Thundering herd: iPhone edition

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    Posted: 20 October 2011 04:05 PM #16

    This week was supposed to be the big announcement time for Google and their hardware partners. It was supposed to be their counter to all the iPhone 4S and Siri news that dominated last week. So what happened?

    On Tuesday, Oct. 18th, 9 AM PDT, Motorola reveals the Razr with Android 2.3.5, $299 subsidized to be available sometime in November. Thin. Kevlar back. Ho hum.

    Ten hours later, Google announces Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich with some nice improvements, but with nothing that generated headlines like Siri did. Samsung closes the event with the intro of the Galaxy Nexus. No price given and again “available in November”.

    So here we are less than 2 days later and the buzz has already faded. Thunder on!

    iPhone 4S lines starting next week in 22 countries.

         
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    Posted: 20 October 2011 04:13 PM #17

    Drew Bear - 20 October 2011 07:05 PM

    This week was supposed to be the big announcement time for Google and their hardware partners. It was supposed to be their counter to all the iPhone 4S and Siri news that dominated last week. So what happened?

    On Tuesday, Oct. 18th, 9 AM PDT, Motorola reveals the Razr with Android 2.3.5, $299 subsidized to be available sometime in November. Thin. Kevlar back. Ho hum.

    Ten hours later, Google announces Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich with some nice improvements, but with nothing that generated headlines like Siri did. Samsung closes the event with the intro of the Galaxy Nexus. No price given and again “available in November”.

    So here we are less than 2 days later and the buzz has already faded. Thunder on!

    iPhone 4S lines starting next week in 22 countries.

    Visted the Verizon and Sprint stores at the neighborhood mall. No Iphone 4ses in stock, of course. Demos on display with several people in both stores having fun asking Siri questions….Saleslady for Verizon said she could not wait, just could not wait, until the staff were allowed to get the Iphone 4s at their subsidized price. She says she is asked “at least a dozen times a day” when the next shipment is due. I asked her if she tried to sell the inquiring customers (and potential customers) other phones since the Iphone 4s was out of stock temporarily. She said, “no, those people know what they want. We tried it at first but it was better to help them order the iphone on line or explain the Iphone 4 as a less expensive alternative than to try a different brand”.

    So it goes.

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    Posted: 26 October 2011 04:11 PM #18

    After nearly nine months of gestation, Microsoft and Nokia have finally given birth to their first two “kids”.

    The $585 Lumia 800 will compete (or not) with the iPhone 4S. It has a 3.7-inch 480 x 800 pixel AMOLED display, 1.4GHz single-core processor and 16 GB of storage. The chassis is polycarbonate.

    The $375 Lumia 710 incorporates the same display & processor, but has only 8 GB of storage. It will compete with the iPhone 3GS and the hordes of sub-$300 Android phones.

         
  • Posted: 27 October 2011 03:28 AM #19

    Leica vs. Brownie.  This won’t go well for the new best friends.  Forgetting the hardware aspect for a moment…,can they not see how fugly the home screen is?  It’s just BAD!

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    Posted: 27 October 2011 03:47 AM #20

    I can’t overlook the hardware aspect.  No dual-core?!  Even the 4S has dual-core now. 

    Microkia, what’s the problem?

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  • Posted: 27 October 2011 08:01 AM #21

    I went by the Apple store in downtown Portland yesterday around lunchtime.  They had the iPhone 4S in stock and I saw several customers buying them, two were getting rung up for 2 phones each.

    I like the supply picture I am seeing (yeah, I know it was only one store), and the international release schedule. Quarter could be big, real big.

         
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    Posted: 27 October 2011 03:57 PM #22

    Drew Bear - 26 October 2011 07:11 PM

    After nearly nine months of gestation, Microsoft and Nokia have finally given birth to their first two “kids”.

    The $585 Lumia 800 will compete (or not) with the iPhone 4S. It has a 3.7-inch 480 x 800 pixel AMOLED display, 1.4GHz single-core processor and 16 GB of storage. The chassis is polycarbonate.

    The $375 Lumia 710 incorporates the same display & processor, but has only 8 GB of storage. It will compete with the iPhone 3GS and the hordes of sub-$300 Android phones.

    “Lumia” Spanish translation.

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    Posted: 27 October 2011 04:19 PM #23

    This was posted in the Intraday, but largely ignored.

    Android Orphans: Visualizing a Sad History of Support

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    Posted: 27 October 2011 04:46 PM #24

    JDSoCal - 27 October 2011 07:19 PM

    Android Orphans: Visualizing a Sad History of Support

    The hacker community has frequently managed to get these phones to run the newer operating systems, so it isn?t a hardware issue.

    It appears to be a widely held viewpoint that there?s no incentive for smartphone manufacturers to update the OS: because manufacturers don?t make any money after the hardware sale, they want you to buy another phone as soon as possible…

    In other words, Apple?s way of getting you to buy a new phone is to make you really happy with your current one, whereas apparently Android phone makers think they can get you to buy a new phone by making you really unhappy with your current one.

