AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 21 October 2011 10:14 AM #271

    Premarket Update

    Good morning!

    For no particular reason, futures are pointing to a higher open as we get ready to close out options expiration week. Microsoft reported last night and GE this morning and neither one is budging much, with GE actually down slightly in spite of their proclamations that they plan to grow revenues next year.

    Yesterday was a decent roller coaster ride and there’s no reason to believe today will be any different. Of concern yesterday was the VIX climbing back over 36, and luckily for the bears, it settled down by days end. Still, we must keep an eye on this important indicator as it might be telling us that some selling is in store soon.

    Europe continues to be in the spotlight, with more meeting scheduled over the next week, and with many analysts wondering if they have the resolve to get some type of “plan” in place. So far they’ve gotten the benefit of the doubt but that could all change if talks fall apart.

    There are no key economic reports due out this morning so traders will focus on earnings and options expiration. No doubt the market makers will do what they can to avoid paying out any more options premiums than necessary thus the likelihood of another volatile day.

    Key numbers to watch now: A close over 36 on the VIX; that would be bearish. A close below 1177 on the S&P; that would be bearish. A clove above 1233 on the S&P; that would be bullish.

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 10:20 AM #272

    Market Indicators

    Health Care Sector - 10/21/2011 8:58:18 AM

    Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved its Androderm 2 mg and 4 mg formulation. The new smaller size and lower-dose testosterone patch provides highly effective testosterone administration with a 20 percent reduction in the active ingredient from the original strength in a smaller patch size.

    athenahealth (ATHN) reported yesterday that third quarter non-GAAP net income was $8.7 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, compared with the prior-year period’s $6.4 million, or $0.18 per share. Revenues were $83.7 million, up 33% from $63.1 million in the comparable period last year. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were expecting the company to post earnings of $0.21 per share on revenues of $82.77 million.
    .  .  .

    Technology Sector - 10/21/2011 8:55:39 AM

    Robert W. Baird reportedly upgraded Seagate (STX) to Outperform from Neutral. The firm cited valuation, expected market share gains, and benefits from industry consolidation. Yesterday, Seagate reported Q1 EPS of $0.32 on sales of $2.8 billion. The Street view is for EPS of $0.31 on sales of $2.90 billion. Seagate is surging 15.3%.

    Microsoft (MSFT) reported Q1 earnings of $0.68 per share on revenue of $17.37 bln, vs. the analyst consensus of $0.68 per share in earnings on revenue of $17.23 bln.
    .  .  .

    Energy Sector - 10/21/2011 8:54:50 AM
    Crude oil futures advance with the December contract trading over $87 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    Schlumberger (SLB) reported Q3 revenue of $10.23 bln, up from $6.85 billion in the year ago quarter. Earnings were $0.98, up from $0.70 per share in Q3 last year.

    Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports the oil major’s Asia Chairman Kwa Chong Seng is retiring at the end of this month. Exxon shares are up 0.7% in pre-market trade.

    In energy ETFs, the United States Oil Fund (USO) is up 0.99% to $33.33. The United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) is down 0.57% to $8.79.
    .  .  .

    Pre-Market Upside and Downside Movers - 10/21/2011 8:53:43 AM
    UPSIDE MOVERS
    MSFT: 26.84 to 27.20
    STX: 13.32 to 13.85
    MCD: 88.03 to 91.58
    SNDK: 46.60 to 47.14
    HON: 48.53 to 50.60

    DOWNSIDE MOVERS
    GE: 16.75 to 16.34
    MTG: 2.44 to 2.00
    SLB: 67.99 to 65.47
    .  .  .

    Pre-Market News Movers - 10/21/2011 8:53:11 AM

    MSFT, -0.2%
    GE, -1.1%
    HON, +4.2%
    MCD, +2.3%
    SLB, -1.7%
    VZ, steady
    STX, +11%
    AIXG, -7%
    CMG, +3.5%
    SNDK, +3.3%
    .  .  .

    Major Corporate & Economic Events, Oct. 21 - 10/21/2011 8:04:48 AM
    FRIDAY, Oct. 21

    Extended-Hours Earnings: AOS, APD, DOV, GE, HAR, HON, IDXX, MAN, MNI, SLB, STI, VZ.

