AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:22 PM #31

    SuperApple - 19 October 2011 02:04 AM

    I’ve some Nov 410-420 spreads. I might cover the short leg on the dip and let the other one rip. OI on monthlies for NOV right now is 400 for puts and 440 for calls. Of course this could change, but even if we close at 420, I’d actually be in profit. Should I buy back short leg on dip or just let the spread be? iPad?

    Mace would say (and I agree) your decision should be based on what YOU think AAPL will do.

    IMHO, you were very smart to go out a month to NOV…you have some wiggle room. 

    Some things to consider… 

    Buying back the short leg of bull call spread works best during an upwave/uptrend.  This particular upwave has been going for a while now…not that it can’t continue (maybe this is sufficient retrace?), but this wave has had a good long run.  Unless I’m day-trading and able to watch for HOD and LOD to time it just right, I wouldn’t risk unhedging right now.

    We could very likely be back at or above 420 by NOV expiration, and because you have a spread, you’ve mitigated time decay.

    Remember, it’s not all-or-nothing…you could possibly sell 1/2 near HOD tomorrow and let the other half run.  (If we gap down, the open might very well be near the LOD.)

    [ Edited: 19 October 2011 12:05 AM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 11:23 PM #32

    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 01:56 AM
    Phoebear611 - 19 October 2011 01:29 AM

    Wow - what is up with you guys?  It is still the best company on earth…how is this SSSOOOO negative? Or negative at ALL!? Geez! I hold and buy more on the dip.

    Shareholders and LEAP holders: stay focused on the Big Picture.

    Short-term underwater option holders, if you post what you’re holding, we can brainstorm some potential damage control…

    I liquidated about 65% of my account with pretty good gains prior to close today.  What I have lets is 1 -  Jan 13 400 Leap, 2 - Jan 13 500 leaps, and some of Jan’12 450s and 520s.  Besides that are a couple of Oct 430s which I can kiss goodbye.  What I need help with is finding the bottom in the next few days, or will it be early tomorrow morning?

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:31 PM #33

    Unique - 19 October 2011 02:28 AM
    omacvi - 19 October 2011 02:07 AM
    JDSoCal - 19 October 2011 01:50 AM
    Phoebear611 - 19 October 2011 01:29 AM

    Wow - what is up with you guys?

    Spoken like a guy without options positions expiring on Friday.

    Sorry JD

    you made me think about something.  Max Pain was 385.  It has stayed at that level for quite some time.  maybe is time to start focusing on that more often for guidance.  No matter how many iPhone and Ipads we think they will sell or how high the market and the stock price is, if max pain is so much lower and we are still just a week away, it is clear those in the know were going to sell the stock and drop it to its knees.  500K shares traded in AH can dictate the rest of the day.

    something was off when I saw how IBM was treated.  We went up so fast from 380 that I was taken back with 426.  We all hoped for 440 but options gave us a guide that WS insiders were expecting a different result.

    Now I would not be surprised if we close around 385 on Friday.  A few folks will make millions of dollars off those puts.

    After skimming through aaplpain.com, it seems to me that a pain range is quite huge and could land for example between 385-4xx this week or let’s say another huge ass range next week. I’m still very unclear about this, anyone with enough experience in this area enlighten me on this max pain theory.

    watch his videos Unique.  he explains it there.  He is intelligent and certainly worth listening to.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 11:33 PM #34

    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 02:22 AM
    SuperApple - 19 October 2011 02:04 AM

    I’ve some Nov 410-420 spreads. I might cover the short leg on the dip and let the other one rip. OI on monthlies for NOV right now is 400 for puts and 440 for calls. Of course this could change, but even if we close at 420, I’d actually be in profit. Should I buy back short leg on dip or just let the spread be? iPad?

    Mace would say (and I agree) your decision should be based on what YOU think AAPL will do.

    IMHO, you were very smart to go out a month to NOV…you have some wiggle room. 

    Some things to consider… 

    Buying back the short leg of bull call spread works best during an upwave/uptrend.  This particular upwave has been going for a while now…not that it can’t continue (maybe this is sufficient retrace?), but this wave has had a good long run.  Unless I’m day-trading and able to watch for HOD and LOD to time it just right, I wouldn’t risk unhedging right now.

