Amazon Tablet Rumor Central

  • Posted: 07 September 2011 06:25 AM #31

    Think of it as an Amazon Loyalty Card that won’t fit in your wallet/purse and costs $250. That’s what it is, because it’s not the one you want.

    This using an Amazon store linkage to push a product; it’s a sales tool for Amazon. The internet eventually destroys the effectiveness of push marketing/selling, but it’s taking a decade or two for the majority to understand that’s what’s happening.

         
  • Posted: 07 September 2011 10:23 AM #32

    Is Amazon’s Website Redesign an Apple, iPad Killer?

    Consider only that Apple’s biggest advantage in dominating the global tablet space with the iPad is more than the hardware. It’s the company’s back support, including a massive app store, connectivity to other leading Apple products incuding the iPhone smartphone and Mac computers that give Apple advantage.

    Enter Amazon’s biggest competitive threat to Apple that makes its forthcoming tablet a serious player even before the product is launched. Amazon says the company is testing a major redesign of its Web site, an overhaul, that according to The Wall Street Journal, “could refashion the way people shop on the world’s largest online retailer.”

    The new site is being streamlined for tablet optimization, meaning Amazon will be more user-friendly for Apple iPad users and users of the company’s new Kindle tablet, which Amazon is expected to release within weeks.

    No disrespect to Amazon, but I’m going to wait until I see such a site before I judge it. If anyone can pull this off, it’s Amazon, but experience has shown that non-existant vaporware is almost always superior to the real stuff.

    Consider that Amazon, already positioned as the leading global retail site with the addition of tablet-friendly site positioning with a signature tablet to sell is, well, embarking upon a game-changing global tablet moment.

    Is Amazon global?

    Already, we know that Amazon is likely to sell the new tablet at $250…

    We really don’t know that.

    Already, we know that many first-time tablet buyers want a lower price point—HP’s TouchPad sellout fire sale at $99 being a prime example.

    We know no such thing. If the makers of kitty litter announced that they were going out of business and were having a one-time sale of their product for 20% of the retail price, there would be a riot at the stores. Even non-cat owners would flock to buy the stuff, perhaps justifying their purchase by saying that they could use it to give traction to their cars in icy conditions.

    Listen up. OF COURSE PEOPLE WANT TO BUY STUFF FOR TWENTY PERCENT OF ITS RETAIL PRICE. That proves nothing about the product. It only proves that people like bargains.

    ...just because (the rumored Amazon tablet) a different size doesn’t mean that Amazon’s tablet won’t threaten Apple’s iPad.

    True, but inferior specs, inferior hardware quality, inferior software quality, inferior integration and inferior user friendliness might well mean that Amazon’s tablet won’t threaten Apple’s iPad.

    In the tablet world, we’re about to see that size doesn’t always matter.

    That’s what she said. But I think she was lying. Size does matter, particularly in tablets. I think that Apple ,once again, got it right. A 7 inch tablet is too big to put in your pocket yet too small to interact with. I think it may be perfect as a niche reading device. But if you want to use a tablet and not just a big phone, you need to jump to the 9 plus inch size.

         
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    Posted: 07 September 2011 01:14 PM #33

    Isn’t it interesting that in tablets Android fans consider 7” better than 9.7”, but in phones they think 4.5” is better than 3.5”? Everyone is entitled to their own preferences, but clearly many millions of consumers continue to buy the “tiny” iPhone and the “bulky” iPad.

         
  • Posted: 14 September 2011 03:24 PM #34

    adamthompson3232 - 14 September 2011 05:43 PM

    http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/14/amazon-kindle-tablet-sales-projections-cut-in-half-still-likely-to-be-no-1-android-tablet/

    Amazon?s Kindle tablet is poised to become the best-selling Android tablet to date when following its launch later this fall. In a note to investors, Barclays analyst Anthony DiClemente offered up what is seemingly a more realistic sales projection than prior estimates: 2 million units in 2011.

    How can any reasonable person project the number for the Amazon tablet to be sold this year? It doesn’t exist. It hasn’t even been announced. It hasn’t been demoed. It most certainly hasn’t been reviewed. It has no specs. It has no ship date. It has no price (people only THINK they know they price).

    There is absolutely zero evidence that could be used to support even hypothetical sales numbers.

         
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    Posted: 14 September 2011 03:44 PM #35

    FalKirk - 14 September 2011 06:24 PM

    It hasn’t even been announced. It hasn’t been demoed. It most certainly hasn’t been reviewed. It has no specs. It has no ship date.

    To be fair, all this could be said of the next gen iPhone and many reasonable people are predicting (speculating about) sales numbers.

    Chances are high enough that this Amazon tablet will arrive before the holidays, so speculating about sales is understandable. I just find it amusing that nearly everyone in the Moronic Media? low-balled initial iPhone & iPad sales estimates, yet they go nuts with estimates for all these non-Apple devices.

