Amazon Tablet Rumor Central

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    Posted: 29 August 2011 11:07 PM #16

    Every now and then I entertain thoughts that some of us should go into the consulting business together.  We can charge $50 for the off-the-cuff posts here, our understanding is so much higher than many who get paid good money to analyze Apple.

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  • Posted: 30 August 2011 03:01 AM #17

    From reader comments:

    “I see Sarah is doubling down on stupid.”

         
  • Posted: 02 September 2011 09:06 PM #18

    adamthompson3232 - 02 September 2011 11:34 PM

    Very few considering an iPad will buy this thing.

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/09/02/new_android_amazon_kindle_to_abandon_eink_and_take_on_ipad_with_customized_android_build.html


    I think current Kindle sales estimates are pegged somewhere around 5-10 million a year. (hard to know with confidence since Amazon doesn’t release sales figures).  I think its fair to say this new tablet could sell something along those lines. 

    Game changer for iPad? Nope

    Game changer for Nook Color? Yep

    Some people are going to run with the $250 price tag. It is important to keep in mind that there is a segment of the population that don’t care about quality and such so they are fine paying half the price of iPad to get a device that is less than half the quality.

         
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    Posted: 02 September 2011 10:24 PM #19

    Hey, it does exist!  According to TechCrunch’s best author, anyway:  http://techcrunch.com/2011/09/02/amazon-kindle-tablet/

    So, we’re looking at a $250 Galaxy Tab-a-like, but Amazon-ized.  A Wi-Fi portal to Amazon with some Amazon-exclusive goodies like free Amazon Prime and video access possibly baked in.

    This is one path I hadn’t thought Amazon would be taking, and it’s possibly viable.  Dipping a toe in the water with a yesteryear-tech, watered-down (camera-free), smaller-screen, slower, lower-BOM tablet, but with a focused Amazon experience that may not look anything like Android.  (Btw, this helps Google howLOL)

    Kind of a loss leader if you ask me, even with an iPad 1-era processor, but you know what?  Add in push discounts and offers that normal, more casual Amazon users like myself can use (unlike *cough* Gold Box?)  Make it so my buying the Amazon tablet will save me at least $100-150 a year based on my existing purchasing patterns, whether I buy through the tablet or punch the coupon codes in my iPad or whatever raspberry?  Yeah, I might buy one.  Might.

    It’s an integrated, non-modern (on the basis of Android OS, assuming MG Siegler is right), custom, niche-ish tablet, which would mostly threaten the 7” and low-end tablet space, but it could help Amazon maybe a little.

    [ Edited: 02 September 2011 10:30 PM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 02 September 2011 10:42 PM #20

    Sammy the Walrus IV - 03 September 2011 12:06 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 02 September 2011 11:34 PM

    Very few considering an iPad will buy this thing.

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/09/02/new_android_amazon_kindle_to_abandon_eink_and_take_on_ipad_with_customized_android_build.html


    I think current Kindle sales estimates are pegged somewhere around 5-10 million a year. (hard to know with confidence since Amazon doesn’t release sales figures).  I think its fair to say this new tablet could sell something along those lines. 

    Game changer for iPad? Nope

    Game changer for Nook Color? Yep

    Some people are going to run with the $250 price tag. It is important to keep in mind that there is a segment of the population that don’t care about quality and such so they are fine paying half the price of iPad to get a device that is less than half the quality.

    I think the kindle sales are optimism until they release actual numbers.  Amazon has purposely not provided numbers, leaving all the folks to guess.  They continue to quote growth in e-book sales, but I would hate to see what the ratio of those sales are for iOS devices vs kindle.  The Kindle has captured the hearts of a percentage of the avid book reader, but being from a daily reading family, I see many who still like to turn a real paper page and won’t buy any e- reader.  I have several best sellers on my iPad which my wife will wait to buy in paper rather then read on an e screen.  The Amazon tablet is a stretch out of the comfort zone IMO, but we can wait for results.  The whole razor vs razor blade argument is a non player in the digital universe, it is too easy to change.  If I buy/steal an MP#/Book?/ what ties me to the hardware?

         
  • Posted: 03 September 2011 12:38 AM #21

    The big news short term is that Amazon has (according to TechCrunch) forked Android, is not working with Google, and Google apps are nowhere to be found.  Android, as a standalone, is fading fast.

