Weekend Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 28 August 2011 12:37 AM #61

    Mercel - 28 August 2011 03:31 AM
    Mav - 28 August 2011 01:48 AM
    Red Shirted Ensign - 28 August 2011 12:54 AM

    Horace is beginning an analysis of Apple’s P/E.

    http://www.asymco.com/

    My knee-jerk reaction to the article (did Asymco write it or the new contributor?) is that it completely, utterly ignores Q2 and the ongoing Q3.  “Average” P/E analysis?  I can tell you one thing, we’re not anywhere near 18 now.  How about what Apple’s trading for, right now?

    Hell, I’m not even using a P/E of 18 anymore.  But that doesn’t mean he’s wrong using it—a P/E of 15 is capitulation.

    Maybe you need to re-read the article.  I believe the mystery author (I mean I think I know who it is but without the byline I’m not 100% sure) muddled his point about institutions having proper “respect” for AAPL based on historical P/E averages over time.  Except that in the context of the here and now and given Apple’s past and future earnings performance and P/E trends, P/E averages that don’t even go up to calendar Q2 are about as meaningful as comScore’s 3-month averages of mobile OS share.

    And perhaps the author failed to consider how Apple’s revs and earnings growth rates can actually be multiples of its so-called peers.  In Acer’s case, you can’t even get a logical result, since it’s running a loss.

    [ Edited: 28 August 2011 12:40 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2011 12:38 AM #62

    Mercel - 27 August 2011 10:23 PM

    This is worth posting again and it has been updated.  This probably could have been one of us growing up.  And one of the pics has Steve sporting the biggest smile I’ve ever seen from him.  It warms the heart.

    http://allenpaltrow.tumblr.com/post/9375814057/my-experience-with-jobs-and-apple

    Love it!  Love It!  LOVE IT! smile

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2011 02:38 AM #63

    Apple HDTV:  Get ready for it.  Be sure to watch the vid

    http://venturebeat.com/2011/08/26/apple-television-2012/

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2011 02:50 AM #64

    lovemyipad - 28 August 2011 03:38 AM
    Mercel - 27 August 2011 10:23 PM

    This is worth posting again and it has been updated.  This probably could have been one of us growing up.  And one of the pics has Steve sporting the biggest smile I’ve ever seen from him.  It warms the heart.

    http://allenpaltrow.tumblr.com/post/9375814057/my-experience-with-jobs-and-apple

    Love it!  Love It!  LOVE IT! smile

    Well, it shouldn’t come as any surprise then that I’m in the love business   :-D

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2011 02:53 AM #65

    Steve’s being love-bombed with another tribute:  This time it’s in the form of a run.

    http://www.cultofmac.com/running-a-21km-apple-logo-as-a-tribute-to-steve-jobs/111017

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2011 02:56 AM #66

    Mercel - 28 August 2011 05:38 AM

    Apple HDTV:  Get ready for it.  Be sure to watch the vid

    http://venturebeat.com/2011/08/26/apple-television-2012/

    Mercel, I haven’t been around your Apple HDTV mania wink nearly as much as others at AFB, so how about the quick sales pitch.

    Value proposition?

    Pricing that won’t make the $799 HDTV crowd gag?

    Screen/OS/storage specs?

    “Just like any other HDTV” in terms of playing nice with Blu-Ray, console systems, etc?

    Market opportunity in terms of billions of dollars a quarter?

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2011 10:40 AM #67

    Mercel - 28 August 2011 05:50 AM

    Love it!  Love It!  LOVE IT! smile

    Well, it shouldn’t come as any surprise then that I’m in the love business   :-D


    Your a pimp, I knew it. :-D

    [ Edited: 28 August 2011 10:42 AM by mbeauch ]

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2011 11:23 AM #68

    adamthompson3232 - 28 August 2011 04:46 AM
    lovemyipad - 28 August 2011 03:38 AM
    Mercel - 27 August 2011 10:23 PM

    This is worth posting again and it has been updated.  This probably could have been one of us growing up.  And one of the pics has Steve sporting the biggest smile I’ve ever seen from him.  It warms the heart.

    http://allenpaltrow.tumblr.com/post/9375814057/my-experience-with-jobs-and-apple

    Love it!  Love It!  LOVE IT! smile

    Love your TA. LOVE IT!:)

    AT - really? Why dont you PM your flirts instead of making the rest of us nauseous?

