The AFB AAPL Price Target Index Advisory (Topic Closed)

  • Posted: 27 August 2011 12:52 AM

    Everyone:

    Submissions for the AFB AAPL Price Target Index - September 2011 Edition are due in no later than 11:59 PM PDT on Saturday, September 3rd. All entries are to be submitted via email to: robert(at)postsateventide.com.

    Please remember for this index real names are to be used. For purposes of discussion members are free to post their work in this topic, but all official submissions are to be made via email to the above address.

    The results and index averages will be posted on Labor Day. The format is identical to the June Index submissions. The dates for the index are:

    November 1, 2011

    February 1, 2012

    May 1, 2012

    August 1, 2012

    Members are free to provide narrative with their estimates including remarks on what might be the catalysts for share price movements, the impact of the change in occupant of the CEO’s chair and any other major factors participants believe will impact the share price performance. Select quotes and/or references to remarks may be included in the narrative accompanying the published numbers.

    Please include both your AFB member name and your real name. There’s a possibility the index will be picked-up by Seeking Alpha and news outlets might also reference the story.

    Let’s get started…

    [ Edited: 28 August 2011 06:01 PM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 12:59 AM #1

    Here’s hoping for another great performance from the AAPL Price Target Index group this quarter!

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 10:54 AM #2

    I was late before and felt like a freeloader so now I’ll go first:

    JohnG          
      Date         Low     High   Target
      Nov 1, 2011   385   465   430
             
      Feb 1, 2012   455   535   515
             
      May 1, 2012   485   565   545
             
      Aug 1, 2012   525   625   595


    Will supply name and some comments (and maybe some tweaks) later.

    EDIT: Minor tweak 08/27 (bump up) to some of #‘s. Also, I was $14 low on the Aug target and I hope my estimate is similarly low for the Nov 1 target.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    [ Edited: 27 August 2011 07:50 PM by johnG ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 05:18 PM #3

    DT - I know, I’m only an interested observer now, but I was wondering - is there an embargo policy as far as posting price targets and/or estimates here before publication dates, so as to not give WS analysts cheat sheets too far in advance?

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 08:18 PM #4

    Broken record: I’d much rather see your eps estimates for the next 4 quarters. That’s something you can sink your teeth into.

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2011 08:45 PM #5

    Mav - 27 August 2011 08:18 PM

    DT - I know, I’m only an interested observer now, but I was wondering - is there an embargo policy as far as posting price targets and/or estimates here before publication dates, so as to not give WS analysts cheat sheets too far in advance?

    That’s the primary motivation.

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2011 08:47 PM #6

    ChasMac77 - 27 August 2011 11:18 PM

    Broken record: I’d much rather see your eps estimates for the next 4 quarters. That’s something you can sink your teeth into.

    Perhaps that will be the next index updated quarterly. It would also give participants an opportunity to update one index per month.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 10:03 PM #7

    Chas:  That’s really, really hard to do with accuracy.  I much prefer one EPS estimate at a time.

    AT:  Let’s not count the chickens (blowout iPhone sales, mostly) until they hatch (still waiting…)

    DT:  So is there a prohibition of detailed numbers being thrown around the forum (johnG’s excepted) until you post the indices at Posts At Eventide?  I can totally support that.  I’d actually prefer you just put that ground rule out here and now.

    [ Edited: 27 August 2011 10:43 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2011 10:33 PM #8

    Mav - 28 August 2011 01:03 AM

    Chas:  That’s really, really hard to do with accuracy.  I much prefer one EPS estimate at a time.

    AT:  Let’s not count the chickens (blowout iPhone sales, mostly) until they hatch (still waiting…)

    DT:  So is there a prohibition of detailed numbers being thrown around the forum (johnG’s excepted) until you post the indices at Posts At Eventide?  I can totally support that.

    Agreed.  I’m really resisting posting EPS #s this early and this high.  One might as well round EPS to $10 if you’re going to semi-wag it, which is what anyone would be doing given the uncertainty of the iPhone 5 launch.  Is the high EPS # based on knowledge about YOY increase of new markets the 3GS and 4 opened into?  Otherwise, I think there’s a risk of setting AAPL up to miss FQ4 2011.

