FY2011 Q4 AAPL financial and sales estimates

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    Posted: 23 September 2011 09:43 PM

    My not-quite final numbers will end up around $ 31.4 B revenue and 8.50 EPS.

    [ Edited: 24 September 2011 01:15 PM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 23 September 2011 10:08 PM #1

    Tetrachloride - 24 September 2011 12:43 AM

    My not-quite final numbers will end up around $ 31.4 B revenue and 8.50 EPS.

    At the current ttm P/E, that would put the share price at about $465

    I would be okay with that

         
  • Posted: 23 September 2011 10:38 PM #2

    I’m currently at $33.4 billion in revenues and EPS of $9.04. The big unknown for me is iPhone units.

         
  • Posted: 23 September 2011 10:42 PM #3

    For FQ1 2012, I currently have $46.8 billion in revenues and EPS of $13.11, which combined with current quarter estimate would mean CY2011 ttm EPS of $36.34.

    Btw, I think something big is about to happen relative to the iPod line, maybe related to the iPhone Air/Mini concept. I think the announcement is going to include a major iPhone 5 upgrade plus some kind of reworking of the iPod line, including potentially a smaller/less expensive phone. Just speculation.

         
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    Posted: 23 September 2011 10:51 PM #4

    Tetrachloride - 24 September 2011 12:43 AM

    My not-quite final numbers will end up around $ 31.4 B revenue and 8.50 EPS.

    Where’ve ya been, Cl4? 

    I will hesitantly have a data-point-free set of numbers ready to go, with “unofficial” revised numbers if Apple manages to hold its media event before October earnings and give out some data points then (pardon the sarcasm, the “news flow” out of Apple has been “nonexistent” this summer).

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    Posted: 24 September 2011 12:28 AM #5

    Lurking.  Looking more at over all picture of economy.   

    Full numbers tomorrow.

         
  • Posted: 24 September 2011 01:14 AM #6

    Tetrachloride - 24 September 2011 03:28 AM

    Lurking.  Looking more at over all picture of economy.   

    Full numbers tomorrow.

    Please remember to email me your numbers. I won’t be pulling numbers from this topic. The early submissions from the independents would astound more than a few observers.

         
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    Posted: 24 September 2011 01:27 AM #7

    DawnTreader - 24 September 2011 04:14 AM
    Tetrachloride - 24 September 2011 03:28 AM

    Lurking.  Looking more at over all picture of economy.   

    Full numbers tomorrow.

    Please remember to email me your numbers. I won’t be pulling numbers from this topic. The early submissions from the independents would astound more than a few observers.

    DT, you are so cryptic sometimes….

    C’mon, give us a taste…. :wink:

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  • Posted: 24 September 2011 01:51 AM #8

    Tetrachloride - 24 September 2011 03:28 AM

    Lurking.  Looking more at over all picture of economy.   

    Full numbers tomorrow.

    Lurking?  You and Mark both.  Just stay under $6 EPS to lock in the upside surprise.  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 24 September 2011 02:16 AM #9

    Red Shirted Ensign - 24 September 2011 04:27 AM
    DawnTreader - 24 September 2011 04:14 AM
    Tetrachloride - 24 September 2011 03:28 AM

    Lurking.  Looking more at over all picture of economy.   

    Full numbers tomorrow.

    Please remember to email me your numbers. I won’t be pulling numbers from this topic. The early submissions from the independents would astound more than a few observers.

    DT, you are so cryptic sometimes….

    C’mon, give us a taste…. :wink:

    RSE:

    See your PMs.  grin

         
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    Posted: 24 September 2011 02:47 AM #10

    DT, you’re creeping me out here a bit.  And you’re not the only one.

    Why do I feel strangely alone, well except for Mercel, on the “let’s not get ahead of ourselves” side of things?

    This will be a good quarter.  It will be benefitted for obvious reasons I need not repeat here.  It will be “negatively” affected by certain realities brought about by no new iPhone 5 in the quarter. I do NOT see a overall Q4 result with a delta like Q3, and I really do think that $9 EPS I’m hearing here and there is more like an awesome result than an expected one. 

    Don’t get me started on the 24.5-millionish iPhone average PED said he was seeing from those independents’ estimates that he’d already received.

