AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 19 October 2011 12:59 AM #61

    lovemyipad - 19 October 2011 03:25 AM
    Rupert22 - 19 October 2011 02:50 AM

    Help me out here not sure what your saying. I think your saying selling 395’s (against my Oct 390’s or buying 395 puts. Also be aware that I have 5 Oct 390 and 11 Oct 400’s so an uneven amount.

    Rupert, yes—sell to open “some” OCT 395 calls to create bull or bear call spreads—but this is not a recommendation, only something I wanted to throw out there for your consideration for possible hedge, should you decide to hold your OCT long calls and not sell them. 

    It would potentially cap the gains on your 390s should we go up, but offset the loss on your 400s should we go down.

    i don’t really have experience with butterflies, but if you put on that position, you basically want AAPL to end up at expiration at 395.  butterflies are about trying to thread the needle.  now, i think ipad’s strategy with this position (correct me if i’m wrong) involves not necessarily holding until expiration and taking profits in whichever legs go green and then waiting for a swing the other way to profit from the remaining legs.  so the price target doesn’t have to be so fine in that case.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:10 AM #62

    so that earnings release was a surprise.  but with hindsight, it’s not.  Apple warned about it during Q3 conference call and with the seemingly low guidance during that call.  the ‘product transition’ was all the inventory/channel issues with the transition to iphone4s.  they knew this was coming, but everybody (especially analysts) missed it.  nothing is wrong with Apple, AAPL, or iPhone growth.  i believe Andy Zaky has an article coming out about this.

    this sucks for short-term options holders or loaded-up investors without dry powder left.  but it will create yet more money-making opportunities (to recover losses or reach new highs, depending on your situation).  it’s a tough day.  but it seems sentiment on AFB went from +100 to -100 in 5 minutes.  the AAPL story is intact.

    [ Edited: 19 October 2011 01:25 AM by kloot ]      
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:25 AM #63

    I went from +90 to +87.  smile

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    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:32 AM #64

    kloot - 19 October 2011 04:10 AM

    so that earnings release was a surprise.  but with hindsight, it’s not.  Apple warned about it during Q3 conference call and with the seemingly low guidance during that call.  the ‘product transition’ was all the inventory/channel issues with the transition to iphone4s.  they knew this was coming, but everybody (especially analysts) missed it.  nothing is wrong with Apple, AAPL, or iPhone growth.  i believe Andy Zaky has an article coming out about this.

    this sucks for short-term options holders or loaded-up investors without dry powder left.  but it will create yet more money-making opportunities (to recover losses or reach new highs, depending on your situation).  it’s a tough day.  but it seems sentiment on AFB went from +100 to -100 in 5 minutes.  the AAPL story is intact.

    So if we could take last quarter’s warning and caution as a solid indicator of managements belief in the numbers, how do we now take the current guidance ?

    Gotta be consistent.  LOL

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  • Posted: 19 October 2011 01:52 AM #65

    Eric Landstrom - 19 October 2011 03:40 AM

    Along with buying AAPL over $400, don’t buy Bosch dishwashers. They stink to the degree I ripped the new one out and brought it back, asking the sales manager as I did so, if they offered a dishwasher that cleans dishes? I explained that I didn’t care if the lights in the neighborhood dimmed a bit when I turned it on, or if it sounded like a washing machine when running because I just want clean dishes.

    Sigh.

    Love this guy!

    I?ll answer your question about dishwashers with an astute observation from Samurai Apprentice Grizzly, a brother-at-arms in the ancient craft of Appliantology:

    Observation 3. Appliances, like most consumer products, have a sweet spot at which the best long term value can be derived by purchasing items towards the middle of the price scale. Sure don?t see many catastrophically expensive repairs with 600 to 1000 dollar Whirlpool washers. Can?t say the same about Sam?s Club spec GE appliances nor for many uh dem der fancy pants Yourapeen brands.

    Amen.

    And let us conclude this sermon with a quote from the Samurai Scriptures:

    There are no good dishwashers today. They are all gone aside, they are altogether become filthy: there is none that doeth good, no, not one. Yea verily all doth sucketh and fall short of the glory of the Samurai.

    ? Psamurai Psalms 14:3 (Shogun Tanaka Version)

    His recommended dishwasher of the moment is Kitchen Aid but the Hobart motor that formerly resided within has been lost to Energy Star Madness.  Don’t get me going on this topic.  :-x

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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:54 AM #66

    Red Shirted Ensign - 19 October 2011 04:32 AM
    kloot - 19 October 2011 04:10 AM

    so that earnings release was a surprise.  but with hindsight, it’s not.  Apple warned about it during Q3 conference call and with the seemingly low guidance during that call.  the ‘product transition’ was all the inventory/channel issues with the transition to iphone4s.  they knew this was coming, but everybody (especially analysts) missed it.  nothing is wrong with Apple, AAPL, or iPhone growth.  i believe Andy Zaky has an article coming out about this.

    this sucks for short-term options holders or loaded-up investors without dry powder left.  but it will create yet more money-making opportunities (to recover losses or reach new highs, depending on your situation).  it’s a tough day.  but it seems sentiment on AFB went from +100 to -100 in 5 minutes.  the AAPL story is intact.

    So if we could take last quarter’s warning and caution as a solid indicator of managements belief in the numbers, how do we now take the current guidance ?

    Gotta be consistent.  LOL

    absolutely smile  they do know what they’re doing when they issue guidance.  the actual # is always a certain percentage range above the stated guidance.  (if they want to take out that percentage bump one of these quarters, i hope they state it clearly in the CC.) 

    i just saw Andy Zaky had a great point about how wall street’s consensus estimate for Q4 was over 17% above AAPL’s guidance, and if you applied that target to previous quarters (except for Q3, which was out of whack and contributed to today’s problem), they would have ‘missed’ those as well.

    the probem now is figuring out when to start loading back up:
    market sentiment + WS misundstanding + financial media = big ???