         
  • Posted: 21 October 2011 11:25 AM #273

    Big fight and a lot of money to prevent AAPL follow the Nas or to get ready for a selloff

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 11:26 AM #274

    Good Morning Boys and Girls

    Well since Wed our stock has been beaten down.  Even today while the market is up over 1.5% we are barely up.  If the market cuts its gains in half we will be negative.  The Bears are in charge and determined to keep us down for OE.

    Volume is high which tells me there is a huge battle between bulls and bears.  If we can close above 400 then I would be much happier.

         
  • Posted: 21 October 2011 11:31 AM #275

    omacvi - 21 October 2011 02:26 PM

    Good Morning Boys and Girls

    Well since Wed our stock has been beaten down.  Even today while the market is up over 1.5% we are barely up.  If the market cuts its gains in half we will be negative.  The Bears are in charge and determined to keep us down for OE.

    Volume is high which tells me there is a huge battle between bulls and bears.  If we can close above 400 then I would be much happier.

    We are going to be in a DOGHOUSE for quite some time. Back to back events (SJ Passing and Apple Miss) seems to have created the perfect storm for Apple Longs. All momentum has left the stock.  I wonder if we are in the 400s becuase of options, and days to 380 and lower could still be ahead.

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 11:48 AM #276

    “During the question-and-answer session of Verizon’s call, executives were asked to reveal how many iPhone 4S units were sold by the carrier at launch. Verizon Telecom and Business CEO Fran Shammo said the company was pleased with iPhone 4S sales and ran out on the first day, but said he wouldn’t get into volumes.”

    ——

    I wonder is this reticence could be because Verizon was allocated far fewer phones than AT&T.  After all, they sold out…...sold everything they had…...so why not give the number unless it would show the got fewer than their rival?

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 11:51 AM #277

    What is interesting is that only 27% of iPhones were sold in the US last quarter.

    The pent up demand is huge as folks with Verizon finally upgrade to one and the rest decide that they won’t wait another 12 months for the iPHone 5.

    I see aapl at 398 as a bigger savings then seeing it at 330 back in March.  Our stock should be close to 500 right now.  That coilled spring will really jump in Jan and then go airborne in April of next year.

    I am tempted in selling some stock since we could see 380, but I have learned that attempting to time this will burn me every time.

    Great point Redl, but it is also possible that people will go for the faster network.  ATT has been beating them since Feb.

    [ Edited: 21 October 2011 11:54 AM by omacvi ]      
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 11:52 AM #278

    Travis over at apple pain on why we are stuck today..


    10/21/11 - 7:20 AM - AAPL will keep hitting the $400 strike and coming down. The only way AAPL can go above $400 or let?s just say make it much easier is when the $400 call OI closes down, where not as much money is on the line. So when you get 35K-70K vol on $400 strike thats when aapl would be allowed to run.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 12:17 PM #279

    adamthompson3232 - 21 October 2011 03:12 PM
    Red Shirted Ensign - 21 October 2011 02:48 PM

    “During the question-and-answer session of Verizon’s call, executives were asked to reveal how many iPhone 4S units were sold by the carrier at launch. Verizon Telecom and Business CEO Fran Shammo said the company was pleased with iPhone 4S sales and ran out on the first day, but said he wouldn’t get into volumes.”

    ——

    I wonder is this reticence could be because Verizon was allocated far fewer phones than AT&T.  After all, they sold out…...sold everything they had…...so why not give the number unless it would show the got fewer than their rival?

    They sold out, but reportedly ATT sold out first. I suspect ATT and VZ got the same, or very similar allocation of phones due to their similar subscriber base. But maybe ATT did get more since they have a large installed iPhone user base and a larger overall smart phone user base (largely due to iPhone). Regardless, I have no doubt ATT is doing better than VZ with iPhone. I think data speeds really matter in this battle and ATT is a clear winner on that front. After all, does anyone really talk on the phone anymore?:)

    Lol, yes, we need a better term than “phone”

    It does not bother me that the carriers are battling to see who can sell the most iPhones.  My visit to local Verizon outlets shows no iPhone 4s inventory, plenty of walk in interest and people lined up at the demo stand to play with Siri.  No worries.

