AAPL Intraday Updates - Earnings Day Edition (Archive)

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    Posted: 18 October 2011 01:16 PM #136

    omacvi - 18 October 2011 03:47 PM
    Red Shirted Ensign - 18 October 2011 03:42 PM

    O.K., I have a request for all my AFB friends. Today I have to be in a mandatory meeting from 1:00 pacific to about 3:00 Pacific time. I am gonna be peeking at the iphone as often as discretion allows…..which won’t be a huge amount but I can be subtle.

    Keep those usual exceptional earnings day posts and analysis coming in hot and heavy!

    Merci’

    I have a request.  We all tell Red that the numbers were awful and margins tanked.  There is more bad news that we can’t talk about. 

    He will wonder what the hell just happened.  :-D   IF the stock moves up 30 points.

    WE are now green.  Lets hope we stay that way and close above 423 so we can get the gloomy talk out of here.

    Sponge, I am feeling ill.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 01:17 PM #137

    thealct - 18 October 2011 04:00 PM

    Violent AAPL price drops usually signify dumping which did not happen today. We had a controlled price down which indicates options related move. It also trapped Shorts. And now with the price moving up, there will be a squeeze soon. AAPL will close around 428-429, and with earnings a +/-5% move. A +5% is 450, and -5% is 410.

    I typically do not attempt to predict pricing action, but since today is earnings day, I am going to make an exception.  I think the stock is in a holding pattern awaiting earnings.  So I expect a close of between 418 and 422.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 01:18 PM #138

    fas550 - 18 October 2011 03:41 PM
    blaze biscuits - 18 October 2011 03:30 PM
    fas550 - 18 October 2011 03:24 PM

    ......  The AAPL vix is down 4% as of now.  It has been up recently.  The NASDAQ vix is up but only just although it was way up yesterday.

    I am amazed that the VXAPL is RARELY ever mentioned on this site…  I have it right under AAPL on my watchlist..  its a combo pair.

    I use the volatility indexes as it is more consistent as a leading indicator of what the market is going to do than anything else I have found.  I use it to buy in and out of ultra short index ETFs to lessen the blow of the recent large downward swings.  I never make as much money going down as I do when things go up (a reluctant bear you might say) but it buffers loss.  Just my .02

    It’s important.  if people look at the VIX relative to the SPY then they should be looking at the VXAPL relative to AAPL.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 01:20 PM #139

    awcabot - 18 October 2011 03:29 PM
    Gregg Thurman - 18 October 2011 03:24 PM

    After earnings is a different matter.  I hold OCT $440/$445 Call Spreads because of my belief that AAPL, post earnings, will exceed $445 handily.

    From a fundamental standpoint, I agree with you, AAPL should be at a minimum of $440, but given yesterday and today, I am starting to believe the disconnect will continue. Why do you believe $445 will be easily exceeded?

    I used to take averages of prior like periods to gauge AAPL’s future movements.  That never worked.  The reason was that AAPL does not move according to some arbitrary ‘average’.

    That meant that something else was driving it. I tried TA for the past several months and found that to be very lacking.  So I went back to fundamentals and my concept of ISM vs PE.

    Investor Sentiment drives an equity.  So how to gauge that sentiment?

    I decided that the intraday high of the prior quarter represented the high Sentiment for that quarter, and that sentiment was based on Apple’s performance to prior guidance, and expectations that Apple will perform well against current guidance.

    It then occurred to me that, of two types of investor (institutional and retail), only the institutions held enough stock in AAPL to move it with casual buying/selling, and only the institutions had the resources (on staff economists, research reports, supplier contacts, etc). necessary to make more accurate value forecasts than I.

    I then compared that quarterly intraday high to the daily trading action of the following quarter.  A startling picture leaped out, that clearly displayed the change in investor sentiment beginning exactly with earnings.

    A regression analysis back to FQ1/2005 found NO EXCEPTIONS to the sentiment shown, and what AAPL was doing.

    Knowing what macro events had transpired during each quarter, and knowing Apple’s results vs guidance, I found strong correlations to the changes in sentiment.  The biggest was not a macro issues, but Apple’s performance to guidance.  Contrary to popular thought, AAPL trades on fundamentals, not macro issues (in the quarterly term anyway).

    So I examined prior earnings periods looking for reaction to earnings reports that exceeded my expectations (what I believe the institutions expected as well).  I over laid AAPL’s past performance to current trading.  This caused me to predict flat trading for Monday and Tuesday.  That same over lay indicates that AAPL will be trading at $465 on Thursday.  I felt a $20 margin of error was sufficient to invest accordingly.

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    Posted: 18 October 2011 01:23 PM #140

    Mav - 18 October 2011 04:14 PM
    awcabot - 18 October 2011 02:21 PM
    Hamourabi - 18 October 2011 01:47 PM

    Pushing AAPL down…. are big boys expecting a post earning surge?

    Disgusting action in AAPL today… I am getting out. Fundamentals mean little, AAPL should be trading at P/E of 20, or $600.

