lesson to independent analysts:  don’t believe your own press

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    Posted: 19 October 2011 04:54 AM #61

    Me too!  I’m a professional photographer.  I wanted a decent camera, so I waited hoping for a new phone introduction in July when I could finally get rid of ATT and go Verizon. But, no new iPhone in July!  Incredible!

    So, I kept the old phone.  The cracked screen had to be replaced because I couldn’t stand it anymore.  I bought a $20 kit from amazon and replaced both the screen and the digitizer.  It was a fairly easy replacement but, it subsequently made the screen extremely sensitive.  And, unfortunately, my camera died, so, no more photos from that iPhone (I could have replaced that easily too).

    That iPhone gave me the last drop of its blood…..and I am thankful!

    I had a friend who went Android too.  But, he also bought an iPad. 

    Growl!!

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 10:51 AM #62

    Come to think of it, one can take another perspective. Apple has given a complete break down of its product line each quarter and its expenses. For the December quarter, it has given a revenue guidance, general margins, and earnings guidance. A linear regression model or even a Support Vector Machine, when fed these data will give out how many iPods, iPhones, Laptops, and iPads that Apple is expecting to sell. It gives a good foundation of Apple’s modeling, albeit conservative. To those figures, one can add a bit of a jitter as the quarter proceeds based on retail data, supply chain inputs, and the macro economics of the quarter.

    Why is it that these analyst predictions have become some voodoo science? I know there is significant enthusiasm for Apple and its stock price. But that does not mean irrational numbers should be bandied about. It does not get independent analysts anywhere when Apple bubble bursts. Being the world’s largest company, one expects that projections on its revenues should be responsibly done. Apple is not a speculative stock. It has real products. Its brand and cool factor has a premium in the market place and there is no reason to hype its stock price beyond the brand management and value basis of that brand development. Brand development in commodity electronic hardware, like a phone or a tablet, is pretty hard because of the obsolescence factor. Ultimately, the use value of a product should hold its ground. That is the material basis for the economics of Apple.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 11:18 AM #63

    serious - 19 October 2011 01:51 PM

    Why is it that these analyst predictions have become some voodoo science? I know there is significant enthusiasm for Apple and its stock price. But that does not mean irrational numbers should be bandied about.

    Interesting. There is one thing that the IAs (and even the institutional analysts) completely ignore in the phone market: competitive pressure. It’s as if they believe there is an iPhone market and then there is everything else that has no effect on it because iPhone Rulz and the others are the Suckz, or something like that. It’s a general point I’ve been making here for awhile, and of course, getting called names, and the occasional death threat from Unique, posts deleted by mods, topics moved because Intruder thinks he is a mind reader, etc.

    I consider the IAs complete miss on phones vindication. Somewhere on here and on TMO in September, I posted some numbers analysis derived from comScore data which showed that iPhone numbers were trending disappointingly, while Android handsets were accounting for more than 60% of purchases. A shame that RonMacGuy gave up tracking my posts for his “Bosco truth detector”, because it seems that I was actually spot on, and that the trend was only accelerating with the aging iPhone 4.

    Oh well…

    [ Edited: 19 October 2011 11:20 AM by Bosco (Brad Hutchings) ]      
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 11:37 AM #64

    I found a link to my analysis with comScore numbers, which I posted in the beginning of September. BTW, the edit date on all my posts shows last week because I adjusted my screen name in the wake of a death threat on this board.

    Here it is reprinted, below. It is the best representation of my argument that Apple is simply losing the phone market to competition, and was already losing big in Q2 after the introduction of the Verizon Unicorn.

    -Brad

    ———————————-
    So, from that report. we have 78.5 million smart phone users in June, up 8% since March. This gives us 72.7 million March, an increase of 5.81 million.

    Android had 34.7% installed base in March, or 25.22 million phones.
    Android had 40.1% installed base in June, or 31.47 million phones, an increase of 6.25 million phones, actually more than the installed base grew.

    Apple had 25.5% installed base in March, 18.54 million phones.
    Apple had 26.6% installed base in June, 20.88 million phones, an increase of 2.34 million.

    Now, this is where you have to apply some reasoning. Call Apple stable at 25%. This is not an affront to the fanboys, just a conservative use of the Apple numbers. Apple, in maintaining 25% share, sold 2.34 million phones. So you can conclude that 100% share is about 9.2 million phones.

    That is, 9.2 million new smart phones were sold. The market size gain of 5.81 million reflects some previous smart phone owners getting new smart phones. Android?s share of the 9.2 million sales would then be 68%.

    Now look, this is not a result any of you want, so please, if you?re going to dispute it, please take the time to thoughtfully work through the math and the reasoning.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 11:42 AM #65

    Well, adamthompson, you are the most disingenuous jerk on this board. My favorite charity still awaits the share of AAPL you agreed to give me, and which I asked you to donate to them.

    Please, continue to call me stupid all you want. It looks like I’m the guy that actually put his name to numbers showing iPhone decline relative to competition (see above), and I don’t lie about doing this as a hobby. Well, and as book research. Consider me influenced by the likes of Nassim Taleb and Michael Lewis, who have made careers documenting the folly of dart tossers.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 11:49 AM #66

    dont feed the trolls

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 11:59 AM #67

    Adam - you clearly are a smart guy, so why can you not see the point of Bosco’s posts?  They are meant to provoke and annoy, and they are clearly working in your case. Put him on ignore.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 12:05 PM #68

    omacvi - 19 October 2011 02:49 PM

    dont feed the trolls


    This is a problem people, why do you guys interact with him? He is making an accusation of a death threat which I can assure you was not made by Unique. I was the one who called DT to inform him of the editing of Uniques post by Bosco. Bosco edited one of Uniques post to make a threat to himself, I just don’t get why others were not speaking up about this. All of those post were deleted instead of addressing the problem. The editing of Uniques post in the manner it was should have been automatic expulsion, instead it was swept away. He is trying his best to tear down the AFB, along with others.

