lesson to independent analysts:  don’t believe your own press

  • Posted: 19 October 2011 01:28 PM #76

    Brad Hutchings (Bosco) - 19 October 2011 02:42 PM

    Well, adamthompson, you are the most disingenuous jerk on this board. My favorite charity still awaits the share of AAPL you agreed to give me, and which I asked you to donate to them.

    Please, continue to call me stupid all you want. It looks like I’m the guy that actually put his name to numbers showing iPhone decline relative to competition (see above), and I don’t lie about doing this as a hobby. Well, and as book research. Consider me influenced by the likes of Nassim Taleb and Michael Lewis, who have made careers documenting the folly of dart tossers.

    The broken clock crowing about being right twice a day.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:30 PM #77

    sorry, JD, asking why the Independent Analyst community got it so wrong is NOT trolling.

    Signature

    One trillion or bust

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 01:31 PM #78

    mbeauch - 19 October 2011 03:05 PM
    omacvi - 19 October 2011 02:49 PM

    dont feed the trolls


    This is a problem people, why do you guys interact with him? He is making an accusation of a death threat which I can assure you was not made by Unique. I was the one who called DT to inform him of the editing of Uniques post by Bosco. Bosco edited one of Uniques post to make a threat to himself, I just don’t get why others were not speaking up about this. All of those post were deleted instead of addressing the problem. The editing of Uniques post in the manner it was should have been automatic expulsion, instead it was swept away. He is trying his best to tear down the AFB, along with others.

    Editing another’s post in order to misrepresent his position is a capital offense where I come from, meriting a permanent ban.

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 01:37 PM #79

    Brad Hutchings (Bosco) - 19 October 2011 03:27 PM

    Hey DT, Intruder, etc.

    This is what your AFB is. Death threats, personal assaults, etc. Real classy. This is why you don’t get serious input that would temper your sunshine pumping.

    This and your subsequent post would get you IP banned from my forums.

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 01:39 PM #80

    Seen as an incredible technology development story, Apples march is only muddied by these quarterly dog and pony shows that consume normally thoughtful people. It is after all a continuing story .....


    Pity that growth has slowed to 50 percent.

    Do not feed the trolls, they like it.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:44 PM #81

    Thanks for putting it all in perspective, Dan.

    It’s the long-term trend that matters, and that trend still appears to be (way) up.

    Wish I could just forget this stock and its price and this board for five years….

    Signature

    One trillion or bust

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:49 PM #82

    Zeke - 19 October 2011 04:31 PM

    Editing another’s post in order to misrepresent his position is a capital offense where I come from, meriting a permanent ban.

    The actual evidence that Unique made a death threat is quoted above. I wonder why the members of the AFB not only tolerate death threats, but cover their eyes when the evidence is presented.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:51 PM #83

    Zeke - 19 October 2011 04:31 PM

    Editing another’s post in order to misrepresent his position is a capital offense where I come from, meriting a permanent ban.


    My thoughts exactly. I do find it funny that he posts Eric’s name and tries to associate it with Unique like nobody is going to notice. Lets not forget the name calling to me just then, lol. You know you hit a nerve by the response. LOL

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 01:54 PM #84

    Why Zeke? Because I called you all out on sunshine pumping? Didn’t JDSoCal just make the same assessment above in a more veiled way?

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 02:14 PM #85

    mbeauch - 19 October 2011 04:51 PM

    My thoughts exactly. I do find it funny that he posts Eric’s name and tries to associate it with Unique like nobody is going to notice.

    Yep. mbeauch is stuck on stupid. Cannot parse a clearly delineated pasting of a reply email notification from this forum.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 02:53 PM #86

    A chill pill would do the AFB some good this week.  Can we dial the rhetoric down a bit.

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 03:05 PM #87

    There is an ignore function at the Your Control Panel button above. Some commentary and posters devalue the experience this forum provides. I like to take on the misinformed and I get my share of corrections, but the exchange should have a purpose, some value.

    The ignore feature is for those posters who offer neither purpose or value.

    Do your part for a better forum.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 04:32 PM #88

    Gregg Thurman - 19 October 2011 01:44 AM

    ...Do you love flames?
    I don?t my dear
    I hoped they would stop when we stopped but
    No dice I fear
    Where are the trolls?
    Quick, send in the trolls?
    There ought to be trolls
    Don?t bother ... they?re already here

    Bravo, Gregg!

