AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 05 October 2011 08:19 AM #16

    I (re: my heart) could have done without the huge sell-off then rally yesterday, but the presentation was just what I wanted to hear.  No change in form!  4gs not 5g is what the share price needed.

    The manufacturing lines can just continue to pump out these little buggers with new insides by the millions.  No new touch screen form to gear up, no new processor to gear up (the A5 has been around for nearly a year now) and nothing to slow down production at all.  As a result we can start sales in our biggest markets in a week and a few weeks later all over the world.  We can add Sprint in the US and KDDI in Japan the first week-end and not even blink!  We can add, what, 22 new markets in a month and still no blink.

    We’re going to have a crazy good earnings report in two weeks, but in 3 1/2 months no one will believe the numbers!  Better yet, when the opening week-end plus pre-sold numbers destroy all previous records, Apple’s low ball guidance may look shockingly optimistic. 

    If instead of 1.7 million in the first week-end (the previous record, I believe) Apple sells 3 million they can not ignore the number when setting their guidance.  They can be conservative, but IMHO they cannot be out and out deceitful!

    I expect late adaptors will quickly start choosing a free 3GS or a $99 4G instead of an Android and when the market realizes this it could be pretty exciting.

    Good luck longs.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 05 October 2011 09:35 AM #17

    Samsung patent infringement claim against new iPhone in Europe dragging AAPL down in pre market?

    Signature

    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 05 October 2011 09:37 AM #18

    Ugh, punishment continues PM even while futures green.

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2011 09:46 AM #19

    I get the advantage of keeping the iPhone 4 form factor to maximize gross margin but that’s unsurprisingly lost on the customer who wanted a new design.  I would have preferred a new iPhone case that maximizes buzz, in addition to all the interior hardware and new software presented yesterday.  There’s nothing wrong with the current design except for the fact it’s not “new.”

    The market is rendering an early judgement on this:  Down $5 in a forest of green futures.

    Friday will shore up some of this concern, as preorder lines and wait times on the phone will likely impress. Earnings on Oct 18th has become more important now for those of us holding short term options.

    [ Edited: 05 October 2011 09:52 AM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 05 October 2011 09:51 AM #20

    jjjz - 05 October 2011 12:35 PM

    Samsung patent infringement claim against new iPhone in Europe dragging AAPL down in pre market?

    This was expected when Samsung was earlier denied a sneak peek at iPhone “5” with its lawsuit against Apple.  I’m not sure this is hitting AAPL in the premarket.  But who knows…

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 05 October 2011 09:54 AM #21

    Unique - 05 October 2011 12:45 PM

    Don’t take pre market so seriously. 

    If you’re a long time investor, relax and buy more at this discounted price.

    Not worried, but disappointed that I’m out of bullets and some of the ones I shot were way premature, though I got off a few late rounds yesterday. Curious, where do you see AAPL close on Oct. 18.

    Signature

    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2011 09:56 AM #22

    Mercel - 05 October 2011 12:46 PM

    I get the advantage of keeping the iPhone 4 form factor to maximize gross margin but that’s unsurprisingly lost on the customer who wanted a new design. 
    [..]

    Who says that there really are “customers” who want a new design? This “need” for a new design was only created by the rumor mill which at some point started talking about it. And it’s the need of the geeks who read those web pages, a microscopic minority of the customers.

    Statistically, I expect that nobody who buys iPhones really knows or cares about this. They will just see the iPhone they wanted, and will see that it is faster and can do more. The iPhone4 design is nice and recognizable, and there is no proof that people don’t like its appearance.

    The fact is that they did the same they do with MacBooks. They kept the same winning design externally while putting everything people would have wanted for the new iPhone internally. I don’t think there are any serious statistics or polls saying that people don’t like the iPhone4 design of that they would not buy the new phone, with the new features and speed, just because it doesn’t look like something different.

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2011 09:58 AM #23

    jjjz - 05 October 2011 12:54 PM

    Not worried, but disappointed that I’m out of bullets and some of the ones I shot were way premature, though I got off a few late rounds yesterday. Curious, where do you see AAPL close on Oct. 18.

    Same here, fired off my last few rounds when it was down 3% yesterday during the presentation.  I still don’t believe it will drop again today, but I have no more ammo if it does.  I feel pretty good about it recovering nicely before earnings though and all my options are beyond earnings.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 05 October 2011 10:05 AM #24

    Mercel - 05 October 2011 12:46 PM

    I get the advantage of keeping the iPhone 4 form factor to maximize gross margin but that’s unsurprisingly lost on the customer who wanted a new design.  I would have preferred a new iPhone case that maximizes buzz, in addition to all the interior hardware and new software presented yesterday.  There’s nothing wrong with the current design except for the fact it’s not “new.”

