AAPL Strategy Room, “Slow News Day” or “Waiting for Godot-I mean iPhone 5” Edition

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    Posted: 30 August 2011 11:24 PM

    We survived August (at least I don’t think tomorrow will be some stupid Dow tanks 700 day or whatever), and we didn’t even get the stupid T-shirt.

    But announcements or even the promise of announcement from Apple (aside from, well, the other Apple news) have been at an all-time low at this time of year.  No iOS 5/iCloud GM?  No new iPhone?  What the heck?

    Seems like a good time to re-establish AAPL positions if you have a 6-12 month time horizon, given what’s almost certain to come.  To heck with the dip, if AAPL’s at 470-550 or so in the next few months, it doesn’t really matter.  That elusive Apple media invite shouldn’t be too far away, and it would seem like Apple would seize the moment and kick off Tim Cook’s official accession to CEO with such an invite this week.  Assuming the market doesn’t undergo a huge downturn, AAPL’s prospects seem very bright.

    OTOH, while AAPL itself seems to escaped the worst of the uncertainty surrounding…well…itself, we all know the uncertainty and outright disrespect the stock gets from WS will never truly end.  And market jitters and pure fear can’t be ignored, even if, as I’ve been thinking for a while now, perception doesn’t match reality.  If ever that happens, hang on to your hats, because even Apple’s massive sales momentum would be blunted to some degree.

    You guys pretty much know what I’m up to as far as AAPL trades.  So, whatcha guys got planned?  You have the floor!

    [ Edited: 30 August 2011 11:31 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 30 August 2011 11:49 PM #1

    I have my core common, to remain untouched but for a periodic purchase of a few more shares from:

    1.  The puts I have sold weekly at inferred support points, currently 350. With the strength shown by Apple after the succession news, I think there is a new powerful level of support in the 360 area. When the sept. 2 puts expire, the next sale is 360. This supports:

    2.  Existing bull spreads expiring from October thru April, at strikes ranging from 340 to 430. Next April is the sweet spot in my view, combining the to be incredible Holiday quarter’s results building a trailing P/E that must be respected by wall street with seasonality and a new ipad 3. Boom!  April will be, in my parlance, Warp 9.5.  Which will enhance


    3. The calls at strikes from 270 to 450 that are in play through 2013. I’ll roll some 2012 leaps to 2014 leaps in September or October, at the height of iPhone mania.


    I have no other plans….... LOL

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 31 August 2011 12:06 AM #2

    Mav - 31 August 2011 02:24 AM

    We survived August (at least I don’t think tomorrow will be some stupid Dow tanks 700 day or whatever), and we didn’t even get the stupid T-shirt.

    But announcements or even the promise of announcement from Apple (aside from, well, the other Apple news) have been at an all-time low at this time of year.  No iOS 5/iCloud GM?  No new iPhone?  What the heck?

    You guys pretty much know what I’m up to as far as AAPL trades.  So, whatcha guys got planned?  You have the floor!

    As I pointed out to DT (when he was forecasting a labor day launch of iPhone5) there’s a reason they call them the dog days of August.  wink  By no means do I think Minnesota is anyone’s center of the universe but the way it goes around here is after our 6 months of winter people have a tendency to wind any serious work/considerations way down and head for the lake.  If you want them in a receptive frame of mind you’ll also cross the first week after labor day from your list as it takes a bit of time to let them get over being pissed the summer has come to an end. (it’s okay to send out the invite for the following week however)
    I’ll be standing pat with my buy and hold retirement account but am starting to feel a little stupid about not participating in the obvious coming run to 550 in a more financially rewarding fashion.  Thanks for asking.  smile

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    Posted: 31 August 2011 03:43 AM #3

    I’ll disagree based on past history.  Apple loves to revel in the media hype (and hold back shipments as long as possible to protect secrecy) for iPhone.  It was 17 days between announcement and iPhone 4 launch.

    Obviously, Apple threw the Book of Patterns out the window, but given Apple’s extreme reluctance to move product until an announcement is made, and given the huge initial volume of product to be moved from the Foxconn/etc. factories, don’t count on a release less than two weeks after announcement.

    Anything to add about your AAPL trading strategy, AT?

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 31 August 2011 04:34 AM #4

    So AT - did Steve Jobs resign entirely on his own terms, only to have “deafening” silence for over 3 weeks, leaving the media to keep shouting mindlessly about Life After Jobs?  Or to have a comparatively uninteresting iPod update sideshow within a week or two of the resignation?

    Something doesn’t seem right about that scenario.

    ESPECIALLY this:  iPod touch with an A5 chip…before an iPhone?!? 

    There’s just no way. 

    Yeah, you could say iPod touch doesn’t need an A5.  But when I try and process it all, I have to conclude:  Apple will address iPods and iPhones at the same event - or Apple just unveils the iPhone line and has no Music Event whatsoever.

    [ Edited: 31 August 2011 04:37 AM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 31 August 2011 09:24 AM #5

    adamthompson3232 - 31 August 2011 07:25 AM

    Trading strategy = go all in and hold on tight.

    I’m at about 80% of all in as of Monday, and holding on

         
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    Posted: 31 August 2011 10:47 AM #6

    adamthompson3232 - 31 August 2011 07:25 AM

    Trading strategy = go all in and hold on tight.

    That’s probably a good LONG term plan. That said, it’s a bit painful sitting long aapl when the near term news cycle seems so sketchy. We (longs) need some meat thrown our way soon! I do expect a bit of weakness in aapl as long as the news cycle is dead.

    FWIW, I’m long shares and 2013 LEAPS to the tune of 70% equity:cash loading. I will only up that equity ratio when the next sale event occurs.

    cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 31 August 2011 11:51 AM #7

    I agree with AT

    No event invite until end of month.  No need to halt iPhone 4 sales too soon.

         
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    Posted: 31 August 2011 03:28 PM #8

    Maybe they’re letting the 10 year anniversary of 9/11 pass first.

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    The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 31 August 2011 03:34 PM #9

    omacvi - 31 August 2011 02:51 PM

    I agree with AT

    No event invite until end of month.  No need to halt iPhone 4 sales too soon.

    Define “need.”  I don’t think Apple would like to give the Samsung Galaxy S II a 1-2 month head start in the US if it had the choice.

    At this late stage in the game I’m hoping it’s just iOS 5 and iCloud holding things up.  Things like (1) production ramp issues post-product launch and (2) initial hardware quality problems are basically inexcusable at this point.  Apple yet to prove it’s particularly adept with Point 1. 

    I welcome Apple to prove me wrong with initial iPhone 5 sales of over 3 million.  Oh, and for the record I “inadvertently” bought some AAPL calls on account of today’s dip.  So at this point I’m all-in and hanging on for dear life.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.