AAPL Intraday Updates - Earnings Day Edition (Archive)

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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:56 PM #31

    Unique - 17 October 2011 11:23 PM

    409 tomorrow morning please.

    why?

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    “Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.”  ?Norman Vincent Peale

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 09:57 PM #32

    Unique - 17 October 2011 11:23 PM

    409 tomorrow morning please.

    Denied! 

    On second thought, only if we take a ride on the elevator to 430 at the open, and then drop to 409 to re-load.

    But good luck tomorrow, Ricky.

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 10:28 PM #33

    No iPhone 4S available in Oregon tomorrow

    http://reserve.apple.com/WebObjects/ProductReservation.woa/wo/14.0.1.0.1.3.0.7.1.10.9

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 10:30 PM #34

    High demand?  You betcha!

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 17 October 2011 10:32 PM #35

    rutgersguy92 - 18 October 2011 12:42 AM


    We just need for the Europeans to hold this together for another day or so, so we can cash out and get out of Dodge, before it starts to unravel. 

     

    My plan exactly !

         
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    Posted: 17 October 2011 10:32 PM #36

    For those who don’t plan to sell day after earnings, another opportunity to sell might be presented four to five days after, when share prices have historically recovered from the drops that often take place two to three days after earnings. The following numbers track gains/losses five days after close on the day of earnings.

    Q3 2010 +12.19
    Q4 2011 - 9.16
    Q1 2011 - +0.75
    Q2 2011 - +4.34
    Q3 2011 - +26.56

    Avg Gain, compared to Close Day of Earnings = 6.94

    Shares sold 5 days after earnings have shown greater growth than those sold on close the day after earnings, on average, though trail (modestly) shares sold at open or at the highs on the day after open. This might give investors more time to move than they think.

    After five days, however, the share prices have gone into modest decline (except for RED OCTOBER), four out of the past five quarters.

    Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and I’m not completely confident of the pattern, but I offer the numbers in hopes that some might find them useful.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 12:00 AM #37

    It’s noteworthy that of the most recent 8 quarters completed (excluding FQ4 2011), Apple has sold off only twice post earnings.  All six other times Apple has climbed.  A very good track record.

    I’m hoping for a replay of FQ3 2011 if we get a strong EPS beat with decent guidance, the importance of which is diminishing (WS laughed the last time).

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 12:05 AM #38

    We’ll see.  Last quarter we snuck up to a P/E of almost 16 not long after earnings, then took a LONG time to get back.  Granted, Jul-Sep was a trying time in the markets.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 12:20 AM #39

    Tuesday

    R4       453.16
      midpoint   447.78
    R3       442.40
      midpoint   437.02
    R2       431.64
      midpoint   428.73
    R1       425.81
      midpoint   423.35
    PP       420.88
      midpoint   417.97
    S1       415.05
      midpoint   412.59
    S2       410.12
      midpoint   404.74
    S3       399.36
      midpoint   393.98
    S4       388.60

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 12:36 AM #40

    Prazan - 18 October 2011 01:32 AM

    For those who don’t plan to sell day after earnings, another opportunity to sell might be presented four to five days after, when share prices have historically recovered from the drops that often take place two to three days after earnings. The following numbers track gains/losses five days after close on the day of earnings.

    Q3 2010 +12.19
    Q4 2011 - 9.16
    Q1 2011 - +0.75
    Q2 2011 - +4.34
    Q3 2011 - +26.56

    Avg Gain, compared to Close Day of Earnings = 6.94

    Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and I’m not completely confident of the pattern, but I offer the numbers in hopes that some might find them useful.

    Very informative post, thanks Prazan!!

    With options expriry on Friday, this would suggest ITM Oct calls might best be sold either Tues or Wed in your opinion?

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 12:38 AM #41

    Gregg Thurman - 17 October 2011 10:09 PM
    qualitywte - 17 October 2011 10:00 PM

    Even though the whisper number is around 8.8 (or was it 8.4), what EPS do you guys think is minimum to prevent a substantial sell off?  AAPL has blown away all estimates for so many quarters that it makes me nervous to think they come in at the low 8s.  Just give us that $10, make DT look brilliant, and we will all be happy!

    $9.00 to $9.40 Happy but not overly excited

    $9.40+ and AAPL just became a Saturn V rocket

    Below $9.00 and I don’t want to think about it.

    Gregg:

    I won’t be happy under $9.40 per share. At $9.40 per share it would represent a 102% YOY eps growth and put trailing 12-month earnings at just over $30. Since the release of the iPad 2, quarterly eps growth has averaged 107% over the two quarters. I don’t see a deterioration of eps growth in the September quarter. If there’s one product apt to deliver a unit sales surprise, it’s the Apple iPad. if the iPad delivers strong results and heavy foot traffic to the stores, we know the Mac numbers will be more than respectable.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 12:45 AM #42

    I want DT to be happy.

    It’s my goal in life.

    I want him happy in January, too….what will that be? 15 bucks?  grin

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 12:45 AM #43

    jjjz - 18 October 2011 03:36 AM
    Prazan - 18 October 2011 01:32 AM

    For those who don’t plan to sell day after earnings, another opportunity to sell might be presented four to five days after, when share prices have historically recovered from the drops that often take place two to three days after earnings. The following numbers track gains/losses five days after close on the day of earnings.

    Q3 2010 +12.19
    Q4 2011 - 9.16
    Q1 2011 - +0.75
    Q2 2011 - +4.34
    Q3 2011 - +26.56

    Avg Gain, compared to Close Day of Earnings = 6.94

    Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and I’m not completely confident of the pattern, but I offer the numbers in hopes that some might find them useful.

    Very informative post, thanks Prazan!!

    With options expriry on Friday, this would suggest ITM Oct calls might best be sold either Tues or Wed in your opinion?

    I’m the last person to ask about options, but other on this board will know. I’m thinking about swing trading about 20% of my shares as a low-risk way to improve gains.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 12:50 AM #44

    Red Shirted Ensign - 17 October 2011 09:39 PM

    O.K….just for the record, the last 1/4 of the 373 buy of two weeks ago was sold this morning at 424.  I said I wanted to sell this trading piece before earnings and did it. The four traunches went at 394, 408, 418 and 424.

    Now, I can sit back and enjoy tomorrow.

    DT, I hope your detailed and thoughtful estimate comes to pass, or something very near it. I’m a little worried that some bloggers I highly respect are in the low to mid 8 buck range…..

    I came in finally at $8.88, lucky numbers indeed but, I hope, way too conservative.  :wink:

    Money in your pocket, Red. Beautiful!  Most impressive that you still had ammo at 373. I know those were scary times, but I’ll bet you felt very good from the beginning on that buy.

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 12:57 AM #45

    Thanks.  It was a pure run to earnings play. There was nothing wrong with the stock, of course. If macro events allowed, logic would rule after SJ’s death was factored in. I told myself that I would not be greedy ( this time) and take the gains as they were offered.

    Now, next time…...... LOL

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before