AAPL Intraday Updates - Earnings Day Edition (Archive)

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    Posted: 17 October 2011 07:30 PM #16

    lovemyipad - 17 October 2011 10:14 PM

    It was a nice morning, wasn’t it? smile

    lol.  yeah.  I was suspect of the chart when I woke up and looked at it (around 11 i think) but there was NO way I was going to bet against it.  It did look at little toppy/climax-y.. 

    I could of made THREE times my money on those 420’s I sold last friday instead of about 75%.  I thought they doubled, but I threw them out on the open at the market and got pumped with no grease!  lol

    But then again it could be worse….

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 07:39 PM #17

    Wow is that Colin Gillis…interesting.

    While I think he may have a point about AAPL dipping below 400 (is that really such a bold call with the Euro/US/macro paint shaking machine environment we’re in), he’s just off base in too many ways to count.

    Speaking of counting, that bit about Apple’s iPhone 4S numbers being due to Australia and Canada (combined population:  55.4 million/700 million total address population) and Verizon + Sprint (150 million subscribers) does not begin to explain the 135% jump in 3-day sales from the iPhone 4 to the 4S.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 08:02 PM #18

    Ok I shot my last bullet… A 60-share discharge in AH for 417.50… Hoping to sell these for 425-430 in post-earnings AH.

    Bottom line, it all comes down to numbers. Apple has them.

    Champagne at the Friday happy hour. It’s Showtime,

    Signature

    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 08:13 PM #19

    Nice! I am holding on with the same hope of >430 AH tomorrow

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 08:49 PM #20

    Unique - 17 October 2011 11:23 PM

    409 tomorrow morning please.

    I wouldn’t mind that too much, if I could load up on some calls and then see it go to 429 or better on Wednesday morning.

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:05 PM #21

    Apple’s Historical Earnings Beats & Closing Day After Share Price Gain/Loss

    Q3 2010 - 12.92%, +2.35
    Q4 2010 - 13.25%, -8.51
    Q1 2011 - 19.21%, -1.81
    Q2 2011 - 19.59%, +8.29
    Q3 2011 - 33.38%, +10.05

    I’m sure there’s a story behind each of these numbers, but note how a 19% beat in one quarter resulted in a loss of $2 per share and a 19% beat in the next quarter resulted in an $8 gain. Between Q3 and Q4 Apple had run up more than 60 points, so the lower beat resulted in a modest sell off. A 20% beat, by the way, would be $8.68. A 15% beat would be $8.33.

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:18 PM #22

    Prazan - 18 October 2011 12:05 AM

    Apple’s Historical Earnings Beats & Closing Day After Share Price Gain/Loss

    Q3 2010 - 12.92%, +2.35
    Q4 2010 - 13.25%, -8.51
    Q1 2011 - 19.21%, -1.81
    Q2 2011 - 19.59%, +8.29
    Q3 2011 - 33.38%, +10.05

    I’m sure there’s a story behind each of these numbers, but note how a 19% beat in one quarter resulted in a loss of $2 per share and a 19% beat in the next quarter resulted in an $8 gain. Between Q3 and Q4 Apple had run up more than 60 points, so the lower beat resulted in a modest sell off. A 20% beat, by the way, would be $8.68. A 15% beat would be $8.33.

    So something in the 9’s would be 25-35% beat.

    Your comment about Q3—>Q4 being up more than 60 points and having a modest sell-off got me thinking about this quarter, since we have had a similar run-up (albeit in only 5 days); until, that is, I saw this past July quarter, where we had about a 65 point run-up and still bounced higher.

    [ Edited: 17 October 2011 09:26 PM by rutgersguy92 ]      
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:18 PM #23

    Eurozone-related on and off again optimism and squashing thereof is getting on my nerves.  We’re hopeful…yay, rally… Oh, wait, scratch that…not so much to cheer about actually.  Or…Yes, yes, we just met and chatted about you know, same old, same old, accomplished little, but hey, it’s progress, so never mind that doom and gloom, we’re really very confident we can work things out.  Er, did I say that?  Well, it’s not quite that simple.  Ergo: Whoops, no, false alarm, back to the original world-is-ending premise.  No, hang on…this just in, the end of the world has been postponed indefinitely…

    [ Edited: 17 October 2011 09:24 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:24 PM #24

    adamthompson3232 - 18 October 2011 12:12 AM
    Prazan - 18 October 2011 12:05 AM

    Apple’s Historical Earnings Beats & Closing Day After Share Price Gain/Loss

    Q3 2010 - 12.92%, +2.35
    Q4 2010 - 13.25%, -8.51
    Q1 2011 - 19.21%, -1.81
    Q2 2011 - 19.59%, +8.29
    Q3 2011 - 33.38%, +10.05

    I’m sure there’s a story behind each of these numbers, but note how a 19% beat in one quarter resulted in a loss of $2 per share and a 19% beat in the next quarter resulted in an $8 gain. Between Q3 and Q4 Apple had run up more than 60 points, so the lower beat resulted in a modest sell off. A 20% beat, by the way, would be $8.68. A 15% beat would be $8.33.

    Beat of consensus EPS estimate?

    WS analyst consensus. Share price change taken directly from the charts. Beat % taken from http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/earnings/earnings.asp?ticker=aapl

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 09:33 PM #25

    Prazan - 18 October 2011 12:05 AM

    Apple’s Historical Earnings Beats & Closing Day After Share Price Gain/Loss

    Q3 2010 - 12.92%, +2.35
    Q4 2010 - 13.25%, -8.51
    Q1 2011 - 19.21%, -1.81
    Q2 2011 - 19.59%, +8.29
    Q3 2011 - 33.38%, +10.05

    I’m sure there’s a story behind each of these numbers, but note how a 19% beat in one quarter resulted in a loss of $2 per share and a 19% beat in the next quarter resulted in an $8 gain. Between Q3 and Q4 Apple had run up more than 60 points, so the lower beat resulted in a modest sell off. A 20% beat, by the way, would be $8.68. A 15% beat would be $8.33.