    Once bitten, twice shy. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

    Or maybe Android fans simply enjoy buying a new phone every 6-12 months?

         
  • Posted: 28 October 2011 09:16 AM #25

    Mace - 19 October 2011 06:29 PM

    So, why do folks buy Android?

    a.  Everything except Apple?
    b.  Android represents freedom of choice?
    c.  Low end Android is cheap?
    d.  New model every few weeks/months?
    e.  Easily hackable?
    f.  Massive push by handset makers for survival/ carriers to avoid lock by a single handset maker?

    Given above, should Apple license its iOS 5?  Is having iPod touch and three models of iPhone in the market is sufficient variants to cater to different needs* of the consumer?  *except geeks.

    I think there are two main reasons:

    Manufacturing: The smart phone market is increasing by some 80% per year. Apple’s integrated model has many advantages but Apple is just one company. The Android licensing for free model allows a plethora of companies to build Android phones. In a market with virtually no ceiling, the one who produces the most sells the most. Apple just got out-manufactured. But that’s about to change. Apple just guided to a 37 billion dollar quarter. Expect Apple to sell a LOT of iPhones.

    Carriers: The iPod Touch dominates its market space. The iPad dominates its market space. But the iPhone has stiff competition. What’s the difference between the iPhone and the iPod Touch/iPad?

    The carriers.

    As Horace Dediu has pointed out in Asymco, the carriers have distorted the phone market both by advertising Android, promoting Android in their stores and simply because more carriers carry Android.

    That is slowly, but surely, changing. Apple is opening up the phone to more carrier and more countries every day. In almost all cases, when Apple goes head- to-head with Android within a carrier, they win. The more carriers Apple can get their phones into, the more the Android’s carrier advantage will dissipate.

         
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    Posted: 28 October 2011 10:14 AM #26

    As far as manufacturing capacity goes, Apple continues to take a balanced approach IMO. Apple aims for sustainable growth.  Rather then just build units and hope folks buy them they have taken a measured planned approach where they add carriers/countries as they increase capacity, as a result their market share has not increased at the rate of Android, but until this qtr they exceeded the overall rate of smartphone growth.  The individual Android players are able to fill in the gaps, but what is often lost in this analysis is the longer term viability of the manufacturer.  We will need to wait and see if this qtrs Apple’s results are a one time anomaly due to the model changeover or a new ominous trend.  If Apple sales tank next qtr and android sales flourish, we have a major problem.  PED ran an interesting graphic on Android vs iPhone in the US market.  Which provides us a view into the future at least in the US market.

    This most recent qtr the android Army did not make up the difference when Apple stumbled with the late release of iPhone 4S.  This tells me that growth rates have peaked in the US and it will be turning into a real head to head battle in 2012.  Mike Mace did an article   The shape of the smartphone and mobile data markets.  In the article he talks about the fact that mobile data is not for everyone.  While I think his percentage is off, I believe the folks wanting a data driven device is less then 100% of the total market and market saturation will occur.

         
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    Posted: 28 October 2011 10:48 AM #27

    Samsung overtakes Apple to become world smartphone leader
    Let the android fanboys celebrate their victory while we will wait for the outcome of this quarter…

         
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    Posted: 28 October 2011 03:57 PM #28

    Elmar - 28 October 2011 01:48 PM

    Samsung overtakes Apple to become world smartphone leader
    Let the android fanboys celebrate their victory while we will wait for the outcome of this quarter…

    Samsung no longer reports actual shipment numbers so I would take this analysis with a grain of salt.

    Here is the slide deck from Samsungs CC.  They claim high 20% YOY growth.  If we look back to Q3 2010 Samsung reported 71.4M handsets 11% Smartphones = 7.854M.  89.96-92.1 total handsets.

         
  • Posted: 28 October 2011 04:10 PM #29

    Deleted.

    [ Edited: 28 October 2011 05:53 PM by FalKirk ]      
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    Posted: 28 October 2011 04:35 PM #30

    Samsung overtakes Apple in smartphones, trails in profits
    By Philip Elmer-DeWitt October 28, 2011

    Samsung announced Friday that it either shipped or sold (reports differ) 27.8 million smartphones last quarter, easily outpacing the 17.07 million iPhones that Apple sold in the same period…

    Samsung…reported profits of $2.2 billion from smartphone sales last quarter…

    iPhone sales last quarter…generated revenues of nearly $11 billion…Assuming, conservatively, 60% profit margins on each iPhone sold, that’s an estimated profit of $6.5 billion, leaving No. 1 Samsung in the dust.

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/28/samsung-overtakes-apple-in-smartphones-trails-in-profits/

    Once again, there are a number of ways to score the smartphone wars. Samsung wins in terms of unit sales. Apple wins in terms of profits. Notice that of the dozens of headlines covering this news, PED’s was the only one that mentioned profits.