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2011 11:46 AM #69

    Well, it appears that MBeauch was right about Irene. He stated his bearish view on the severity of the hurricane a few days ago. It was a good blow but no game changer. People were prepared and handled it well.

    Business as usual on Monday, for sure.

    (I am sure some of the folks in the Southeast are watching this tv coverage with a chuckle. CNN is still going with the ‘surviving hurricane Irene’ tag line)

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2011 11:50 AM #70

    Mav - 28 August 2011 05:56 AM
    Mercel - 28 August 2011 05:38 AM

    Apple HDTV:  Get ready for it.  Be sure to watch the vid

    http://venturebeat.com/2011/08/26/apple-television-2012/

    Mercel, I haven’t been around your Apple HDTV mania wink nearly as much as others at AFB, so how about the quick sales pitch.

    Value proposition?

    Pricing that won’t make the $799 HDTV crowd gag?

    Screen/OS/storage specs?

    “Just like any other HDTV” in terms of playing nice with Blu-Ray, console systems, etc?

    Market opportunity in terms of billions of dollars a quarter?

    The article does a nice job of highlighting the value proposition and vision.  But quickly, here goes:

    Pricing:  Apple’s retail operations (online and bricks and mortar) will capture margin that is lost by every other TV maker out there.  There isn’t another vendor/manufacturer out that has the trust and confidence to spend money at this level.  Too, Apple is going to find a partner who wants to avoid the bloody price war with commodity TVs sold in Best Buy today. Candidates?  Sony needs Apple more than Apple needs Sony.

    No cords (Airplay).  No component, composite, HDMI cabling—the savings are significant if you’ve been suckered with some of what Monster sells.

    User Interface:  Comcast cable has a 60’s interface that is dreadful, with matching customer service.  Integrating Apple TV fixes that instantly.

    Blu Ray?  A 1080p picture looks great to my eyes.  But you’ll still be able to connect your Blu Ray, just like I do my laser disc player (get the picture?)

    Content:  iTunes, Netflix, and more will come, including internet-based options that minimize/avoid the balkanization of current set top boxes and cable operators.

    Aesthetics:  Apple can win more smiles in the living room than any Sony/Samsung designer.  A touch-screen is not out of the question.

    Remote control:  You already own it, whether it’s an iPod touch, iPad or iPhone.  While your surfing on the iPad for something else, your family or guests are undisturbed, watching Apple HDTV.  Find something better?  Boom!  One touch moves the screen from iPad to Apple HDTV (iTV anyone?).  Try that with your Comcast/ToysRUS remote.

    User Experience:  I have a Bose lifestyle system (V30 I think) that does a credible job of simplifying the connections and managing the video sources (e.g. Apple TV, Cable, Blu Ray, etc.) and offers 5:1 audio.  It cost over $2,000.  This creates pricing room for Apple, which can also sell airplay-enabled speakers as an accessory.  Accessories costing $300-$500 with Apple could replace all of what Bose is selling for $2,000+

    Pricing?  It’s not going to be a problem here.  Prices have reached a level that make HD affordable.  Tim Cook will drive production efficiency that creates margin.  He is a master at this just as Jobs is a Zen Master (“the goal of action is contemplation”).

    Apple gives deep thought on how to add value with its products.  The market is enormous (how many TVs do YOU own?).  The living room is the next frontier to win, leveraging all of Apple’s ecosystem and opportunities, only some of which have been mentioned here.

