Thundering herd: iPhone edition

  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 July 2012 06:26 PM #106

    Only one company other than Apple has a realistic shot at holding the line on profitability.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 July 2012 07:58 PM #107

    I should’ve noticed this.

    Nielsen needs to work on its?graphics

    Nielsen?released smartphone purchasing data yesterday?that depicted?Apple grabbing more than a third of the total smartphone market in the most recently surveyed month. Android was over 50 percent. That is almost 85 percent of the market together, which is a striking number (and over 90 percent in the last three months). But, you would not know it when looking at Nielsen?s graph:

    RIM at 9 percent seems to have almost the same share as Apple. Windows Mobile, Windows 7, Symbian, and Palm only come up with 5.8-percent of the market, but together they have a much larger piece of the pie than Apple.?Well, we did a little Photoshopping and put their portions into proportion:

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 16 July 2012 12:59 PM #108

    Another look at the mobile phone industry then and now from asymco

    Signature

    The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs

         
  • Posted: 16 July 2012 01:43 PM #109

    First, congratulations Samsung. Magnificent job. Now some may claim that they got a let up by copying Apple, but let’s set that aside for now. Unbelievable the way they’ve grown their phone business.

    Second, what does Samsung’s dominance in Android mean for Google? People aren’t talking about that enough.

    Third, where the heck is Windows Phone 7? An embarrassment even greater than the Kin. They’ve put their time, effort, money and reputation on the line and they’ve come up with nothing. And if they think they’re going to be rescued by Windows 8, well, we’ll see.

    But the question we all should be asking is why has Windows Phone 7 failed so spectacularly? One possible answer is that Microsoft simply entered the market way too late. And if that’s the case, then what does that tell us about the prospects for Windows 8?

    As always, time will tell. But that time is coming soon. By October, I expect to see Windows 8 desktops, Windows 8 tablets, Windows RT tablets, Windows 8 phones (???), the Surface, the second edition of the the Kindle Fire, the Nexus 7, the iPhone 5, possibly a smaller iPad…

    ...it’s like the Super Bowl of computing. Get your popcorn…it’s going to be quite a show.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 16 July 2012 02:38 PM #110

    FalKirk - 16 July 2012 04:43 PM

    But the question we all should be asking is why has Windows Phone 7 failed so spectacularly? One possible answer is that Microsoft simply entered the market way too late. And if that’s the case, then what does that tell us about the prospects for Windows 8?

    Windows Phone 7 failed partly because it was late, but mostly because it did not even match iOS or Android in function and ecosystem. As a newcomer it is not enough just to match the incumbents. Microsoft needs to deliver something clearly superior to change consumer perception. I doubt Windows Phone 8 will do that.

    As always, time will tell. But that time is coming soon. By October, I expect to see Windows 8 desktops, Windows 8 tablets, Windows RT tablets, Windows 8 phones (???), the Surface, the second edition of the the Kindle Fire, the Nexus 7, the iPhone 5, possibly a smaller iPad…

    ...it’s like the Super Bowl of computing. Get your popcorn…it’s going to be quite a show.

    It will be an entertaining show for us AAPL investors. I’m not so sure the other fans are going to enjoy it much. Gonna be lots of popcorn and beer throwing.

         
  • Posted: 16 July 2012 02:50 PM #111

    Drew Bear - 16 July 2012 05:38 PM

    Windows Phone 7 failed partly because it was late, but mostly because it did not even match iOS or Android in function and ecosystem.

    I would argue that being late to the game and not having a proper App, content and administrative ecosystem are one and the same thing.

    It takes time (and money, and effort and non-monetary resources and attention - but most importantly, time) to build up the infrastructure necessary to support a platform. And perhaps more importantly, when you come late to the platform game, you’ve made it very hard to win the war for the heart’s and minds (and wallets) of developers.

    Seems to me that these are the exact same problems facing Windows 8, today. They are being argued away because:

    - IT will always go with Microsoft; and
    - Office is the killer App that will win the day (there should be an announcement about that today).

    I don’t think that either of those tow exceptions rationales are as compelling as people think. We’ll see. And we’ll see very soon.

         
  • Posted: 16 July 2012 06:20 PM #112

    FalKirk - 16 July 2012 05:50 PM
    Drew Bear - 16 July 2012 05:38 PM

    Windows Phone 7 failed partly because it was late, but mostly because it did not even match iOS or Android in function and ecosystem.

    I would argue that being late to the game and not having a proper App, content and administrative ecosystem are one and the same thing.

    It takes time (and money, and effort and non-monetary resources and attention - but most importantly, time) to build up the infrastructure necessary to support a platform. And perhaps more importantly, when you come late to the platform game, you’ve made it very hard to win the war for the heart’s and minds (and wallets) of developers.

    Seems to me that these are the exact same problems facing Windows 8, today. They are being argued away because:

    - IT will always go with Microsoft; and
    - Office is the killer App that will win the day (there should be an announcement about that today).

    I don’t think that either of those tow exceptions rationales are as compelling as people think. We’ll see. And we’ll see very soon.

    Our It is about to deploy Windows 7.  Windows 8?  Possibly never.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 18 July 2012 01:31 PM #113

    Relatively well. Imagine what the headlines would be if it took an AT&T/Verizon/Sprint outlet 2 days to sell 20 of the next gen iPhone any time during the first month after launch.