    Edited to say sorry for basically repeating Sponge. Just saw his post.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 01:07 PM #280

    thealct - 21 October 2011 02:31 PM
    omacvi - 21 October 2011 02:26 PM

    Good Morning Boys and Girls

    Well since Wed our stock has been beaten down.  Even today while the market is up over 1.5% we are barely up.  If the market cuts its gains in half we will be negative.  The Bears are in charge and determined to keep us down for OE.

    Volume is high which tells me there is a huge battle between bulls and bears.  If we can close above 400 then I would be much happier.

    We are going to be in a DOGHOUSE for quite some time. Back to back events (SJ Passing and Apple Miss) seems to have created the perfect storm for Apple Longs. All momentum has left the stock.  I wonder if we are in the 400s becuase of options, and days to 380 and lower could still be ahead.

    20d EMA is at $398.16
    50d EMA is at $389.55
    AAPL is not going to go significantly below the 50d EMA. Also AAPL is still trading nicely in an uprising channel since the winter of 2009, whose bottom is $362.46 this week, and rising $2.50 every week.
    I am ready to buy a lot of Jan12 ITM options when AAPL goes to $390 and more at $380. I expect them to double by expiration.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 01:44 PM #281

    Unique - 21 October 2011 04:09 PM

    Why won’t it go significantly below 50d EMA? We’ve done it before. What is your reasoning?

    We did 422->355, and where were you?

    These are the charts I consider for my month to month trades:


    For a better view, open the image in a new tab.

    I think that by now most of the uncertainty (Jobs’ health) has been removed from Apple and that there are few surprises that can pop up. Black swan events are hedged, as far as they can be hedged, by $80B scattered around the world. Trips below the 50d-EMA were brief, deep, but not so deep to endanger the 200d EMA. The fact that they were brief and in light of my plant to hold Jan 12 options until expiration (or close by), makes any further dips below the 50d-EMA inconsequential. NB: based on fundamentals my price target for January is $464.

    Between $422 and $355 I was dodging strikes in Athens and Rome, at a funeral, and generally running scared.
    smile

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 02:05 PM #282

    Market Chatter

    [TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

    PRICE/VOLUME COMBINATION:

    In the short-term, the bulls did EXACTLY what we discussed and what they needed to do - successfully test those 20 day EMAs on a pullback and bounce. After bouncing perfectly off that support, our major indices are exploding higher this morning on moderate volume. We know we have a very bearish week approaching from an historical perspective, so what will traders do going into the close today? A deep selloff would be bearish technically, although there could be fundamental developments in Europe over the weekend that could have a drastic impact on trading here. So many issues still remain.

    MACD DIVERGENCES:

    Daily divergences continue to support this rally, while weekly MACDs are less favorable. The 60 minute divergences are swinging wildly again. Things started looking more bearish mid-day yesterday, then prices reversed higher, taking the MACD with it. Now the MACD is looking more bullish on the 60 minute charts, but how can we trust it?

    MOMENTUM OSCILLATORS:

    The stochastics and RSI are as follows on our major indices:

    Dow Jones: 92-60 S&P 500: 90-59 NASDAQ: 85-57 Russell 2000: 88-55

    Here comes yet another big test at RSI 60. All the previous ones during this downtrend have failed. Will this one be any different?

    SENTIMENT:

    After touching 37 yesterday, the VIX fell back into the 31s earlier today and is now bouncing a bit again. While we’re seeing much fluctuation, the fact that the VIX remains in the 30s after the rise in equities we’ve seen in October is disturbing. Market participants are anticipating more weakness ahead based on the level of the VIX.

    The equity only put call ratio (EOPCR) is at .54 as of 11:00am EST and relative complacency jumped back up to 9.72%. The .54 reading would be the lowest level since August 29th’s .53 reading. The S&P 500 failed to move much higher before a significant selloff in early September after that reading.

    MAX PAIN:

    We’ll revisit max pain the week before November options expire.

    HISTORY:

    The Bowley Trend is our historical indicator that alerts us to specific periods throughout the year when three of our key indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000) tend to trend in one direction or the other.

    The major indices will be NEUTRAL all week, but will turn VERY BEARISH at today’s close as next week is the worst performing week of the year historically.

