Apple earnings announced - Oct 18th.

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    Posted: 26 September 2011 05:56 PM #1

    October options officially expire after earnings.  January was the last time that happened but the “leave of absence” threw a wrench in that earnings week.  The October options just got more interesting.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 06:04 PM #2

    No whisper number yet, have to wait for PED #s grin

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2011 08:02 PM #3

    AAPLTrader99 - 26 September 2011 08:56 PM

    The October options just got more interesting.

    Do you think this wasn’t priced in? I believe it was. Product releases aren’t predictable. But earnings releases typically are. That won’t affect pricing, at least not on its own as a news event. Seems that only one recent earnings release announcement—January I think—was scheduled earlier than expected and actually did give a quick boost to options.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 08:26 PM #4

    Exact date I was assuming. Nice to have it before monthly OE.

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    Posted: 26 September 2011 08:27 PM #5

    dolemite - 26 September 2011 11:02 PM
    AAPLTrader99 - 26 September 2011 08:56 PM

    The October options just got more interesting.

    Do you think this wasn’t priced in? I believe it was. Product releases aren’t predictable. But earnings releases typically are. That won’t affect pricing, at least not on its own as a news event. Seems that only one recent earnings release announcement—January I think—was scheduled earlier than expected and actually did give a quick boost to options.

    It is probably mostly priced in.  However, there may be more that want to buy the October options now knowing they expire after earnings.  It will also make for a more interesting earnings week as there is usually substantially more open interest in the monthly options.  Fun to watch the battle between max pain and the post-earnings reaction.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 10:04 PM #6

    dolemite - 26 September 2011 11:02 PM
    AAPLTrader99 - 26 September 2011 08:56 PM

    The October options just got more interesting.

    Do you think this wasn’t priced in? I believe it was. Product releases aren’t predictable. But earnings releases typically are. That won’t affect pricing, at least not on its own as a news event. Seems that only one recent earnings release announcement—January I think—was scheduled earlier than expected and actually did give a quick boost to options.

    I honestly thought it was priced in a few weeks back before the VIX even got jacked up.  But..  I’m relatively new to a lot of different variables of trading, so I wasn’t exactly sure.

    There was far too much premium in those contracts than there should of been in my opinion.  Although I dont think I mentioned it on here or to anyone.

    Which of you guys noticed that?  I couldn’t of been the only one..

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 10:10 PM #7

    It’s time to print cash like the FED everyone..  I just hope we get a run up this week..  to the teens at least. 

    If all of that volume in the weeklies was not close out today, and Open Interest has exponentially increased as a result of today’s buying fury..  then I’ll hold those weekly spreads.  If people bought and closed out..  then I’m just going to roll out to OCT spreads, sit back and enjoy the ride..

    The S&P is in good/decent form for us too..  relatively speaking.

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2011 10:11 PM #8

    blaze biscuits - 27 September 2011 01:04 AM
    dolemite - 26 September 2011 11:02 PM
    AAPLTrader99 - 26 September 2011 08:56 PM

    The October options just got more interesting.

    Do you think this wasn’t priced in? I believe it was. Product releases aren’t predictable. But earnings releases typically are. That won’t affect pricing, at least not on its own as a news event. Seems that only one recent earnings release announcement—January I think—was scheduled earlier than expected and actually did give a quick boost to options.

    I honestly thought it was priced in a few weeks back before the VIX even got jacked up.  But..  I’m relatively new to a lot of different variables of trading, so I wasn’t exactly sure.

    There was far too much premium in those contracts than there should of been in my opinion.  Although I dont think I mentioned it on here or to anyone.

    Which of you guys noticed that?  I couldn’t of been the only one..

    Phones aren’t priced in.  They are a bit-but no one is really sure of some particulars- China?  4G?  What is the 4s?  These could give us a nice 5-7%?  Then huge lines.  Huge PR.  Then earnings.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 10:13 PM #9

    kevinhernandez - 27 September 2011 01:11 AM

    Phones aren’t priced in.  They are a bit-but no one is really sure of some particulars- China?  4G?  What is the 4s?  These could give us a nice 5-7%?  Then huge lines.  Huge PR.  Then earnings.

    I meant earnings were priced in.  Earnings were priced in IMHO a good 2-3 weeks ago.

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2011 10:17 PM #10

    AAPLTrader99 - 26 September 2011 11:27 PM

    It is probably mostly priced in.  However, there may be more that want to buy the October options now knowing they expire after earnings.  It will also make for a more interesting earnings week as there is usually substantially more open interest in the monthly options.  Fun to watch the battle between max pain and the post-earnings reaction.

    I’m not so sure it is, at least not for the Weeklies.  The average run up from the Thursday before earnings (intraday low) to the Thursday following earnings (intraday high) AAPL has averaged an 8.12% gain (Oct earnings week) since 2005.

    If the preceding Thursday’s low is $415 (very reasonable), then the following Thursday’s intraday high may be $450.  That’s a $35 jump in 8 trading days.

    This last Sept 9 through Sept 20 (8 trading days) we saw AAPL go up $37 on no news at all.

    I think this OCT earnings week is going to be special.

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  • Posted: 26 September 2011 10:27 PM #11

    blaze biscuits - 27 September 2011 01:13 AM
    kevinhernandez - 27 September 2011 01:11 AM

    Phones aren’t priced in.  They are a bit-but no one is really sure of some particulars- China?  4G?  What is the 4s?  These could give us a nice 5-7%?  Then huge lines.  Huge PR.  Then earnings.

    I meant earnings were priced in.  Earnings were priced in IMHO a good 2-3 weeks ago.

    Depends on what earnings.  What people expect-or what some us think might happen.  I’m hoping 5% is conservative.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2011 10:53 PM #12

    kevinhernandez - 27 September 2011 01:27 AM
    blaze biscuits - 27 September 2011 01:13 AM
    kevinhernandez - 27 September 2011 01:11 AM

    Phones aren’t priced in.  They are a bit-but no one is really sure of some particulars- China?  4G?  What is the 4s?  These could give us a nice 5-7%?  Then huge lines.  Huge PR.  Then earnings.

    I meant earnings were priced in.  Earnings were priced in IMHO a good 2-3 weeks ago.

    Depends on what earnings.  What people expect-or what some us think might happen.  I’m hoping 5% is conservative.

    I mean that earnings were priced into the IV of the options.  The option premium as of a few weeks ago had showed MUCH more volatilty/extrinsic value than was normal for front month contracts.  I figured that earnings were priced into them, as that would make sense due to their pricing, but I wasn’t exactly sure.

    they were too expensive for normal front months..  and the VIX was not at 40 something then.  It was much lower..  30-ish