AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 25 September 2011 06:54 PM #16

    rudyo - 25 September 2011 09:49 PM

    And I think much the same way, except I think Oct 11 is an acceptable medium-higher risk, and definitely a higher (quicker) reward alternative than either the Apr 12’s or Jan 13’s! grin

    Actually I have short term, medium and long term. Oct11’s through Jan 13’s. I couldn’t just have long term Jan13’s, even though it is probably the safest. I would feel decoupled from the daily market. Got to have skin in the game!

    It isn’t often we get this meshing or confluence of events. I am actually excited for my Oct 11 spreads! The next 4 weeks until Oct exp. are going to be very exciting!

    Oct 11 is medium-high compared to weeklies, anyway.  Damn those are some friggin’ hot potatoes! LOL  I should know, I have the burns to show for it!

    I’ve bought and sold Oct 11, Nov 11, Dec 11 and Jan 11s already, maybe all of ‘em in this month.

    Seriously investigating a BCS for Oct 11.  _Might_ buy a small Nov 11-Jan 12 position up to earnings.  But nothing crazy.  I don’t feel nearly as strongly about Q4 as Q3 (sentiment, not Apple’s momentum)

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 25 September 2011 06:57 PM #17

    I am probably older and closer to retirement than rudyo and Mav.

    I do not want to feel very connected to the day to day market action smile, and Jan 2013’s at this point get me as close as I want to be.

    Good luck to all

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 07:15 PM #18

    Unique - 25 September 2011 10:11 PM

    Anticipating a financial meltdown in these two weeks.

    Monday is dead cat bounce.

    SPX 1000 target again.

    What about AAPL?

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 07:21 PM #19

    1000?  1000 was last seen August 2009.

    The macro picture is pretty lousy, but it’s not 2008 world is ending lousy.  Credit is flowing and companies are much more on defense.  US banks at least are much better capitalized.

    Everyone knows the situation in the Euro zone.  Fear was much higher in August.  So why didn’t 1000 happen in August?

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 07:22 PM #20

    Nagrani - 25 September 2011 10:15 PM
    Unique - 25 September 2011 10:11 PM

    Anticipating a financial meltdown in these two weeks.

    Monday is dead cat bounce.

    SPX 1000 target again.

    What about AAPL?

    Clearly AAPL 250.  rolleyes 

    Kidding!

    This may be potentially useful:  AAPL vs. S&P comparison chart via Yahoo! Finance

    [ Edited: 25 September 2011 07:30 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 07:30 PM #21

    Euro zone uncertainty is, though, one reason why my current plan is to play the iPhone 5 anticipation and earnings run-up more conservatively.

    [ Edited: 25 September 2011 07:41 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 25 September 2011 07:54 PM #22

    Mav - 25 September 2011 10:21 PM

    1000?  1000 was last seen August 2009.

    The macro picture is pretty lousy, but it’s not 2008 world is ending lousy.  Credit is flowing and companies are much more on defense.  US banks at least are much better capitalized.

    Everyone knows the situation in the Euro zone.  Fear was much higher in August.  So why didn’t 1000 happen in August?

    Oh we’re as close as we have been in a long time.  And if wasn’t for Apple I wouldn’t be long anything right now.

    Things are looking better in Europe.  Tuesday’s vote in Greece is a big hurdle.  But each day that goes on the more that the governments and banks are prepared.

    Yea it’s a terrible time to be long anything.  But if things work out the market and Apple should rocket up.

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 07:57 PM #23

    Mav - 25 September 2011 10:21 PM

    1000?  1000 was last seen August 2009.

    The macro picture is pretty lousy, but it’s not 2008 world is ending lousy.  Credit is flowing and companies are much more on defense.  US banks at least are much better capitalized.

    Everyone knows the situation in the Euro zone.  Fear was much higher in August.  So why didn’t 1000 happen in August?

    Well, corrections/crashes are usually a process because of the whole supply/demand/ value/pain thing…and usually, there’s more than one leg down.  Last summer is probably the most benign comparison.  The dive started at the beginning of May followed by two more legs down, the latter (beginning of July) establishing the bottom.  The journey upward took another two months of consoldiation and retesting.  So…  We’re almost two months into this thing…hopefully a bottom is near, and hopefully it isn’t too far down.

    If SPX loses support at 1100, the next support is around 1060-1010, last summer’s low.

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 08:03 PM #24

    Adding to last post…ON TOP of the Eurozone stuff, there is the theory that quantitative easing artifically inflated stock prices, thus the absence of QE returns stocks to their “fair value.”  And perhaps, since AAPL has been underpriced this entire time, that explains why it’s one of the few stocks getting more buyers than sellers at a time when the market’s tanking.