    [ Edited: 28 August 2011 12:21 PM by ByeTMO ]
         
  • Posted: 28 August 2011 01:12 PM #71

    I would not expect Apple to do anything close to “me too” in this market.  Plus they would want sustainable differentiation,  as they have in all of their other markets.

    So if they indeed enter the TV market, I would expect a tight integration with iCloud for content.  Steve is on record as saying that consumers don’t want to be messing around with storage in their living room.  So they dumped storage on Apple TV in the latest incarnation.  Well PVR’s are storage devices with the typical clumsy user experience.

    So why not integrate the next incarnation of Apple TV right in the TV, and use iCloud as a giant PVR in the sky?  Let the consumer avoid the need to plan what they want to record in advance, pay for multiple PVR’s, and then manage their storage.  Every piece of content is just there for you to watch whenever you feel like it.  Who else but Apple would have the credibility to negotiate a deal that works with content owners?

    The consumer would see a hugely simplified user experience, no need for multiple PVR’s scattered around the house, and a new service that they could only get through Apple.  I guess the question for me in all of this is whether Apple lets you experience all of this with Apple TV + Third Party TV, or whether you need to buy the new Apple HDTV to get it.  I would expect Apple to offer the service on third party products, but would also expect the integrated all-in-one experience provided by Apple to be far superior.

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2011 02:35 PM #72

    mbeauch - 28 August 2011 01:40 PM
    Mercel - 28 August 2011 05:50 AM

    Love it!  Love It!  LOVE IT! smile

    Well, it shouldn’t come as any surprise then that I’m in the love business   :-D


    Your a pimp, I knew it. :-D

    Or a John.  :-D

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2011 02:58 PM #73

    Red Shirted Ensign - 28 August 2011 02:46 PM

    (I am sure some of the folks in the Southeast are watching this tv coverage with a chuckle. CNN is still going with the ‘surviving hurricane Irene’ tag line)


    You are so right Red. When you can watch the guy on TV and actually hear him good it is laughable (OMG it is raining hard and the waves are crashing in, they must be 5 ft high). The news agencies were foaming at the mouth to try and make this a Katrina event so they could draw comparisons as to how things should be handled. Bloomberg evacuating NYC was more irresponsible to me than anything that happened in NO. Rezonate can tell you some stories from Katrina since he was one on the many hero’s in the aftermath. I have some videos and pic of Katrina coming in, truly devastating in the scale. Heck, we played golf in 50+ mph winds in Vegas.

    Red, you should of seen the interview of the 82 year old lady who would not leave her place in NC, she was laughing about other people making a big deal about it. They went back after the storm had passed and she was like, “well I lost a few shingles, that’s easy to fix”. In SC they were jumping off a pier into the surf to ride the bigger than usual waves.

    Bottom line is that all it takes is for the winds to be over 75 mph to be a hurricane, 74 and its a tropical storm. (We have thunderstorms around here that are smaller but pack just as much of a punch) Also, what the weather channel does is show people the GOES satellite image. This image is completely different than the radar image. When I was looking at the radar image and track it made me pretty confident that it would not be to bad. I also know that we have people in the National guard/Coast Guard that will be there if needed.

    Hopefully I will not have to break out my bear suit anytime soon. I had my bear suit on in gold last week, but had to take half of it off. Gotta love sitting in a position that is totally house money. :drool:

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
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    Posted: 28 August 2011 03:49 PM #74

    Mav - 28 August 2011 03:11 AM

    That was funny.

    And no.  You could also say that as an Apple fan, I should at least NOT like…nevermind.

    asymco, it’s fine that your estimates were on the low side this quarter, particularly for iPhone.  But what is with that last article (which has no byline)?  Apple’s P/E has tanked to 15.18 and “average P/E” will grossly distort AAPL’s valuation disrespect.

    The byline is on the click through page, which contains the entire text of Schmidt’s analysis:


    http://www.asymco.com/2011/08/28/apple-and-comparables-pe-ratios-is-punishment-for-growth-being-dispensed-equally/

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