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:55 AM #67

    Mav - 19 October 2011 04:25 AM

    I went from +90 to +87.  smile

    nice!  you’re bringing up the avg smile

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 02:01 AM #68

    Thanks, Unique…..

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    Posted: 19 October 2011 02:04 AM #69

    Thank goodness the market is actually moving in a positive direction for the last several days.

    I think if we hold 11K on the dow we should do well.

    It should be noted that when aapl was around 325-345 during April oil was around 105-110.

    Now we are in the high 80’s.  If we can keep it in the low 80’s we should hold aapl in the low 400’s.

    I just wish we had lower prices at the pump.  Oil is still in a bubble mode given overall anemic global economy.

    The fact that we hit a low of 388 in AH but recovered to 395 is a good sign.  We could see 400 tomorrow as well. 

    If we end below 395 I think we will see 388 and lower by end of the week.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 02:44 AM #70

    I got burned a little but I’ll survive.  I call it Red October for a reason.  Pass it on!

    Be VERY nimble these next few weeks.  AAPL and macro factors are sure to mean EXTREME volatility.  Myself, I’ll be looking more at singles and doubles than home runs.  AMZN looking tempting to “short” with put spreads.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 02:48 AM #71

    Apple store down - rumor is new MacBook pros being released.

    Not sure if it will be any help tomorrow - unless it’s more MacBook Air models.

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    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 03:18 AM #72

    BillH - 19 October 2011 04:52 AM
    Eric Landstrom - 19 October 2011 03:40 AM

    Along with buying AAPL over $400, don’t buy Bosch dishwashers. They stink to the degree I ripped the new one out and brought it back, asking the sales manager as I did so, if they offered a dishwasher that cleans dishes? I explained that I didn’t care if the lights in the neighborhood dimmed a bit when I turned it on, or if it sounded like a washing machine when running because I just want clean dishes.

    Sigh.

    Love this guy!

    I?ll answer your question about dishwashers with an astute observation from Samurai Apprentice Grizzly, a brother-at-arms in the ancient craft of Appliantology:

    Observation 3. Appliances, like most consumer products, have a sweet spot at which the best long term value can be derived by purchasing items towards the middle of the price scale. Sure don?t see many catastrophically expensive repairs with 600 to 1000 dollar Whirlpool washers. Can?t say the same about Sam?s Club spec GE appliances nor for many uh dem der fancy pants Yourapeen brands.

    Amen.

    And let us conclude this sermon with a quote from the Samurai Scriptures:

    There are no good dishwashers today. They are all gone aside, they are altogether become filthy: there is none that doeth good, no, not one. Yea verily all doth sucketh and fall short of the glory of the Samurai.

    ? Psamurai Psalms 14:3 (Shogun Tanaka Version)

    His recommended dishwasher of the moment is Kitchen Aid but the Hobart motor that formerly resided within has been lost to Energy Star Madness.  Don’t get me going on this topic.  :-x

    In order to get dishes clean with the Bosch, I’d require to use my dogs as a pre-rinse cycle. Warners suggested that I buy a $5,000 commercial dish washer but admitted the $279.00 Frigidair works just as well. Long story short, I now have the cheapest dishwasher they sell in my upstares kitchen.

    That said for everybody on AFB, my condolences to AAPL longs. Expect a morning sell off Wednesday as leveraged people freak out and capitulate. If AAPL rallies, be afraid of Algos shorting over-the-top because they know there are people who bought AAPL over $400 and will sell if the market dips low enough. Market wise, I need an iPad3 or an iPhone 5 to get interested, which is to say, I need news. Tops of AAPL over the next 18 months is maybe $550 in a reasonable economy (there are so many good deals on quality equities nowadays) and shedloads of MMs like myself look at percentages and risk/rewards ratios and bailed over $400 because we can make over 20% YOY elsewhere with near certainty and lower risk.

    That said, if AAPL dips, I’m a value guy and I’m willing to wade in with multiple legs if justified.

    GLTA, I’ll be sighting in new toys for the rest of the week.

    PS: it takes around three years of day trading to figure out how to avoid listening to hype, hope, and analysts and recognize how MM really trade AAPL. If you backtest, and believe the results, you’ll do alright.

    [ Edited: 19 October 2011 03:25 AM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 03:37 AM #73

    omacvi - 19 October 2011 02:07 AM

    ...
    Max Pain was 385.  It has stayed at that level for quite some time. 
    ...
    Now I would not be surprised if we close around 385 on Friday.  A few folks will make millions of dollars off those puts.

    OI will likely change a lot before expiration because of earnings. That said, max pain is $390, and highest OI range is $390 to $420.

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    Posted: 19 October 2011 03:44 AM #74

    kloot - 19 October 2011 03:56 AM

    ... i disagree - he’s nailed countless short-term moves (and intermediate/long appears to be undisputed here).  chart patterns aren’t about predicting with a crystal ball.  it’s about playing the percentages, like poker.  you recognize when the odds are in your favor, and play when they are so.  you’ll win over time.

    We can agree to disagree.  I don’t trust his price forecasts.  To me, he is just another articulate blogger.

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    Posted: 19 October 2011 03:57 AM #75

    Mav - 19 October 2011 05:44 AM

    I got burned a little but I’ll survive.  I call it Red October for a reason.  Pass it on!

    Despite monitoring AAPL actively for eight years, you still commit these behavioral finance mistakes :evil:.  However, you did learn, otherwise you won’t have set aside 50% :-D, congrats.

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