    [ Edited: 25 September 2011 08:05 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 08:19 PM #25

    kevinhernandez - 25 September 2011 10:54 PM
    Mav - 25 September 2011 10:21 PM

    1000?  1000 was last seen August 2009.

    The macro picture is pretty lousy, but it’s not 2008 world is ending lousy.  Credit is flowing and companies are much more on defense.  US banks at least are much better capitalized.

    Everyone knows the situation in the Euro zone.  Fear was much higher in August.  So why didn’t 1000 happen in August?

    Oh we’re as close as we have been in a long time.  And if wasn’t for Apple I wouldn’t be long anything right now.

    Things are looking better in Europe.  Tuesday’s vote in Greece is a big hurdle.  But each day that goes on the more that the governments and banks are prepared.

    Yea it’s a terrible time to be long anything.  But if things work out the market and Apple should rocket up.

    So, fear?

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 08:21 PM #26

    Thanks for that chart, rudyo.  Ooh, shiny.

    I think I’m beginning to understand.  The advantage of the BCS is that I have a little extra margin of error for my calls to break even…at expiration anyway.  I’ll do better with a BCS and hold to expiration if AAPL only gets to 430.

    OTOH, there comes a point (I guess in the 440 range) where the call becomes the better move, again if I choose to hold to expiration. 

    That’s where having analytics for different points in time comes in to help me make a more informed decision.

    When the stock is more “deliberate” in its movements, theta works to my advantage.  Am I on the right track here?

    [ Edited: 25 September 2011 08:27 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 25 September 2011 08:29 PM #27

    Mav - 25 September 2011 11:19 PM
    kevinhernandez - 25 September 2011 10:54 PM
    Mav - 25 September 2011 10:21 PM

    1000?  1000 was last seen August 2009.

    The macro picture is pretty lousy, but it’s not 2008 world is ending lousy.  Credit is flowing and companies are much more on defense.  US banks at least are much better capitalized.

    Everyone knows the situation in the Euro zone.  Fear was much higher in August.  So why didn’t 1000 happen in August?

    Oh we’re as close as we have been in a long time.  And if wasn’t for Apple I wouldn’t be long anything right now.

    Things are looking better in Europe.  Tuesday’s vote in Greece is a big hurdle.  But each day that goes on the more that the governments and banks are prepared.

    Yea it’s a terrible time to be long anything.  But if things work out the market and Apple should rocket up.

    So, fear?

    Yea.

    But the risk/return right now with Apple is worth it for me.  IBM is doing really well-but the return isn’t their compared to the risk.  If it wasn’t for Apple I wouldn’t be long anything right now.

    I always question my longs if I’ve done real with in a stock (and I have with Apple)-“would I buy this now?”  And right now if it wasn’t for Apple I’d probably say no to most long holding of stocks/options.  There’s been plenty of times I’ve thought about selling at 3:45 lately.  But I haven’t yet.

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 08:37 PM #28

    On that we agree.

    AAPL is the highest quality stock to be seen for miles.  It’s the go-to pick for bullish investments.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 08:42 PM #29

    madmaxroi - 25 September 2011 08:14 PM

    The winner of the earnings smackdown should win this iPad 2 cover…

    Sponge, you interested?

    Funny

    I will have to run some numbers.

    I have been too busy the last few days to chime in.

    Glad to see we survived above 400 while the DOW is at the low of the year.

         
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    Posted: 25 September 2011 09:01 PM #30

    lovemyipad - 25 September 2011 10:57 PM
    Mav - 25 September 2011 10:21 PM

    1000?  1000 was last seen August 2009.

    The macro picture is pretty lousy, but it’s not 2008 world is ending lousy.  Credit is flowing and companies are much more on defense.  US banks at least are much better capitalized.

    Everyone knows the situation in the Euro zone.  Fear was much higher in August.  So why didn’t 1000 happen in August?

    Well, corrections/crashes are usually a process because of the whole supply/demand/ value/pain thing…and usually, there’s more than one leg down.  Last summer is probably the most benign comparison.  The dive started at the beginning of May followed by two more legs down, the latter (beginning of July) establishing the bottom.  The journey upward took another two months of consoldiation and retesting.  So…  We’re almost two months into this thing…hopefully a bottom is near, and hopefully it isn’t too far down.

    If SPX loses support at 1100, the next support is around 1060-1010, last summer’s low.

    IPad, so how does one determine a correction? I’d really like to hear thoughts on this.