Supply chain cuts for the Ipad. Here we go again…

  • Posted: 26 September 2011 08:23 AM

    Supply chain cut info:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-26/apple-cuts-ipad-supply-chain-orders-jpmorgan.html

    Here we go with the runup manipulation

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2011 08:43 AM #1

    bolivar - 26 September 2011 11:23 AM

    Supply chain cut info:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-26/apple-cuts-ipad-supply-chain-orders-jpmorgan.html

    Here we go with the runup manipulation

    They ordered a lot for Christmas and now they are reducing a bit for a possible decrease after Christmas.
    I seem to remember a similar report last year, around this time, for the iPhone.
    It meant nothing.

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2011 08:50 AM #2

    It is mainly JP Morgan managing a short position in anticipation of 4Q result.
    If successful I will try to buy at a bottom around $385

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 08:53 AM #3

    Same article, different year.

    We all know how that worked out.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 09:51 AM #4

    So last month we have

    For the third quarter, Foxconn is expected to ship 20 million units of iPad 2 to Apple, a growth of 60% sequentially, and the orders should be the major growth driver for the company in the second half. However, Foxconn has declined to comment on a specific client.

    So 25% takes us back to 15M units.  We didn’t believe the 20M but once they establish some inventory for the holiday season, they would naturally adjust production to lower post holiday demands and then we have iPad 3.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 09:54 AM #5

    pats - 26 September 2011 12:51 PM

    So last month we have

    For the third quarter, Foxconn is expected to ship 20 million units of iPad 2 to Apple, a growth of 60% sequentially, and the orders should be the major growth driver for the company in the second half. However, Foxconn has declined to comment on a specific client.

    So 25% takes us back to 15M units.  We didn’t believe the 20M but once they establish some inventory for the holiday season, they would naturally adjust production to lower post holiday demands and then we have iPad 3.

    Exactly! You would need just one more horse to make a bigger pile of horseshit.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 11:01 AM #6

    FUD bullshit. Blatant manipulation attempt.

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  • Posted: 26 September 2011 11:38 AM #7

    It could be related to weaker than expected launch of iPad2 3G in China.

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2011 11:42 AM #8

    Production shift to Brazil?

    Here?s what this game of telephone might be missing: it?s entirely possible that this decrease in production at Hon Hai?s Chinese plants is very real, but the speculation surrounding the move could be way off base. Aolizio Mercadante, the Brazilian Minister of Science and Technology, confirmed to the press earlier this month that Foxconn?s Jundia?, Brazil factory is ready to begin production.

    While the manufacturer?s Brazilian factory is not expected to begin shipping iPad tablets until late in the fourth quarter according to earlier reports, no timeline has been confirmed by Apple or Foxconn, and this could certainly be behind JP Morgan?s reported 25% production cut if the firm?s anonymous sources aren?t high enough on the food chain.

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2011 12:10 PM #9

    Possibilities:

    1. completely false
    2. iPad demand is below forecast
    3. production is to be replaced by something else - Brazil production
    4. production is to replaced by something else - iPad 3

    It’s obvious that if you want more capacity next year, you have to build it, train staff etc, and to do that at the last possible moments risky. So you’re going to start using the new facility before you need it to iron out the problems. Therefore you’re going to cut back production elsewhere temporarily.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 12:16 PM #10

    adamthompson3232 - 26 September 2011 02:26 PM

    Refuted.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/09/26/apple-ipad-debated-jpmorgan-sees-cuts-susquehanna-refutes/?mod=yahoobarrons

    This analyst clarifies that this is supply chain management, not any indication of actual sales. We’ll know more when Apple reports iPad channel inventory next month. To me it just sounds like they are making sure there will be no shortage of iPads for the holiday season. Nor will there be a glut of iPads in January when the next iPad could be starting production soon.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 01:51 PM #11

    adamthompson3232 - 26 September 2011 03:45 PM

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/09/26/did-j-p-morgans-foxconn-analyst-forget-about-brazil/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    PED, Apple Defender.

    Did his…title change somewhere along the way?  raspberry

    Little sarcasm there.  Always respected his journalism, but I distinctly remember him being more skeptical of Apple.  Nowadays, Apple’s “cred” is hard to ignore, and it makes it that much easier to call out the FUDsters and didn’t-do-their-homework types.

    AT - I suspect even you like GM today a grudging fraction when he says something like this (from PED’s article): 

    “Apple purposely maintains enough suppliers and manufacturing partners to make any one supply-side data point inconclusive,” wrote Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, who mentioned the fact that Apple is transitioning to Brazilian manufacturing.

    It’s more “adding” than “transitioning”, but that’s mostly right.

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  • Posted: 26 September 2011 02:08 PM #12

    With iPad3 coming along in Jan-Feb, it makes sense to start a production slow down after the xmas season (for which units have already been manufactured).

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2011 02:44 PM #13

    Sounds to me that Brazil is coming on line.

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  • Posted: 26 September 2011 03:03 PM #14

    adamthompson3232 - 26 September 2011 01:53 PM

    Per a recent analyst note that I cited elsewhere on this board iPad 2 is available in 32 countries currently. This is a very small number when compared to iPhone or (even more so) to RIMM’s blackberry which is available in 100+ countries. If intra-country demand is waning for iPad (I do think it is) Apple can just add countries to its distribution channel.

    China’s middle and upper class now totals almost as many as there are people (total) in the US.

    Apple is a high demand brand in China, maybe higher than any other country on the planet.  Chinese consumers routinely pay premiums above MSRP to get iPhones and iPads.

    All Apple has to do to increase sales is open more Apple Stores in China.  Presently there are 5 in China, all of which lead worldwide Apple Store sales.

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    Posted: 26 September 2011 04:00 PM #15

    westech - 26 September 2011 05:44 PM

    Sounds to me that Brazil is coming on line.

    The media outlet that broke the story reportedly got a quote from a Brazilian government official, actual name and everything.  This sounds a lot more like…y’know…actual news.  smile 

    Foxconn and Apple make quite a team.

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