    We could very likely be back at or above 420 by NOV expiration, and because you have a spread, you’ve mitigated time decay.

    Remember, it’s not all-or-nothing…you could possibly sell 1/2 near HOD tomorrow and let the other half run.  (If we gap down, the open might very well be the LOD.)

    Thank you. Well I had a bunch of Oct calls, I sold them today for+300%.
    I think I got some time for Nov spreads, OI is pointing towards a a floor of 390ish this week. I’m going to postpone my decision until atleast next week.

    If we fall too below the OI for monthly calls (recalls 355 retest couple week ago), I will buy the short leg back, otherwise let it ride.

    thanks again.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:40 PM #35

    Rupert22 - 19 October 2011 02:13 AM

    Well Love,

    That’s depressing but I am particularly worried about my OCT $390 and $400. Not sure whether to sell them at open or wait. My Nov $365 I can wait a few day to make a decision on. Also hold Jan $390 and Apr $380, but those I can wait on too. I never like to be in less then 3 months but I guess I got carried away by all the enthusiasm. Been doing this too long, lesson learned, again. Still looking at a six figure haircut.

    +1 on abandoning my own strategy and getting carried away.

    Rupert, I’m wondering on your OCT 390 and OCT 400…in the case where you are inclined to wait if it might make sense to place a few short OCT 395s right in the middle for potential hedge in either direction.  Mace knows a lot about butterflies, so I am hoping he’ll pop in here and shed some additional light.

    Timing-wise…I was gabbing with Chas earlier—he pulled the stats from last Oct where we gapped down, went a few point lower, then went up, before coming back down but not as low as the open.  So the LOD was near the open last Oct.

    [ Edited: 19 October 2011 12:06 AM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 18 October 2011 11:46 PM #36

    I’m a buyer, using cash I held in reserve for today’s AH results.  Ridiculous outcome, considering Apple beat GOOG’s earnings report. 

    On the subject of Google, I’m watching a video of “ice cream sammich” OS and the face recognition feature to unlock the phone was an utter failure on stage.  The camera stay locked.  What a hoot.  Maybe lipstick would have done the trick. 
     
    Here’s a youtube video of it:

    http://www.youtube.com/Android

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:47 PM #37

    SuperApple - 19 October 2011 02:33 AM

    Well I had a bunch of Oct calls, I sold them today for +300%.

    WAY TO GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! smile

     

    (I did take some profits yesterday around HOD—thank goodness—but it was soooo hard.  Greed, greed, greed got me!)

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:48 PM #38

    Unique - 19 October 2011 02:33 AM
    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 01:49 AM

    Unique, please post your TA.

    All yours. smile

    No way, Jose!  I don’t forecast! raspberry

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:50 PM #39

    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 02:40 AM
    Rupert22 - 19 October 2011 02:13 AM

    Well Love,

    That’s depressing but I am particularly worried about my OCT $390 and $400. Not sure whether to sell them at open or wait. My Nov $365 I can wait a few day to make a decision on. Also hold Jan $390 and Apr $380, but those I can wait on too. I never like to be in less then 3 months but I guess I got carried away by all the enthusiasm. Been doing this too long, lesson learned, again. Still looking at a six figure haircut.

    +1 on abandoning my own strategy and getting carried away.

    Rupert, I’m wondering on your OCT 390 and OCT 400…in the case where you are inclined to wait if it might make sense to place a few short OCT 395s right in the middle for potential hedge in either direction.  Mace knows a lot about butterflies, so I am hoping he’ll pop in here and shed some additional light.

    Timing-wise…I was gabbing with Chas earlier—he pulled the stats from last Oct where we gapped down, then went up, before coming back down but not as low as the open.  So the LOD was the open last Oct.

    Help me out here not sure what your saying. I think your saying selling 395’s (against my Oct 390’s or buying 395 puts. Also be aware that I have 5 Oct 390 and 11 Oct 400’s so an uneven amount.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:56 PM #40

    Unique - 19 October 2011 02:47 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 19 October 2011 02:34 AM

    Andy Zaky thinks low of day will be at the open.