    I can easily see Amazon ordering an initial build run of 2 million tablets. They’ll send some into their retail channel and sell most directly from their website. They’ll want to make a big splash and load up on the freebies. Amazon Prime (1 yr.?), apps, music, movies, ebooks, magazines, etc. could add up to be worth enough to many people that the rationalized price could drop below $100.

    I don’t think they’ll have much trouble selling a couple of million during the peak shopping season of the year. The question is whether this business model is sustainable. I don’t think so, but only time will tell.

         
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    Posted: 14 September 2011 04:17 PM #36

    I think that Amazon is going to hit a sweet spot with a tablet at this size and price point.

    Amazon has experimented with tablets, in the form of the Kindle, in big and small sizes. I have a large Kindle, which was given to me by one of Amazon’s very first employees, and I consider it too big and heavy. Most people seem to agree that the smaller Kindles are a good compromise of size, weight, and price. I expect that the new tablet will be similarly popular as a good compromise, and I expect it will be a smash hit. It may feel a lot more “plasticy” and cheap than an iPad, but it won’t be considered so jewel-like and people will easily buy a new one if they drop it. 

    Mark my words: the new Amazon tablet will be the first major competitor to the iPad.

         
  • Posted: 14 September 2011 05:29 PM #37

    Drew Bear - 14 September 2011 06:44 PM
    FalKirk - 14 September 2011 06:24 PM

    It hasn’t even been announced. It hasn’t been demoed. It most certainly hasn’t been reviewed. It has no specs. It has no ship date.

    To be fair, all this could be said of the next gen iPhone and many reasonable people are predicting (speculating about) sales numbers.

    Good point. But at least with the iPhone 5, there is some historical data that can be used to make some at least speculative projections.

    We literally don’t even know if the rumored Amazon tablet will come into existence in 2011 more less make any or many sales.

         
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    Posted: 14 September 2011 05:34 PM #38

    firestorm - 14 September 2011 07:17 PM

    Mark my words: the new Amazon tablet will be the first major competitor to the iPad.

    I wouldn’t go that far. They may ship 2-3 million into the channel during a quarter when Apple will probably sell upwards of 20 million iPads. The Amazon tablet will be competing with the Nook & Android tablets, not the iPad.

    Most people seem to agree that the smaller Kindles are a good compromise of size, weight, and price. I expect that the new tablet will be similarly popular as a good compromise, and I expect it will be a smash hit.

    The most popular Kindle costs $114. If the average Kindle user buys an e-book per month at $10 each, Amazon probably makes more profit from content sales than from the device itself.

    The rumored Kindle Color costs $250 and Amazon is going to include the $79/yr. Amazon Prime membership (probably just for one year) along with other content. Kindle e-book fans are not going to buy this color tablet to read e-books, so what content will Amazon sell to subsidize the device? Video & apps are mostly free. Music?

    I suspect most people that will buy this already have Amazon Prime. This only means that Amazon will lose that $79 fee for the year. It also means they won’t generate any additional sales from a person that’s already using Amazon to shop. Their only hope is to drum up new Prime members.

    If you consider the sub-$150 Kindle a “smash hit” despite lack of any sales reports from Amazon, then this more expensive Kindle will probably also be a “smash hit”. Just curious: what kind of “hit” is the iPad?

         
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    Posted: 14 September 2011 06:15 PM #39

    Drew Bear - 14 September 2011 08:34 PM
    firestorm - 14 September 2011 07:17 PM

    Mark my words: the new Amazon tablet will be the first major competitor to the iPad.

    I wouldn’t go that far. They may ship 2-3 million into the channel during a quarter when Apple will probably sell upwards of 20 million iPads. The Amazon tablet will be competing with the Nook & Android tablets, not the iPad.

    Most people seem to agree that the smaller Kindles are a good compromise of size, weight, and price. I expect that the new tablet will be similarly popular as a good compromise, and I expect it will be a smash hit.

    The most popular Kindle costs $114. If the average Kindle user buys an e-book per month at $10 each, Amazon probably makes more profit from content sales than from the device itself.

    The rumored Kindle Color costs $250 and Amazon is going to include the $79/yr. Amazon Prime membership (probably just for one year) along with other content. Kindle e-book fans are not going to buy this color tablet to read e-books, so what content will Amazon sell to subsidize the device? Video & apps are mostly free. Music?

    I suspect most people that will buy this already have Amazon Prime. This only means that Amazon will lose that $79 fee for the year. It also means they won’t generate any additional sales from a person that’s already using Amazon to shop. Their only hope is to drum up new Prime members.

    If you consider the sub-$150 Kindle a “smash hit” despite lack of any sales reports from Amazon, then this more expensive Kindle will probably also be a “smash hit”. Just curious: what kind of “hit” is the iPad?

    Kindle sells a lot of books for Amazon; more than printed books at this point, so I think “smash hit” is accurate (though Apple hit a record-breaker with the iPad, kind of like Norm Cash hitting the ball over the Tiger Stadium roof during my youth).  Amazon will sell lots of movies and TV shows for its new tablet, and they will be very watchable at that size (note all the people watching video on iPod touch).