    Good info, thanks for posting.  I’m guessing those holding Oct or Nov calls are the most concerned about holding through earnings?

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:35 PM #26

    Ah, Red October.  Takes me back.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:42 PM #27

    lovemyipad - 18 October 2011 12:18 AM

    Eurozone-related on and off again optimism and squashing thereof is getting on my nerves.  We’re hopeful…yay, rally… Oh, wait, scratch that…not so much to cheer about actually.  Or…Yes, yes, we just met and chatted about you know, same old, same old, accomplished little, but hey, it’s progress, so never mind that doom and gloom, we’re really very confident we can work things out.  Er, did I say that?  Well, it’s not quite that simple.  Ergo: Whoops, no, false alarm, back to the original world-is-ending premise.  No, hang on…this just in, the end of the world has been postponed indefinitely…


    We just need for the Europeans to hold this together for another day or so, so we can cash out and get out of Dodge, before it starts to unravel. 

    I thought we would have until Saturday when the G20 get together and realize that there is no plan, but somebody leaked something today.

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 09:44 PM #28

    rutgersguy92 - 18 October 2011 12:18 AM
    Prazan - 18 October 2011 12:05 AM

    Apple’s Historical Earnings Beats & Closing Day After Share Price Gain/Loss

    Q3 2010 - 12.92%, +2.35
    Q4 2010 - 13.25%, -8.51
    Q1 2011 - 19.21%, -1.81
    Q2 2011 - 19.59%, +8.29
    Q3 2011 - 33.38%, +10.05

    I’m sure there’s a story behind each of these numbers, but note how a 19% beat in one quarter resulted in a loss of $2 per share and a 19% beat in the next quarter resulted in an $8 gain. Between Q3 and Q4 Apple had run up more than 60 points, so the lower beat resulted in a modest sell off. A 20% beat, by the way, would be $8.68. A 15% beat would be $8.33.

    So something in the 9’s would be 25-35% beat.

    Your comment about Q3—>Q4 being up more than 60 points and having a modest sell-off got me thinking about this quarter, since we have had a similar run-up (albeit in only 5 days); until, that is, I saw this past July quarter, where we had about a 65 point run-up and still bounced higher.

    There is a difference, though I don’t know how much it matters:  We had that run in mid-Septermber where aapl got well over 400 before plunging back down to 356 or whatever it was.  Makes it harder to compare Jun-July to Sept-Oct. 

    Personally I view somewhere over 400 is where we should have been ever since mid-Sept - if it weren’t for all the macro / Euro stuff.  If you look at it that way the last ten days isn’t as dramatic a climb.  The fall was fast, so was the recovery.  Almost like an extended flash crash.

    Somehow 430-435 feels right to me for Wednesday intraday, if aapl hits eps over 9.25.  That’s a gut feeling, not a crunched number.

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:46 PM #29

    rutgersguy92 - 18 October 2011 12:18 AM
    Prazan - 18 October 2011 12:05 AM

    Apple’s Historical Earnings Beats & Closing Day After Share Price Gain/Loss

    Q3 2010 - 12.92%, +2.35
    Q4 2010 - 13.25%, -8.51
    Q1 2011 - 19.21%, -1.81
    Q2 2011 - 19.59%, +8.29
    Q3 2011 - 33.38%, +10.05

    I’m sure there’s a story behind each of these numbers, but note how a 19% beat in one quarter resulted in a loss of $2 per share and a 19% beat in the next quarter resulted in an $8 gain. Between Q3 and Q4 Apple had run up more than 60 points, so the lower beat resulted in a modest sell off. A 20% beat, by the way, would be $8.68. A 15% beat would be $8.33.

    So something in the 9’s would be 25-35% beat.

    Your comment about Q3—>Q4 being up more than 60 points and having a modest sell-off got me thinking about this quarter, since we have had a similar run-up (albeit in only 5 days); until, that is, I saw this past July quarter, where we had about a 65 point run-up and still bounced higher.

    Yes, but we had a 33% beat. If we beat by 33% again, I don’t expect the share price to decline in the first day after earnings. But crazier things have happened…

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:51 PM #30

    StillLong - 18 October 2011 12:44 AM
    rutgersguy92 - 18 October 2011 12:18 AM
    Prazan - 18 October 2011 12:05 AM

    Apple’s Historical Earnings Beats & Closing Day After Share Price Gain/Loss

    Q3 2010 - 12.92%, +2.35
    Q4 2010 - 13.25%, -8.51
    Q1 2011 - 19.21%, -1.81
    Q2 2011 - 19.59%, +8.29
    Q3 2011 - 33.38%, +10.05

    I’m sure there’s a story behind each of these numbers, but note how a 19% beat in one quarter resulted in a loss of $2 per share and a 19% beat in the next quarter resulted in an $8 gain. Between Q3 and Q4 Apple had run up more than 60 points, so the lower beat resulted in a modest sell off. A 20% beat, by the way, would be $8.68. A 15% beat would be $8.33.

    So something in the 9’s would be 25-35% beat.

    Your comment about Q3—>Q4 being up more than 60 points and having a modest sell-off got me thinking about this quarter, since we have had a similar run-up (albeit in only 5 days); until, that is, I saw this past July quarter, where we had about a 65 point run-up and still bounced higher.

    Somehow 430-435 feels right to me for Wednesday intraday, if aapl hits eps over 9.25.  That’s a gut feeling, not a crunched number.

    I’ll sign for 430-435 right now.  I’m a guy who appreciates a good gut feeling.