    Please feel free to share your PM earnings preview with me as well as Ensign.

    [ Edited: 24 September 2011 02:52 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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  • Posted: 24 September 2011 03:29 AM #11

    Mav - 24 September 2011 05:47 AM

    This will be a good quarter.  It will be benefitted for obvious reasons I need not repeat here.  It will be “negatively” affected by certain realities brought about by no new iPhone 5 in the quarter. I do NOT see a overall Q4 result with a delta like Q3, and I really do think that $9 EPS I’m hearing here and there is more like an awesome result than an expected one.

    If you say so.  grin

    Now, back to our regularly scheduled AFB programming. The quarter ends Saturday.

         
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    Posted: 24 September 2011 03:48 AM #12

    Pushing iPhone5 out a quarter should be a net earnings positive, Mav. The bill of materials to manufacture iPhone4 should be at an all time low. The demand still matches supply, since Apple can add carriers worldwide as needed to sell every one they make. iPhone5 components should be sufficiently different from iPhone4 that production of 5s does not seriously limit production of 4s. So, it shouldn’t really matter that some people in the US were unable to buy iPhone5 in Q4. iPhone4 is still on a growth path, and may have to continue to be since it will be a while before iPhone5 can ramp to meet worldwide demand. Enter iPhone4S.

         
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    Posted: 24 September 2011 04:41 AM #13

    DawnTreader - 24 September 2011 06:29 AM
    Mav - 24 September 2011 05:47 AM

    This will be a good quarter.  It will be benefitted for obvious reasons I need not repeat here.  It will be “negatively” affected by certain realities brought about by no new iPhone 5 in the quarter. I do NOT see a overall Q4 result with a delta like Q3, and I really do think that $9 EPS I’m hearing here and there is more like an awesome result than an expected one.

    If you say so.  grin

    Now, back to our regularly scheduled AFB programming. The quarter ends Saturday.

    Is that a friendly challenge, my good man? :innocent:

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 September 2011 04:46 AM #14

    Intjester - 24 September 2011 06:48 AM

    Pushing iPhone5 out a quarter should be a net earnings positive, Mav. The bill of materials to manufacture iPhone4 should be at an all time low. The demand still matches supply, since Apple can add carriers worldwide as needed to sell every one they make. iPhone5 components should be sufficiently different from iPhone4 that production of 5s does not seriously limit production of 4s. So, it shouldn’t really matter that some people in the US were unable to buy iPhone5 in Q4. iPhone4 is still on a growth path, and may have to continue to be since it will be a while before iPhone5 can ramp to meet worldwide demand. Enter iPhone4S.

    The YOY growth is the kicker.  Sequential of course counts too, but YOY provides the big picture compare.

    I’m sorry, but when iPhone is the quarter’s meal ticket, YOY is absolutely key.  You cannot dance around the iPhone number.  iPad can only do so much to make up the difference.  Same with tax rate and GM and OpEx.  Don’t forget the dampening effect of deferred revenue due to iCloud (which is pretty ironic when you think about it, there being no iCloud in the quarter).

    Where are the more “bullish” among us w/r/t YOY iPhone unit growth?

    Some context:  For Fiscal Q3, back when there was the awesome but short-lived AFB Estimate Index, I was slightly more bullish than the AFB index (though still way, way off).  I’m not exactly what you’d call a bearish estimator though I do err on the side of conservatism.

    [ Edited: 24 September 2011 04:59 AM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 24 September 2011 12:14 PM #15

    Mav - 24 September 2011 07:41 AM
    DawnTreader - 24 September 2011 06:29 AM
    Mav - 24 September 2011 05:47 AM

    This will be a good quarter.  It will be benefitted for obvious reasons I need not repeat here.  It will be “negatively” affected by certain realities brought about by no new iPhone 5 in the quarter. I do NOT see a overall Q4 result with a delta like Q3, and I really do think that $9 EPS I’m hearing here and there is more like an awesome result than an expected one.

    If you say so.  grin

    Now, back to our regularly scheduled AFB programming. The quarter ends Saturday.

    Is that a friendly challenge, my good man? :innocent:

    No.  grin

    I’ll just leave you to your views. We’ll compare notes after the conference call.