    We are groping in the dark about this new device, so varied opinions are welcome. I think that it will be a huge seller—especially among people who think the iPad is too large and expensive.  If you think that the Kindle isn’t selling well, check out the Seattle ferries some time. Kindles are FAR more popular among commuters than the iPad, and it has nothing to do with home field advantage, and everything to do with size and weight of the device.  The new tablet will be even more popular.

         
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    Posted: 14 September 2011 07:11 PM #40

    firestorm - 14 September 2011 09:15 PM

    Kindle sells a lot of books for Amazon; more than printed books at this point, so I think “smash hit” is accurate (though Apple hit a record-breaker with the iPad, kind of like Norm Cash hitting the ball over the Tiger Stadium roof during my youth).  Amazon will sell lots of movies and TV shows for its new tablet, and they will be very watchable at that size (note all the people watching video on iPod touch).

    We don’t know how many of those Kindle e-book sales are going to the over 200 million iOS device users. I’ve bought e-books from the Kindle store and I don’t own a Kindle. So I agree that Kindle e-books are a smash hit, but I have no idea how many Kindle devices Amazon has sold or how much profit they’ve made from them…directly or indirectly.

    We are groping in the dark about this new device, so varied opinions are welcome. I think that it will be a huge seller—especially among people who think the iPad is too large and expensive.  If you think that the Kindle isn’t selling well, check out the Seattle ferries some time. Kindles are FAR more popular among commuters than the iPad, and it has nothing to do with home field advantage, and everything to do with size and weight of the device.  The new tablet will be even more popular.

    I agree the current cheaper Kindles are popular, just not on the same scale as the iPad. The Dixie Chicks were popular (so I’ve heard), just not on the same scale as The Beatles.

    It’s a question of grouping things in the same “league”. You can talk about Jones, Hogan, Jack & Tiger in the same discussion, but leave Fuyrk & Toms out of it. The iPad is in a league of its own. Tabs, PlayBook, TouchPad, Nook & Kindle are barely playing in the minor leagues.

         
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    Posted: 14 September 2011 07:23 PM #41

    Now that Steve Jobs has ceded the title of “World’s Greatest CEO,” I nominate Jeff Bezos to get the tiara.  Bezos has rarely skipped a beat. He doesn’t have the same level of design or taste as Jobs, but he does have a finger on the pulse of the future. His new tablets may well end up being the poor man’s version of the iPad, and perhaps become even more popular. Time will tell.

         
  • Posted: 14 September 2011 10:01 PM #42

    firestorm - 14 September 2011 10:23 PM

    Now that Steve Jobs has ceded the title of “World’s Greatest CEO,” I nominate Jeff Bezos to get the tiara.  Bezos has rarely skipped a beat. He doesn’t have the same level of design or taste as Jobs, but he does have a finger on the pulse of the future. His new tablets may well end up being the poor man’s version of the iPad, and perhaps become even more popular. Time will tell.

    I really admire Bezos, but I think he’s making a mistake with this tablet.

    Example: I think Google should not have deployed Android. Instead, they should have remained OS agnostic and tried to get their search product on every platform that they could. Similarly, Amazon’s deal is to sell content. They should have remained OS agnostic and sought to get Amazon’s store on every platform that they could.

         
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    Posted: 14 September 2011 10:13 PM #43

    Books sell well on the kindle, and perhaps even on the iPads.

    However Video doesn’t seem to be something people watch a lot of on mobile devices. Remember netflix saying that Netflix viewing on the appleTV (which has sold only a couple million units perhaps) far outweighed the netflix viewing on mobile iOS devices (which have sold 100s of millions of units).

    My point is that video content sales will not be enough to allow amazon to subsidise a kindle colour tablet. Amazon Android App store sales for the device are more likely to be the revenue generator I think.

    Off topic: Elon Musk (Tesla Motors & SpaceX) for Worlds Best CEO.

    Signature

    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 15 September 2011 12:14 AM #44

    As far as Elon Musk as world’s greatest CEO: it is still way too early in the game to tell.  If he can bring out a mass market car that unexpectedly sells a million copies, he might get my vote. Until then ...

         
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    Posted: 15 September 2011 03:02 PM #45

    iOSWeekly - 15 September 2011 01:13 AM

    My point is that video content sales will not be enough to allow amazon to subsidise a kindle colour tablet. Amazon Android App store sales for the device are more likely to be the revenue generator I think.

    I was listening to an Android/Google-focused podcast and it doesn’t sound like the Amazon Appstore is moving much product. As a result, developers are not updating their apps, which means fewer people buy the apps from there. Nice little cycle. Maybe the new tablet can break that…or not.

    Their tablet is rumored to be running pre-Android 2.2 Froyo. How many developers will want to spend much time working on that fork when scores of millions of devices will be moving towards Android 4 ICS?