traders holding for a week or two for a two dollar bump. Serious investors aren’t buying the plain vanilla stock. The dividend paying shares seem more invest-able.

         
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    Posted: 27 August 2011 06:03 PM #45

    We must remember that this is BK money, not coming out of WB’s checkbook. It is always prudent to put some money in a speculative play that has a high ROI. Just sayin, downside may be $4, but upside is $15. Tasty to me for a couple of thousand shares. BAC made me a very, very, very nice return in 2009, I kinda feel like I owe them a little love.  :innocent:

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.