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    Posted: 19 October 2011 12:15 PM #69

    mbeauch - 19 October 2011 03:05 PM

    This is a problem people, why do you guys interact with him? He is making an accusation of a death threat which I can assure you was not made by Unique. I was the one who called DT to inform him of the editing of Uniques post by Bosco. Bosco edited one of Uniques post to make a threat to himself, I just don’t get why others were not speaking up about this. All of those post were deleted instead of addressing the problem. The editing of Uniques post in the manner it was should have been automatic expulsion, instead it was swept away. He is trying his best to tear down the AFB, along with others.

    Here you go, douche nozzle. Straight from my email, Unique’s original post, where he proposes to deal with me by hiring a hitman. And BTW, I am the one who deleted my posts from that topic, after receiving a death threat and seeing that forum mods weren’t going to address it.
    ———————

    Someone just posted a reply to:
    “FACT: AAPL down $6 so far during keynote.” - The Mac Observer Forums
    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewreply/589607/

    Eric Landstrom - 04 October 2011 06:33 PM

    -
    (Brad Hutchings)" date="1317767189">

    Text messages spoken through
    bluetooth. I’ve had this on Android for more than a year. And he hasn’t
    shown anything with the conversational stuff that the Voice Actions
    (infinty) app (from a third party dev) available from Android Market
    doesn’t do. The real question is whether it feels like a novelty or is
    everyday usable. Or maybe where on the continuum that is. I’d say the Voice
    Actions (infinity) app is at about 30% on the continuum and improving with a
    trajectory toward 60%.

    Siri stuff isn’t going to change the game, but it will focus the
    conversation. The guys behind the Voice Actions (infinity) are going to be a
    very hot commodity in Android circles.</blockquote>

    I bet I made more money shorting while typing on AFB than you did just
    typing on AFB, Brad.</blockquote>

    +1

    I know we have freedom of speech, but can I hire a hitman?

    This guy really gloats, evil bastard.


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    [ Edited: 19 October 2011 12:18 PM by Bosco (Brad Hutchings) ]      
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 12:17 PM #70

    mbeauch - 19 October 2011 03:05 PM

    This is a problem people, why do you guys interact with him? He is making an accusation of a death threat which I can assure you was not made by Unique. I was the one who called DT to inform him of the editing of Uniques post by Bosco. Bosco edited one of Uniques post to make a threat to himself, I just don’t get why others were not speaking up about this. All of those post were deleted instead of addressing the problem. The editing of Uniques post in the manner it was should have been automatic expulsion, instead it was swept away. He is trying his best to tear down the AFB, along with others.

    I never saw any of this, but wow.  There seems to be a special tolerance with the admin’s when it comes to Bosco.  I think the feeling is that we should not be shutting down different points of view.  I think it is going to far, when there are free passes given out for this kind of behaviour.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 12:25 PM #71

    Brad,

    Amazing how you assumed that I moved any of your posts just because I questioned your motivations for making them. I don’t touch posts in the AFB. I leave that to the mods who are active there.

    Now who is the “mind reader”?

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    Posted: 19 October 2011 12:27 PM #72

    Hey DT, Intruder, etc.

    This is what your AFB is. Death threats, personal assaults, etc. Real classy. This is why you don’t get serious input that would temper your sunshine pumping.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 12:32 PM #73

    @Intruder: You sure took a lot of interest in the process by which I revealed my thoughts in a recently moved post, as if defending the decision to move it and questioning my intentions. I mistakenly assumed you were claiming responsibility. My bad.

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 01:15 PM #74

    serious - 19 October 2011 01:20 AM

    That they released an iCloud, iOS 5 with Siri in October may be the issue. They demoed iOS 5 in April and the street expected a platform supporting the same in July. Synchronized release of software and the hardware in a timely manner is an execution issue. If they had demoed iOS 5 in July and said that it will be release in Fall it would have made a lot of sense.

    The slack of three did them in. Because Apple has a way of maintaining its revenue momentum, investor expectations were raised correctly.

    There is a mismatch between investor expectations, the analyst gyrations (including the independent ones) and the Apple management. Ultimately, it is the product sells and the product has to be produced. So execution is the key.

    And the key to execution in this case was that a principal in all three developmental efforts became incapacitated and died.  It’s quite understandable that development would falter with SJ taking medical leave and being less and less able to contribute, and others having to pick up where he left off that schedules slipped.  Even if SJ’s contributions were from a high, decision making level, it takes time to adjust to the loss of a key player.  In short, the CEO won’t be dying every quarter.  Let’s see how Apple does going forward before we decide it’s doomed.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:25 PM #75

    While I think this thread is generally a trolling attempt, I will say that one of the reasons I don’t participate in the AFB analyst estimates is I just think there is too much unknown that can’t possibly be known, if you aren’t an Apple executive. I assumed there were metrics (supply chain analysis, Web traffic, etc) that could be employed, but I didn’t really have the time to commit to learning all of that, and thus didn’t feel qualified to make estimates.

    Now I’m starting to believe this is all unknowable and it comes down to WABG (Wild-Assed-Best-Guestimate).

    I now return you to your regularly-scheduled trolling.

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