    FQ3 2011 was a blockbuster.  FQ4 2011?  It’s not so easy to hit two grand slams in a row.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 10:40 PM #9

    I’ve been pounding the “caution on Q4 2011 EPS” drum about as hard as the “people, don’t overreact to the SJ resignation” one. 

    I’ve tried to get EPS to $9 for Q4 2011 without iPhone 5, and, to wildly paraphrase Tim Cook’s bit on first-gen LTE chipsets, it requires some compromises I’m not willing to make.

    Dammit, M(e)rcel, I was just getting used to the a.  Maybe I’ll rename myself “Marv” just to mix things up a little.  At least I won’t be called Tom Cruise any more!  wink raspberry LOL

    (EDIT:  Dagnabbit.  “Marv” is taken.)

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2011 10:44 PM #10

    Mav - 28 August 2011 01:40 AM

    I’ve been pounding the “caution on Q4 2011 EPS” drum about as hard as the “people, don’t overreact to the SJ resignation” one. 

    I’ve tried to get EPS to $9 for Q4 2011 without iPhone 5, and, to wildly paraphrase Tim Cook’s bit on first-gen LTE chipsets, it requires some compromises I’m not willing to make.

    Dammit, M(e)rcel, I was just getting used to the a.  Maybe I’ll rename myself “Marv” just to mix things up a little.  At least I won’t be called Tom Cruise any more!  wink raspberry LOL

    (EDIT:  Dagnabbit.  “Marv” is taken.)

    Did you try Marvy?  LOL

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 10:49 PM #11

    One-letter transformation or addition, Maercel.  You should know better than anyone.  wink

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 10:52 PM #12

    *cough*

    Anyway, DT, I’d prefer you turn your embargo policy into a formal “ban” on anything other than “casual talking shop” about estimates and price targets before you post the indices on Posts At Eventide.

    As far as estimates, Mercel and I are in 100% agreement.  Estimating before we have a clearer idea of iPhone 5’s contribution or non-contribution to fiscal Q4 is tricky at best, possibly overinflating expectations at worst.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 10:59 PM #13

    Mercel - 28 August 2011 01:44 AM
    Mav - 28 August 2011 01:40 AM

    I’ve been pounding the “caution on Q4 2011 EPS” drum about as hard as the “people, don’t overreact to the SJ resignation” one. 

    I’ve tried to get EPS to $9 for Q4 2011 without iPhone 5, and, to wildly paraphrase Tim Cook’s bit on first-gen LTE chipsets, it requires some compromises I’m not willing to make.

    Dammit, M(e)rcel, I was just getting used to the a.  Maybe I’ll rename myself “Marv” just to mix things up a little.  At least I won’t be called Tom Cruise any more!  wink raspberry LOL

    (EDIT:  Dagnabbit.  “Marv” is taken.)

    Did you try Marvy?  LOL

    Why not Merv?  LOL

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 27 August 2011 11:10 PM #14

    Red card!  Requires two actions - one transformation and one addition!

    Also, being closer to AT’s age than, say, westech’s, I don’t need the association with Merv Griffin just yet, much as I think Wheel of Fortune is a fun show.

    C’mon, people!  Let’s try and get serious here for a little while!  I’d really like to know if DT would be receptive to a ban on detailed estimates and targets until the indices are published on Posts At Eventide.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 28 August 2011 12:10 AM #15

    Mercel - 28 August 2011 01:33 AM

    FQ3 2011 was a blockbuster.  FQ4 2011?  It’s not so easy to hit two grand slams in a row.


    Apple does not have to hit a grand slam in Q4, it might even be an afterthought. There will never be a quarter like this one where the attention will be on the next. Everyone and their mother knows Apple will come in with great numbers in Q4, the mother of all quarters will be Q1. The extra week should bring .60c to the guidance. Because of this I can see Apple giving guidance over $9 EPS. I would not look for to much of a sell off if Apple gives decent guidance like that.

    Signature

    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.