    Getting out so soon?  If you’re looking past earnings and see upside (granted, not easy to do), I think you should be setting up for the future.

    I got over AAPL not being a 20 P/E stock months ago.  It doesn’t matter.  Even now in these crazy markets AAPL trades somewhat predictably, unlike say a financial stock.

    Given “stable” macro and FEAR levels a dip below 400 is not out of the question this quarter.  But not much below.  And not for long.  That P/E has proven to be a line in the sand despite how low it gets.

    mav..  don’t tell them all of that until they buy the rest of my bottled water, canned food and sand bags.  I STILL got all of that to sell..  my inventory is down but only by 50%

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 01:23 PM #141

    Mav - 18 October 2011 04:14 PM
    awcabot - 18 October 2011 02:21 PM

    Disgusting action in AAPL today… I am getting out. Fundamentals mean little, AAPL should be trading at P/E of 20, or $600.

    Getting out so soon?  If you’re looking past earnings and see upside (granted, not easy to do), I think you should be setting up for the future.

    I got over AAPL not being a 20 P/E stock months ago.  It doesn’t matter.  Even now in these crazy markets AAPL trades somewhat predictably, unlike say a financial stock.

    Given “stable” macro and FEAR levels a dip below 400 is not out of the question this quarter.  But not much below.  And not for long.  That P/E has proven to be a line in the sand despite how low it gets.

    Well, I got out of some Oct $400s, still holding onto some Oct $390s and Nov $410s, so no, I am not really out, just the most risky part of my speculative short term investments. But also the portion of my investments that would make me wealthy.

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    Tightwad.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 01:32 PM #142

    thealct - 18 October 2011 04:00 PM

    Violent AAPL price drops usually signify dumping which did not happen today. We had a controlled price down which indicates options related move. It also trapped Shorts. And now with the price moving up, there will be a squeeze soon. AAPL will close around 428-429, and with earnings a +/-5% move. A +5% is 450, and -5% is 410.

    The model I’m looking at has AAPL going up 6.18% tomorrow from today’s intraday high, and another 3.45% on top of tomorrow’s high for Thursday.

    We shall see.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 01:35 PM #143

    Greg,

    Here’s to hoping you are right grin

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 01:36 PM #144

    blaze biscuits - 18 October 2011 04:23 PM

    mav..  don’t tell them all of that until they buy the rest of my bottled water, canned food and sand bags.  I STILL got all of that to sell..  my inventory is down but only by 50%

    LOL I live in the inland Pacific northwest.  Every 5 to 10 years we get a snow storm that takes out our electricity for a day or three (some rural areas lose it for up to 6 weeks).

    I have learned to stock non-perishables, and kerosene, for those events.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 01:45 PM #145

    Market Chatter

    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

    PRICE/VOLUME COMBINATION:

    Volume is telling us little about the current state of the market. NASDAQ volume has been at or below 2 billion shares for the last six trading sessions. Prior to this weak volume trend, the NASDAQ had traded at or ABOVE 2 billion shares for 13 consecutive sessions. So it’s difficult to read too much into the recent rally as few are buying into it technically. That doesn’t mean the rally can’t continue, it’s just difficult to avoid being cautious.

    The NASDAQ has set up quite interestingly in the near-term. If you look at a 60 minute chart, you’ll see a potential near-term head & shoulders top with the neckline established at the October 13th low and this morning’s low - both around 2585-2590. A potential right shoulder could form anywhere in the 2630-2640 area. Of course, a head & shoulder really isn’t a pattern to act on until the neckline breaks with force (volume). So for now, I’d just keep in mind that the pattern exists.

    MACD DIVERGENCES:

    Price action has been fairly predictable short-term as the bearish divergences on the 60 minute charts suggested a 50 hour SMA test. We’ve since seen those 50 hour tests to “reset” the 60 minute MACD back to its centerline. Therefore, the slowing momentum has now been accounted for and the reset takes the market to the next question. Is this simply a short-term pullback to reset that MACD or could the selling be much deeper? It’s hard to answer that question, but the daily MACDs are suggesting that we’ll bounce off 20 day EMA tests should we fall that far.

    MOMENTUM OSCILLATORS:

    The stochastics and RSI are as follows on our major indices:

    Dow Jones: 88-55 S&P 500: 92-56 NASDAQ: 92-58 Russell 2000: 88-54

    Volatility continues to make it very rough on traders, but the RSI and stochastics tell us that the bears are still in control of the action overall. A break on the RSI above 60 across the board would begin to change that thinking, however.

    SENTIMENT:

    The VIX approached 35 this morning, just two days after seeing a major breakdown beneath 29.50. Would the REAL direction in the VIX please stand up? This insane volatility really adds a layer of risk to trading that I simply don’t like. I know the thought process is to use these swings to make HUGE amounts of profits, but I want to remind everyone that this “potential” profit doesn’t come without an inordinate amount of risk. Apparently, the high volatility CRUSHED Citigroup (C) traders in the latest quarter, so if you’re struggling in this current environment, don’t feel alone. At Invested Central, we simply try to avoid overtrading and keep trading sizes smaller than usual.