    To give you a sense of the bearishness that could affect upcoming trading, consider the annualized returns for each day next week on the NASDAQ:

    October 24th (Monday): -101.03% October 25th (Tuesday): -72.06% October 26th (Wednesday): -90.75% October 27th (Thursday): -135.29%

    But there’s good news - next Friday marks the beginning of one of the most bullish historical periods of the year. The annualized return for October 28th (Friday) on the NASDAQ is +179.90%, marking one of the most bullish days of the year.

    This doesn’t mean that the market goes down EVERY year during this upcoming historical bearish period. But the odds are certainly greater.

    SECTORS:

    All 9 sectors are moving higher at a decent rate with consumer discretionary and financials at the forefront. Homebuilders are adding to their recent impressive gains and that’s adding to the bullishness. It’s nice to see this industry group leading for a change.

    Consumer staples and utilities are lagging, though they’re posting nice gains today as well.

    One key ratio I like to look at is the relationship between consumer discretionary (XLY) stocks and consumer staples (XLP). That ratio (XLY:XLP) plotted on StockCharts shows that we have NOT seen a necessary breakout on a relative basis in discretionary stocks. This is still a little bothersome. Similarly, financials have been performing much better on a relative basis in the near-term, but the Dow Jones US Financial Index vs. the S&P 500 ($DJUSFN:$SPX on StockCharts) has not broken its long-term downtrend. To really be on board for a serious rally, I’d need to see the recent relative strength in financials continue.

    The action in the 10 year treasury yield remains bullish. After testing price support at 2.11% and approaching both key moving averages - the 20 day EMA and the 50 day SMA - the yield has bounced higher, which was necessary to sustain the recent equity market strength. The 2.30%-2.35% area of resistance still seems to be critical, however. Negotiating that level of resistance may hold the key for an explosive equity rally into year end, so watch that level carefully.

    ECONOMIC AND EARNINGS REPORTS:

    No economic reports of significance are due out today.

    Earnings reports are once again mixed. McDonald’s (MCD) is trading at an all-time high after reporting excellent results. Microsoft (MSFT) and General Electric (GE) were more in-line and the market is essentially ignoring them both. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Capital One (COF) both topped estimates and shareholders are being rewarded. The same cannot be said for a recent high flyer, Acme Packets (APKT), which unexpectedly saw its profits tumble 25%. APKT was down 16% at last check.

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 02:06 PM #283

    Market Chatter Continued

    INDIVIDUAL STOCK TRADES:

    I’d simply lighten the load before this weekend. The Bowley Trend says the odds of downside action next week is significant. But history doesn’t play out every year or every time the way we’d expect. This is just one indicator. Play it slow and easy and make sure you’re still in the game down the road when the market becomes more predictable and less volatile.

    SUMMARY:

    Listen, earnings are good, not great. But the market isn’t rising so much because of great earnings. The market is looking ahead as it always does. Since early October, the German DAX has run up 800 points, or close to 16%. The London Financial Times Index ($FTSE) has risen about 14%. Our market here in the U.S. is being led higher by the belief that this weekend’s EU summit will provide solutions on how to approach the sovereign debt issues. These problems are not going away easily. But the hopes are that Europe will get more aggressive with dealing with its debt crisis. That’s the assumption being built into stock prices currently.

    I probably don’t need to tell you that this assumption is quite risky. A number of nations must come together and will try to agree what’s fair for everyone. The ability to strike some sort of accord will be CRITICAL to the market’s continuing rise. Should talks break down this weekend, I would imagine we’ll see a very rough opening on Monday morning across global markets.

    Many technical signs say to BUY right now. History tells us to SELL. Sentiment is growing more complacent, another SELL sign. If I was long heading into the weekend, I’d at least want some sort of insurance against a big gap down in the event that talks break down in Europe over the weekend. That insurance could come in the form of selling covered calls against long positions or possibly buying protective puts on the S&P 500. Either way, understand the risks are high as we close out the week.

         
  • Posted: 21 October 2011 02:26 PM #284

    I am afraid we close @ 390 as max pain expects… too bad I hope 400 would hold.

         
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    Posted: 21 October 2011 02:50 PM #285

    Hamourabi - 21 October 2011 05:26 PM

    I am afraid we close @ 390 as max pain expects… too bad I hope 400 would hold.


    Max Pain was at 385 on Monday.  We should have expected the selloff this week.  I see us below 390 by end of the day.