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 09:41 PM #89

    cranium - 19 October 2011 02:31 AM
    ChasMac77 - 19 October 2011 12:32 AM

    Let’s not forget that last quarter iPhone numbers were better than expected because of new carriers. They didn’t add ANY new carriers this quarter in order to help manage supplies of the 4S. There’s no way anyone outside of Apple would know that. Lesson learned, I was badly off thanks to the iPhone numbers and will be keeping my numbers to myself from now on (unless Mav asks me grin). Lesson learned.

    Hi Chas,

    I’m gonna challenge ourselves a bit here. There really isn’t much we actually KNOW, but we do intelligently speculate based on our watching of trends and knowledge of Apple and it’s product cycles, as well as the industry as a whole.

    It does make sense that Apple would be adding very few (if any) carriers this quarter. Last quarter’s number were definitely boosted by the new carrier additions, and it really does make sense that the quarter before a new iPhone release that carriers would tend to wait to receive the latest version before announcing an initial iPhone launch.

    I joined the group publishing their numbers and putting their names out in public beside them. Each of them, should be congratulated for doing so. Okay, the record was blemished, but unbeaten records are rare and I truly expect the independents to be a bit more conservative go forward and to beat the Wall Street gang handily next quarter.

    Do we suffer from ‘group think’. I’d conclude that is a weakness of which we need to be wary, In fact I do think it’s tough to offer a downside opinion at times because it’s quite possible to get jumped on so quickly that you might think keeping it to yourself would be easier. Apple’s results also have a distinct tendency to make a downside prediction look awfully foolish at results time. I’d like to suggest we have a ‘What could go wrong’ thread each quarter. I like to keep a ‘upside/downside’ list associated with any major holding I have and it’s always useful to think about pictures that may not be perfectly rosy.

    I am willing to stand behind my numbers and say I got this quarter wrong. I especially blew the iPad numbers in a big way. Getting supply in line with demand was not enough in retrospect. I will take some credit for being worried about iPhone numbers (but not so worried to get them correct). I do kick myself for revising them upward a couple of times when I felt ‘too out of place’, but hindsight is 20/20. I wrote the following as part of a response to DT’s insightful The Apple Analyst Sandbag Factor earlier today:

    There is a wide variance in expectation for the iPhone to iPad ratio this quarter. Some see lower iPhone sales than others based on the fact that Apple could be drawing down inventory of the iPhone 4 to drain the channel as well as make an earlier switchover to production of the iPhone 4S. This could be an attempt to ease the magnitude of the tradition shortage in new product that has left customers waiting weeks to get a new device in past years. While this possibility leads to more muted iPhone estimates this quarter, this would also mean iPhone 4S numbers that are beyond expectation next quarter as Apple might actually keep a hot product less supply constrained than has traditionally been the case.

    Other factors here include YOY growth rates needing to be adjusted by the fact that 2010 CQ3 included the iPhone 4 will 2011 CQ3 didn’t have a new phone. Customer purchase deferral as well as potential for fewer new carriers and countries in CQ3 could be factors here as well.

    Concerns were not unrealistic , but we need to ensure we grant enough space for those venting legitimate downside ideas. I became especially worried about the stock with the great run into earnings when it seemed even a group of the Wall Street analysts had iPhone numbers above mine. 

    My biggest concern tonight are those who may have been too aggressive playing close dated out-of-the-money options into earnings. There have been a couple of times when new investors came to AFB asking about this “easy method” to immediate riches.  I worry that for the few that asked and heard our warnings,  there are too many others that played too aggressively and are now in great pain. For any of those folks, please hang in there and join the discussion. There are many sympathetic friends here.

    While I’m not sure if we’re yet at the point where the share price has bottomed (downgrades and panicky investors may still be ahead), I do still believe the fundamental picture has not changed. As I said above, the potential (now reality) for a shortfall in Q4 iPhone sales is something I do see pulling back the elastic and powering upside to Q1 sales. The 37 billion dollar guidance, extra week or not, leads me to think we will leap over the 30 billion dollar quarter straight to the 40 billion dollar quarter. However, let’s get there while still having challenging discussions about future margin concerns, potential sales lost to the Kindle Fire, the always updating Android roster of phones, or whatever potential threat exists to our expectations.


    Very well said.  Thank you!

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2011 09:46 PM #90

    danthemason - 19 October 2011 06:05 PM

    There is an ignore function at the Your Control Panel button above. Some commentary and posters devalue the experience this forum provides. I like to take on the misinformed and I get my share of corrections, but the exchange should have a purpose, some value.

    The ignore feature is for those posters who offer neither purpose or value.

    Do your part for a better forum.

    done

    that is so cool. you all should try it.  It makes this thread 100%  better.

    On a separate note I want the AFB estimates to continue.  Being off one quarter is not enough to discourage me from getting valuable insight into Apple’s past and future numbers.