    The equity only put call ratio (EOPCR) is at .68 as of 11:30am EST. Relative COMPLACENCY is at 9.71%. Complacency is still “in the air”. But we’re still not at a level that would suggest a reversal is imminent.

    HISTORY:

    The Bowley Trend is our historical indicator that alerts us to specific periods throughout the year when three of our key indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000) tend to trend in one direction or the other.

    The major indices will be NEUTRAL all week, but will turn VERY BEARISH at Friday’s close as next week is the worst performing week of the year historically. More on that later this week.

    SECTORS:

    It’s great to see financials leading the action today. Bank of America (BAC) reported and while their numbers weren’t great, traders are excited. Industrials are also outperforming, while the defensive sectors - utilities, healthcare and consumer staples - are the primary laggards.

    The 10 year treasury yield has fallen back to 2.12%. If you recall, it was the recent breakout above 2.11% that helped to fuel the equities rally. Therefore, it makes sense that we’d like to see the yield hold this 2.11% support. In addition, the 20 day EMA and 50 day SMA are at 2.06% and 2.07%, respectively. That combines for a LOT of support in the 2.06%-2.11% range. The bulls do not want to see the yield lose this support level because it would be an indication of a rush back into treasuries. More defensive posturing does not make for a bullish backdrop for equities, so keep an eye focused on treasuries.

    Transportation issues are rallying again today, and are less than 1% from that key resistance level of 4700. CSX is set to report its Q3 results after the bell today. That could go a LONG way in determining which way transports are heading. A break above 4700 adds to the bullish case of the market, while another failure there would be bearish.

    Continued on next post

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 01:46 PM #146

    Market Chatter Continued

    ECONOMIC AND EARNINGS REPORTS:

    September PPI shot higher, rising 0.8% vs. 0.2% estimates, but the core PPI was only slightly higher, with an increase of 0.2%, just above consensus estimates of 0.1%.

    In earnings news, BAC posted better-than-expected results, as did Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). IBM was beaten down this morning based mostly on top line results. Bottom line, IBM beat expectations and raised guidance. Thus far, traders are not impressed. Goldman Sachs (GS) has been downtrending for some time and this morning we found out why. GS posted only its 2nd quarterly loss in 12 years, steeper than expected. Much of that bad news appears to be priced in, however, as GS was actually ahead slightly today - at least at last check.

    INDIVIDUAL STOCK TRADES:

    The last two days really summarizes how difficult trading can be in this current environment. It appeared the bulls were being whipsawed after their Friday afternoon breakout and Monday failure. Then, this morning, the action was clearly bearish and suddenly buyers emerged and our major indices shot higher. It’s really difficult to trust anything we see from day-to-day. Therefore, we’ll continue to play it very cautiously for now and avoid any additional trades.

    SUMMARY:

    It’s a little interesting to see the NASDAQ 100 lag on a relative basis the day of Apple’s (AAPL) quarterly report. Normally, this is a stock that gets the market very excited. 420 seems to be an area of resistance. It’ll be very interesting to see where traders close this one before perhaps the biggest earnings report of Q3 is released after the bell. While I would certainly expect a very nice report tonight, especially since the 70 point run up off the early October lows, that line of thinking was proven incorrect for IBM, which had seen a similar run up in price.

    Grab some popcorn and fasten your seatbelts!

    Happy trading!

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 01:49 PM #147

    After looking more into IBM I can see where WS has concerns.

    aapl is now acting like a coiled spring. :-D

    Here is hoping to $440 in 3.5 hours.  Cheers to all.  Need to head to work.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 01:49 PM #148

    blaze biscuits - 18 October 2011 03:30 PM
    fas550 - 18 October 2011 03:24 PM

    ......  The AAPL vix is down 4% as of now.  It has been up recently.  The NASDAQ vix is up but only just although it was way up yesterday.

    I am amazed that the VXAPL is RARELY ever mentioned on this site…  I have it right under AAPL on my watchlist..  its a combo pair.

    I didn’t even know about it until now, so thanks for mentioning it. By the way, where’s the new avatar?

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 01:51 PM #149

    omacvi - 18 October 2011 03:48 PM

    In a mere four hours we will all be opening beer or Champagne :-o

    I have a six-pack of Rolling Rock tall boys standing by, regardless of what comes across the wire.  Close enough to champagne for me.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 02:15 PM #150

    StillLong - 18 October 2011 04:51 PM
    omacvi - 18 October 2011 03:48 PM

    In a mere four hours we will all be opening beer or Champagne :-o

    I have a six-pack of Rolling Rock tall boys standing by, regardless of what comes across the wire.  Close enough to champagne for me.

    The way stock is behaving AAPL needs a couple Red Bulls now !!! :-D