    I’m not hating on AZ, but his short term predictions are not as great compared his longer term ones. I’m just sayin..

    But he did nail the iphone event drop a few days prior showing past data that we drop almost every launch. He was darn right on that.

    Andy has excellent insights into how AAPL *responds* to x, y, z.

    IMHO, it does make sense that on a day when the stock gaps down 30 points, it doesn’t continue to sell off all day long.  (This isn’t RIMM or NFLX.)  Now what happens after tomorrow…no idea.

    [ Edited: 18 October 2011 11:58 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:57 PM #41

    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 02:47 AM
    SuperApple - 19 October 2011 02:33 AM

    Well I had a bunch of Oct calls, I sold them today for +300%.

    WAY TO GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! smile

     

    (I did take some profits yesterday around HOD—thank goodness—but it was soooo hard.  Greed, greed, greed got me!)

    and I gave up 1/2 of what I made on that run up from 370 to 420’s..  if you factor in that those OCT 435/445’s I bought today are going to expire worthless..  which I am!!!  lol.

    Losing 1/2 of what I made is livable though.  I have done worse! 

    Your right ipad about buying a little more time.  I should of bought NOV’s.  I used a small amount in a small account..  but still.  I still should of at least bought NOV’s.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2011 11:58 PM #42

    Unique - 19 October 2011 02:56 AM
    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 02:40 AM

    Timing-wise…I was gabbing with Chas earlier—he pulled the stats from last Oct where we gapped down, then went up, before coming back down but not as low as the open.  So the LOD was the open last Oct.

    Not exactly right.

    Oct 19, 2010  
    Open 303.40
    High 313.77  
    Low 300.02  
    Close 309.49  
    Volume 44,027,119

    Oct 18, 2010  
    Open 318.47  
    High 319.00  
    Low 314.29  
    Close 318.00  
    Volume 39,444,913

    yep..  I was going to say the same thing.  I had that 303/313/309/300 memorized from last week.

    I can’t hardly remember stuff for school without reading twice but I sure can ‘member me some numbers!!!

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 12:00 AM #43

    Unique - 19 October 2011 02:56 AM
    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 02:40 AM

    Timing-wise…I was gabbing with Chas earlier—he pulled the stats from last Oct where we gapped down, then went up, before coming back down but not as low as the open.  So the LOD was the open last Oct.

    Not exactly right.

    Oct 19, 2010  
    Open 303.40
    High 313.77  
    Low 300.02  
    Close 309.49  
    Volume 44,027,119

    Oct 18, 2010  
    Open 318.47  
    High 319.00  
    Low 314.29  
    Close 318.00  
    Volume 39,444,913

    Whoops!  Thanks, Unique!  Chas did give me the correct numbers.  I botched the retelling…a significant miss on my part! wink

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 12:02 AM #44

    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 02:56 AM
    Unique - 19 October 2011 02:47 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 19 October 2011 02:34 AM

    Andy Zaky thinks low of day will be at the open.

    I’m not hating on AZ, but his short term predictions are not as great compared his longer term ones. I’m just sayin..

    But he did nail the iphone event drop a few days prior showing past data that we drop almost every launch. He was darn right on that.

    Andy has excellent insights into how AAPL *responds* to x, y, z.

    IMHO, it does make sense that on a day when the stock gaps down 30 points, it doesn’t continue to sell off all day long.  (This isn’t RIMM or NFLX.)  Now what happens after tomorrow…no idea.

    hmmm..  I don’t know about that.  I am expecting a little more weakness tomorrow but I want to investigate the numbers more before I purchase any puts for the day (which I am considering).  I just read the transcript (thanks Unique) but I want to look into it further.

    I think an emotional over-reaction is quite possible.  But I want a better understanding of what happened and the consequences that they imply first.

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 12:03 AM #45

    I think for those that have Olmstead, it is a good time to review his chapter on Event Producing Credit Spreads. If this is a one time surprise, we are going to have a nice opportunity here to open some positions that will win without the stock needing to move up. I had left a small amount of powder dry just in case, and thus might be the time to use it.  Not first thing tomorrow, but maybe Thursday.