    Long term Amazon is a player on the short list, along with Googorolla.  Microsoft and Samsung are likely to be added.

    Apple is the leader and as Cook has asserted, is years ahead.

         
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    Posted: 03 September 2011 03:07 AM #22

    pats - 03 September 2011 01:42 AM
    Sammy the Walrus IV - 03 September 2011 12:06 AM

    I think current Kindle sales estimates are pegged somewhere around 5-10 million a year. (hard to know with confidence since Amazon doesn’t release sales figures).  I think its fair to say this new tablet could sell something along those lines.

    I think the kindle sales are optimism until they release actual numbers.  Amazon has purposely not provided numbers, leaving all the folks to guess.

    Here are a couple of guesses.

    According to James McQuivey of Forrester Research, estimates are ranging around four million, as of mid-2010.

    According to an IDC study from March 2011, sales for all e-book readers worldwide gained to 12.8 millions in 2010; 48% of them were Kindle models.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Kindle

    These are cumulative numbers, not annual unit sales numbers. A total of 4 million 1st & 2nd generation Kindles sold. 3rd gen. was released about a year ago along with price drops to $139-189. That kicked sales up a notch so that cumulative sales hit 6 million by March 2011. That’s ~2.7 million/year rate IF they sustained that initial sales burst.

    I agree this rumored $250 Amazon Color tablet might sell 3-5 million in its first year. End of November release? December 2011 sales of iPad 2 will easily eclipse 5 million. The Great Android Hope will be lucky to reach 10% the unit sales of iPads in 2012. By revenue it will be less than 4%.

    As capablanca has pointed out, this provides nearly no benefit to Google. This Android fork is akin to the two Chinese variants (Ophone & Tapas) that bypass Google services and apps.

    The end result of all this activity is that the illusion of Android dominance is perpetuated while iOS continues to dominate where it matters most: profits.

         
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    Posted: 03 September 2011 04:08 PM #23

    The source is suspect since they compete directly with Samsung. Also, I thought the claimed “shipped” number was 2 million. In any case, it’s pretty clear the previous Great Android Hope didn’t fare very well.

    Samsung Galaxy Tab sold just 20,000 out of 1m shipped, claims rival

    An executive at Android tablet maker Lenovo claims that Samsung sold only 20,000 of the 1m tablets that it shipped last year as it tried to “buy share” from market leader Apple.

    The dramatically low figure suggests that Samsung’s efforts with its first 7-inch tablet, launched exactly a year ago, fell far short of targets.

    Samsung said at the end of 2010 that it had shipped 1m of its 7-inch Galaxy devices, which were seen as the first real Android competitors to Apple’s iPad. However, according to Barrow, Samsung only sold 20,000 of the tablets. Samsung had not returned a request for comment on Barrow’s claim by the time of publication.

    Samsung has never given details of the actual sales it has made in the tablet market. In an earnings call at the end of January, Samsung executives admitted that the company had shipped far more tablets than had actually been sold, saying that the latter figure was “quite smooth” ? a puzzling phrase that was never explained.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/sep/02/samsung-galaxy-tab

         
  • Posted: 03 September 2011 06:28 PM #24

    More “just the Kindle” info

    My favorite bit is in this reader’s comment:

    If the introduction of this

    Android tablet radically lifts Amazon’s share price then I just about give up on Wall Street and fundamental values. If Apple tried something like this, they’d be downgraded and reviled. Yet Wall Street will probably praise Amazon for providing some wonderful service for consumers. I remember when the iPad was first introduced and was soundly panned for lacking what was considered certain basic features that tech-heads expect (no rear camera, no USB port, no Flash support). Almost two years later Amazon is introducing a tablet 7” in size with even less features than the first iPad and Wall Street will be saying how fine a job Amazon is doing by competing against Apple. There are a bunch of crooks running Wall Street. I’m getting tired trying to figure out how Amazon stock is managing to outperform Apple stock day after day, quarter after quarter.

         
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    Posted: 04 September 2011 12:41 AM #25

    Amazon?s Kindle Tablet Is Very Real. I?ve Seen It, Played With?It.


    http://techcrunch.com/2011/09/02/amazon-kindle-tablet/

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  • Posted: 04 September 2011 01:40 AM #26

    If the Amazon tablet truly differentiates itself by going 7 inch and having a much lower price and providing integrated access to the Amazon store and an Amazon App marketplace then I think it has a chance. But two things.