    The market is rendering an early judgement on this:  Down $5 in a forest of green futures.

    Friday will shore up some of this concern, as preorder lines and wait times on the phone will likely impress. Earnings on Oct 18th has become more important now for those of us holding short term options.

    I find comfort in remembering iPad was deemed a sure failure, Dvorak said Apple would surely fail in the phone business and Consumer Reports did not recommend iPhone 4. You would think that the perennial wrong would start giving Apple he benefit of the doubt at some point. Apple has streamlined their product to work on more carriers for a lower unit cost = PROFITS for them and longs. I too hope this is realized by Oct options expiry.

    Signature

    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2011 10:07 AM #25

    lulli - 05 October 2011 12:56 PM

    The fact is that they did the same they do with MacBooks. They kept the same winning design externally while putting everything people would have wanted for the new iPhone internally. I don’t think there are any serious statistics or polls saying that people don’t like the iPhone4 design of that they would not buy the new phone, with the new features and speed, just because it doesn’t look like something different.

    Agreed, they kept the same iPod Classic design for a long time also.  And you’re right about the Macbooks.  These Apple product designs are easily recognizable and noticable out in the wild providing good marketing advantages (think TV and movies).  I was always envious of the iPhone4 design and now I get to have one and get the latest version too. (Im upgrading from 3GS).

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 05 October 2011 10:08 AM #26

    Mercel - 05 October 2011 12:51 PM
    jjjz - 05 October 2011 12:35 PM

    Samsung patent infringement claim against new iPhone in Europe dragging AAPL down in pre market?

    This was expected when Samsung was earlier denied a sneak peek at iPhone “5” with its lawsuit against Apple.  I’m not sure this is hitting AAPL in the premarket.  But who knows…

    Yeah, who knows. Front page on WSJ MARKETWATCH doesn’t help the longs.  I did read at some point that the type of patent infringement they are seeking is normally rejected in Europe.

    Signature

    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 05 October 2011 10:08 AM #27

    jjjz - 05 October 2011 12:35 PM

    Samsung patent infringement claim against new iPhone in Europe dragging AAPL down in pre market?

    As an interesting side note the two countries where Samsung filed their lawsuit Italy & France are not on the list of initial countries for the 14th.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 05 October 2011 10:11 AM #28

    Mercel - 05 October 2011 06:21 AM

    The market will be move on 3 things tomorrow:  Europe, Europe and Europe. 

    On CNN:  Tim Geithner is doing his best to shore up public perception that Europe will keep the Euro intact (interview with, cough, Mr. BlackBerry herself, Erin Burnett).

    She asked TIm if he had an iPhone 4S yet….I don’t think she was kidding.  Then she made a reference to the “cult of mac…” 

    Red Shirt Ensign—What’s your fee for jettisoning her off to a Klingon transport ship?

    I would do it gratis….I’m not even sure the Ferengi would take her. Their rules of acquisition have some “minimal value’ provisions.

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2011 10:12 AM #29

    lulli - 05 October 2011 12:56 PM
    Mercel - 05 October 2011 12:46 PM

    I get the advantage of keeping the iPhone 4 form factor to maximize gross margin but that’s unsurprisingly lost on the customer who wanted a new design. 
    [..]

    Who says that there really are “customers” who want a new design? This “need” for a new design was only created by the rumor mill which at some point started talking about it. And it’s the need of the geeks who read those web pages, a microscopic minority of the customers.

     

    Have you been watching the news media coverage?  The buzz is not what we got the last time in June 2010.  And for some, there is a fashion element among customers wanting something that also looks new.  Apple is a company known for cutting edge design—a 16 month iPhone is getting to look a bit familiar. 

    The iPhone 4s will sell just fine, regardless.

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2011 10:18 AM #30

    Red Shirted Ensign - 05 October 2011 01:11 PM
    Mercel - 05 October 2011 06:21 AM

    The market will be move on 3 things tomorrow:  Europe, Europe and Europe. 

    On CNN:  Tim Geithner is doing his best to shore up public perception that Europe will keep the Euro intact (interview with, cough, Mr. BlackBerry herself, Erin Burnett).

    She asked TIm if he had an iPhone 4S yet….I don’t think she was kidding.  Then she made a reference to the “cult of mac…” 

    Red Shirt Ensign—What’s your fee for jettisoning her off to a Klingon transport ship?

    I would do it gratis….I’m not even sure the Ferengi would take her. Their rules of acquisition have some “minimal value’ provisions.

    LOL

    Erin was obviously confused last night—she thought she was breaking a story with the lackluster traffic inside Apple stores last night, not realizing the iPhone 4s wasn’t yet in stock.