    Samsung Galaxy S III Off to Good Start, Says Raymond James

    ...the Galaxy S3 launch appears to be going relatively well…it appears each store received roughly 10-20 phones in its initial shipment and most stores sold out within 2-4 days.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/07/18/samsung-galaxy-s-iii-off-to-good-start-says-raymond-james/?mod=yahoobarrons

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 18 July 2012 01:52 PM #114

    Drew Bear - 18 July 2012 04:31 PM

    Relatively well. Imagine what the headlines would be if it took an AT&T/Verizon/Sprint outlet 2 days to sell 20 of the next gen iPhone any time during the first month after launch.

    Samsung Galaxy S III Off to Good Start, Says Raymond James

    ...the Galaxy S3 launch appears to be going relatively well…it appears each store received roughly 10-20 phones in its initial shipment and most stores sold out within 2-4 days.

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/07/18/samsung-galaxy-s-iii-off-to-good-start-says-raymond-james/?mod=yahoobarrons

    Too funny.  Maybe Sammy should have only sent 5 to each outlet to reduce the number of days to sell out.  smile

    Would be interesting to know the number of sales outlets for this phone.  Could it be that there are quite a bit more than AAPL?

         
  • Posted: 18 July 2012 01:57 PM #115

    Zeke - 16 July 2012 09:20 PM
    FalKirk - 16 July 2012 05:50 PM
    Drew Bear - 16 July 2012 05:38 PM

    Windows Phone 7 failed partly because it was late, but mostly because it did not even match iOS or Android in function and ecosystem.

    I would argue that being late to the game and not having a proper App, content and administrative ecosystem are one and the same thing.

    It takes time (and money, and effort and non-monetary resources and attention - but most importantly, time) to build up the infrastructure necessary to support a platform. And perhaps more importantly, when you come late to the platform game, you’ve made it very hard to win the war for the heart’s and minds (and wallets) of developers.

    Seems to me that these are the exact same problems facing Windows 8, today. They are being argued away because:

    - IT will always go with Microsoft; and
    - Office is the killer App that will win the day (there should be an announcement about that today).

    I don’t think that either of those tow exceptions rationales are as compelling as people think. We’ll see. And we’ll see very soon.

    Our It is about to deploy Windows 7.  Windows 8?  Possibly never.


    And Office is not going to work with touch very well.  IT loathes change, particularly the change Windows 8 represents.  I’m telling you, Windows 8 is going to be the second coming of Vista for different reasons but in the end it spells:  No adoption.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 18 July 2012 02:29 PM #116

    I feel bad enough about upgrading to 10.7 or 10.8 from 10.6.

    Imagine how Windows users would feel.  Windows 8 may be the biggest flop of Tech in a long time—>  which did not have to be.  MSFT shot their own foot to a new dimension.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 20 July 2012 01:03 AM #117

    Via Gruber’s link to Ben Evans.

    Pretty hard to look at this chart and argue that the iPhone is doing second-best to Android in the USA?

    http://www.ben-evans.com/post/27556793103/iphone-in-the-usa

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 20 July 2012 01:13 AM #118

    FalKirk - 16 July 2012 04:43 PM

    First, congratulations Samsung. Magnificent job. Now some may claim that they got a let up by copying Apple, but let’s set that aside for now. Unbelievable the way they’ve grown their phone business.

    Well, the only logical thing for a mega-million seller of handsets now and in the past is to aggressively push the mix towards smartphones.  So let’s be careful not to give Samsung, a megacorporation that’s outsold Apple’s handset business from Day One, too much credit here.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 23 July 2012 01:12 AM #119

    Remember this headline from May 18, 2012?

    Samsung Received 9 Million Pre-Orders for the Galaxy S3

    http://news.yahoo.com/samsung-received-9-million-pre-orders-galaxy-s3-045514946.html

    Today we get this:

    Samsung?s Galaxy S III surpasses 10 million sales in less than two months

    http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/07/22/samsungs-galaxy-s-iii-surpasses-10-million-sales-in-less-than-two-months/

    So does that mean that Sammy shipped only 1 million more phones in 2 months? Or does it mean that the pre-orders weren’t really sold yet? Wait, maybe they meant that shipments were so smooth that sales were….

    Never mind. Sounds like BS however you want to spin it. And it’s not necessary to do this. They’re doing great and this product is selling fantastic for a non-iPhone. Be proud, Samsung. Start reporting sales numbers & ASP again.

         
  • Posted: 23 July 2012 01:18 AM #120

    Drew Bear - 23 July 2012 04:12 AM

    Remember this headline from May 18, 2012?

    Samsung Received 9 Million Pre-Orders for the Galaxy S3

    http://news.yahoo.com/samsung-received-9-million-pre-orders-galaxy-s3-045514946.html

    Today we get this:

    Samsung?s Galaxy S III surpasses 10 million sales in less than two months

    http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2012/07/22/samsungs-galaxy-s-iii-surpasses-10-million-sales-in-less-than-two-months/

    So does that mean that Sammy shipped only 1 million more phones in 2 months? Or does it mean that the pre-orders weren’t really sold yet? Wait, maybe they meant that shipments were so smooth that sales were….

    Never mind. Sounds like BS however you want to spin it. And it’s not necessary to do this. They’re doing great and this product is selling fantastic for a non-iPhone. Be proud, Samsung. Start reporting sales numbers & ASP again.

    I think it is a lot of SPIN.  I was in a large ATT store and two separate reps confirmed a significant slowdown in interest with the Galaxy S III.  SameSung can suck it.