AAPL Intraday Updates - Earnings Day Edition (Archive)

  • Posted: 17 October 2011 06:35 PM

    Fasten your seat belts, folks. Tuesday’s AAPL trading may be one wild ride.

    Let’s get started…

    [ Edited: 18 October 2011 05:11 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 06:39 PM #1

    O.K….just for the record, the last 1/4 of the 373 buy of two weeks ago was sold this morning at 424.  I said I wanted to sell this trading piece before earnings and did it. The four traunches went at 394, 408, 418 and 424.

    Now, I can sit back and enjoy tomorrow.

    DT, I hope your detailed and thoughtful estimate comes to pass, or something very near it. I’m a little worried that some bloggers I highly respect are in the low to mid 8 buck range…..

    I came in finally at $8.88, lucky numbers indeed but, I hope, way too conservative.  :wink:

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    Posted: 17 October 2011 06:43 PM #2

    A wild ride indeed.

    Luckily, we have sheer earnings power by Apple to keep things from getting _too_ crazy (to the extent P/E still means anything, and I think it does as far as a low trading range is concerned).

    At a hopefully pretty low-end EPS result of $8.60 or better, we get a ttm EPS of $29.28 and a P/E of 14.3 based on today’s prices.  Applying the lowest P/E yet this year (about 14) gets us about to a price of about $410 based on those numbers.

    Of course, getting an EPS result of about $9.60 or so helps - then the valuation baseline (assuming 14 low) yields about $424.

    AAPL could always limbo lower into the 13 range, but I don’t really see that happening with iPhone 4S off to a frankly pretty expected start.

    One day to go…

    [ Edited: 17 October 2011 06:49 PM by Mav ]

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    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 06:46 PM #3

    http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2011/10/17/steve-jobs?s-family-gave-moving-words-at-sunday-memorial/

    Steve Jobs?s Family Gave Moving Words at Sunday Memorial

    By Jessica E. Vascellaro

    Steve Jobs?s widow Laurene Powell Jobs, sister Mona Simpson and three of his children spoke at the memorial service held for the Apple co-founder on Sunday, according to two people who attended.

    Oracle CEO Larry Ellison and Apple?s senior vice president for industrial design Jonathan Ive also spoke, these people said.

    The top secret event at Stanford University drew hundreds, including senior executives from across the technology industry. Many politicians, including the Clinton family and House Democratic Leader and California member of Congress Nancy Pelosi, also attended, according to one of the attendees.

    Both people who attended described the service as incredibly moving and a fitting tribute to Mr. Jobs, who was known as a tech visionary, demanding boss and a fanatic for design. One person mentioned that many speakers cracked jokes about Mr. Jobs, who died on Oct. 5 after a long battle with pancreatic cancer.

    U2?s Bono, cellist Yo Yo Ma and singer Joan Baez also performed during the more than an hour-long service, with Bono reading lyrics from an iPad, according to one of these people.

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 06:53 PM #4

    Some quick math is showing a $45B+ fiscal Q1 to be a fairly reasonable estimate, depending on iPad 2 sales trends.  Add an extra week, and $50B isn’t entirely impossible.  An EPS approaching $15 for the holiday quarter (optimistic scenario) boggles the mind…

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 07:00 PM #5

    Even though the whisper number is around 8.8 (or was it 8.4), what EPS do you guys think is minimum to prevent a substantial sell off?  AAPL has blown away all estimates for so many quarters that it makes me nervous to think they come in at the low 8s.  Just give us that $10, make DT look brilliant, and we will all be happy!

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 07:05 PM #6

    Mav - 17 October 2011 09:43 PM

    A wild ride indeed.

    Luckily, we have sheer earnings power by Apple to keep things from getting _too_ crazy (to the extent P/E still means anything, and I think it does as far as a low trading range is concerned).

    At a hopefully pretty low-end EPS result of $8.60 or better, we get a ttm EPS of $29.28 and a P/E of 14.3 based on today’s prices.  Applying the lowest P/E yet this year (about 14) gets us about to a price of about $410 based on those numbers.

    Of course, getting an EPS result of about $9.60 or so helps - then the valuation baseline (assuming 14 low) yields about $424.

    AAPL could always limbo lower into the 13 range, but I don’t really see that happening with iPhone 4S off to a frankly pretty expected start.

    One day to go…

    For want of a more suitable place, I posted this:

    Excepting the collapse of 2008, during the period fiscal 2006 through 2009, average quarterly ISM compression ranged from 2.43% to 4.19%  During the last 3 quarters of calendar 2006, ISM actually expanded.