    First, I don’t consider this to be a competitor to the iPad anymore than the Kindle or the Nook are competitors to the iPad. We’re talking about two totally different things here. Many people own BOTH an iPad and a Kindle. They find them useful for two very different purposes. I doubt many people who want to buy the proposed Amazon tablet would have had much interest in buying an iPad anyway.

    Second, lets wait until 1) The product is announced; 2) A price is announced; 3) a release date is announced; and 4) the product is made available to third party reviewers before we start speculating on it’s possible success. I mean honestly, how many times do we have to learn this lesson? When the iPad came out there was the JooJoo and the Courier and the HP Windows tablet and some thing from Adam that never materialized. They were all either vapor or losers. And then there was the Samsung tab (200,000 total sold in 2011?) and the Playbook and the TouchPad and on and on and one. We have no idea of the build quality or the software quality of the degree of ecosystem integration that Amazon is going to bring to this product. To say that speculating on this non-existent piece of vaporware is premature is an understatement, to say the least.

         
  • Posted: 05 September 2011 12:09 PM #27

    It takes (at least) three things to make a successful tablet.

    First, it takes hardware. Does Amazon have the hardware chops to compete with the iPad or the Nook? Maybe the Nook, but never the iPad. Take a look at Amazon’s various version’s of the Kindle. They are not good. Amazon may surprise and debut an excellent hardware product, but there is no evidence to support that view.

    Second, it takes software. Amazon is rumored to be using a fork of Android. No problem there. The problem arises in the future. Does Amazon have the chops to support, maintain and iterate their forked version of Android? It’s a monumental task. Amazon is an amazingly good company, but I think you’re asking a lot when you ask them to support an entirely new OS.

    Third, it takes an ecosystem. Here I think Amazon has the chops. They’ve got the store. They’ve got the content. They’ve go the cloud. The only question is how well they can integrate their ecosystem with their proposed tablets. Let me put it this way. They may find it hard to match or beat Apple in the ecosystem game but they’ll have no problem beating Google’s current efforts. But one can’t take much comfort from beating Google’s ecosystem. They’ve set the bar pretty low.

         
  • Posted: 05 September 2011 12:25 PM #28

    Fourth, it takes international appeal.  Amazon is MUCH bigger in the US than anywhere else in the world, and although a strong demographic, the US only has about 300m of the global 6b population.

    I’ll leave someone else to run the numbers on iPad US sales as a proportion of global, but a successful product in the US does not a global phenomenon make.

    EDIT: For clarity:

    - If the Amazon “portal” and ecosystem is a key selling point, it won’t hold as much weight elsewhere
    - Amazon.com heavy marketing only works when you have tremendous traffic, again not so much outside of US

    [ Edited: 05 September 2011 12:29 PM by LongAAPLsince02 ]      
  • Posted: 05 September 2011 12:35 PM #29

    LongAAPLsince02 - 05 September 2011 03:25 PM

    Fourth, it takes international appeal.  Amazon is MUCH bigger in the US than anywhere else in the world, and although a strong demographic, the US only has about 300m of the global 6b population.

    Great point.

    I didn’t want to make this an essential element for tablet success but perhaps I should have. To successfully sell a tablet, it takes a physical retail channel. The Kindle belies this, but every other tablet asserts its validity. Are most people going to buy an unknown tablet if they can’t see and use it before hand? Perhaps if it is $250 and serves a limited purpose. Never if it’s going to go head to head with the iPad.

         
  • Posted: 05 September 2011 02:23 PM #30

    FalKirk - 05 September 2011 03:09 PM

    It takes (at least) three things to make a successful tablet.

    First, it takes hardware. Does Amazon have the hardware chops to compete with the iPad or the Nook? Maybe the Nook, but never the iPad. Take a look at Amazon’s various version’s of the Kindle. They are not good. Amazon may surprise and debut an excellent hardware product, but there is no evidence to support that view.

    +1   Bezos could be Ballmer’s twin when it comes to taste:  They both have none.  Worse, I don’t think they know it.