AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 18 October 2011 10:40 PM #16

    I’m expecting a number of analysts to significantly raise their guidance tomorrow, so this could be the first of many:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2011/10/18/apple-what-miss-btig-boosts-estimates-price-target/?partner=yahootix

    And as I stated in the other thread, I’m also expecting a sizeable bounce off of the 390s to well over 400 tomorrow.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 10:47 PM #17

    Prazan - 19 October 2011 01:01 AM

    In retrospect, you made a great series of trades these past few days, Ensign.

    +1

    Well done, Red!!

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 10:49 PM #18

    Unique, please post your TA.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 10:50 PM #19

    My Jan/Apr 12 trades don’t look to be off to a good start based on AH action, but I’ve been looking past the entire time.

    Of course I wouldn’t have bought if I knew a $7 EPS quarter was around the corner.  But I _do_ know a $11 EPS quarter is all but assured.  iPhone 4S will begin making up lost ground very, very quickly.

    I’m pretty excited about this quarter, actually.  High volatility, but plenty of opportunity.  And while my one side bet trade is probably toast and my two trades are locked in perhaps for a little while, I’ve still got a little cash in the account to play with.  :evilsanta:

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 10:50 PM #20

    Phoebear611 - 19 October 2011 01:29 AM

    Wow - what is up with you guys?

    Spoken like a guy without options positions expiring on Friday.

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 10:51 PM #21

    iOSWeekly - 19 October 2011 01:30 AM

    Any holding common or LEAPS, I woudl think should just hold - as 3 months from now after Jan earnings they will be well north of yesterdays close.

    Those holding Calls expiring within the next few months, good luck to you all.

    I’m holding Jan/Apr 12 bull call spreads.  Not worried at all.  I based the trades on much more conservative projections anyway.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 10:56 PM #22

    Phoebear611 - 19 October 2011 01:29 AM

    Wow - what is up with you guys?  It is still the best company on earth…how is this SSSOOOO negative? Or negative at ALL!? Geez! I hold and buy more on the dip.

    Shareholders and LEAP holders: stay focused on the Big Picture.

    Short-term underwater option holders, if you post what you’re holding, we can brainstorm some potential damage control…

    [ Edited: 18 October 2011 11:04 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 10:59 PM #23

    JDSoCal - 19 October 2011 01:50 AM
    Phoebear611 - 19 October 2011 01:29 AM

    Wow - what is up with you guys?

    Spoken like a guy without options positions expiring on Friday.

    Luckily, I sold my couple of oct calls at HOD today.  But still have Nov calls which hopefully will be ok. I only buy deep in the money calls. Profit might be gone, but Hopefully no overall loss.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:01 PM #24

    You can’t “fix” what’s broken in that sense.  When you commit to a trade, you have to take what comes.  Sure, you can make other trades, but they should be looked at separately, not in the context of trying to save what may be lost.

    Note, November OE is still a ways off.  Damage control may only be applicable to Oct 22 folks.

    In my case I’ll take a hit most likely, but not a major one as a % of portfolio.  Stick to your plan, adjust to market conditions (don’t ever knee-jerk react) and if you’re feeling uneasy, trade according to your risk tolerance.  It’s really pretty easy after that.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:04 PM #25

    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 01:56 AM
    Phoebear611 - 19 October 2011 01:29 AM

    Wow - what is up with you guys?  It is still the best company on earth…how is this SSSOOOO negative? Or negative at ALL!? Geez! I hold and buy more on the dip.

    Shareholders and LEAP holders: stay focused on the Big Picture.

    Short-term underwater option holders, if you post what you’re holding, we can brainstorm some potential fixes…

    I have a bunch of long-term options, but I also have a decent chunk of Oct 380/390s and Oct 400/405s as well. Had some small bets at higher values, but those are probably dead. Just hoping at the minimum that I can get as close to max P/L on the 380/390s so I can come out a bit better than breakeven.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 11:04 PM #26

    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 01:56 AM
    Phoebear611 - 19 October 2011 01:29 AM

    Wow - what is up with you guys?  It is still the best company on earth…how is this SSSOOOO negative? Or negative at ALL!? Geez! I hold and buy more on the dip.

    Shareholders and LEAP holders: stay focused on the Big Picture.

    Short-term underwater option holders, if you post what you’re holding, we can brainstorm some potential fixes…

    I’ve some Nov 410-420 spreads. I might cover the short leg on the dip and let the other one rip. OI on monthlies for NOV right now is 400 for puts and 440 for calls. Of course this could change, but even if we close at 420, I’d actually be in profit. Should I buy back short leg on dip or just let the spread be? iPad?

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:05 PM #27

    Edited “fix”—-> “damage control”

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:07 PM #28

    JDSoCal - 19 October 2011 01:50 AM
    Phoebear611 - 19 October 2011 01:29 AM

    Wow - what is up with you guys?

    Spoken like a guy without options positions expiring on Friday.

    Sorry JD

    you made me think about something.  Max Pain was 385.  It has stayed at that level for quite some time.  maybe is time to start focusing on that more often for guidance.  No matter how many iPhone and Ipads we think they will sell or how high the market and the stock price is, if max pain is so much lower and we are still just a week away, it is clear those in the know were going to sell the stock and drop it to its knees.  500K shares traded in AH can dictate the rest of the day.

    something was off when I saw how IBM was treated.  We went up so fast from 380 that I was taken back with 426.  We all hoped for 440 but options gave us a guide that WS insiders were expecting a different result.

    Now I would not be surprised if we close around 385 on Friday.  A few folks will make millions of dollars off those puts.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:13 PM #29

    Well Love,

    That’s depressing but I am particularly worried about my OCT $390 and $400. Not sure whether to sell them at open or wait. My Nov $365 I can wait a few day to make a decision on. Also hold Jan $390 and Apr $380, but those I can wait on too. I never like to be in less then 3 months but I guess I got carried away by all the enthusiasm. Been doing this too long, lesson learned, again. Still looking at a six figure haircut.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:14 PM #30

    CdnPhoto - 18 October 2011 10:59 PM
    Hamourabi - 18 October 2011 10:55 PM

    @ $395 with the new trailing one year EPS at $27.66,  P/E is down to 14.3 .

    I expect we will be back above $400 sometime this week.

    at $395, we’re higher than we were last Monday.

    The rational nature of these statements is shocking.