    In fiscal 2010 average compression zoomed to 9.28%.  Most of that occurred after OCT 2010 earnings report.

    For the first three quarters of fiscal 2011, compression has averaged 13.29%, even in light of stellar earnings.

    I think ISM compression, in the week post OCT earnings 2011, will not exceed 7.8%.

    here: http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/81688/

    It wouldn’t hurt me any to have that thread consolidated into this one.

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    Posted: 17 October 2011 07:06 PM #7

    The website whisperer says $8.42.

    PED made his own “whisper number” derived from the current estimates of the most accurate independent AAPL analysts, which is where the $8.80s number comes from.

    I was in the $8.80s range myself, IIRC, until Mac growth estimates and Tim Cook’s “hidden” expression of confidence in iPhone at the iPhone 4S media event.  I still think a $8.80 number (about 90% YOY earnings growth) will be just fine.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 07:07 PM #8

    qualitywte - 17 October 2011 10:00 PM

    Even though the whisper number is around 8.8 (or was it 8.4), what EPS do you guys think is minimum to prevent a substantial sell off?  AAPL has blown away all estimates for so many quarters that it makes me nervous to think they come in at the low 8s.  Just give us that $10, make DT look brilliant, and we will all be happy!

    Earning whisper number is $8.42

    http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=aapl

    My opinion is that $9 is a minimum to avoid the usual sell off. I am hopeful….

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 07:09 PM #9

    qualitywte - 17 October 2011 10:00 PM

    Even though the whisper number is around 8.8 (or was it 8.4), what EPS do you guys think is minimum to prevent a substantial sell off?  AAPL has blown away all estimates for so many quarters that it makes me nervous to think they come in at the low 8s.  Just give us that $10, make DT look brilliant, and we will all be happy!

    $9.00 to $9.40 Happy but not overly excited

    $9.40+ and AAPL just became a Saturn V rocket

    Below $9.00 and I don’t want to think about it.

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  • Posted: 17 October 2011 07:12 PM #10

    One more trading day to go, and I’m about to hyperventilate.

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    Posted: 17 October 2011 07:12 PM #11

    Hamourabi - 17 October 2011 10:07 PM
    qualitywte - 17 October 2011 10:00 PM

    Even though the whisper number is around 8.8 (or was it 8.4), what EPS do you guys think is minimum to prevent a substantial sell off?  AAPL has blown away all estimates for so many quarters that it makes me nervous to think they come in at the low 8s.  Just give us that $10, make DT look brilliant, and we will all be happy!

    Earning whisper number is $8.42

    http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=aapl

    My opinion is that $9 is a minimum to avoid the usual sell off. I am hopeful….

    Why $9?  My revised numbers are $9.47, but I’m just trying to understand how $8.90 could be considered a bad thing particularly given the “delayed” iPhone 4.

    I don’t think we need to worry much though.  iPad 2 holds a lot of potential to surprise and help make up for any iPhone shortfall.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 07:14 PM #12

    It was a nice morning, wasn’t it? smile

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 07:17 PM #13

    Yes, but not a particularly nice close.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 07:18 PM #14

    Mav - 17 October 2011 10:17 PM

    Yes, but not a particularly nice close.

    Could have been a lot worse.  There’s a gap at 408.  AAPL held up well.

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 07:22 PM #15

    Gregg Thurman - 17 October 2011 10:09 PM
    qualitywte - 17 October 2011 10:00 PM

    Even though the whisper number is around 8.8 (or was it 8.4), what EPS do you guys think is minimum to prevent a substantial sell off?  AAPL has blown away all estimates for so many quarters that it makes me nervous to think they come in at the low 8s.  Just give us that $10, make DT look brilliant, and we will all be happy!

    $9.00 to $9.40 Happy but not overly excited

    $9.40+ and AAPL just became a Saturn V rocket

    Below $9.00 and I don’t want to think about it.

    My bad, I know what you asked, but I answered the wrong question for what you wanted to know.

    Earnings are important.  They tell you how Apple performed against its stated guidance.  But the future is where its at, and to keep AAPL from selling off management must guide in the upper $8.00 area.  I’m forecasting December quarter guidance of $8.81, which implies actual earnings of $13.21.

    Earnings of $13.21 puts TTM at $36.44 which implies a value on AAPL at $580 (ISM at 16).  A 30% ROI in 90 days is what will keep buyers of AAPL in place.

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