Q1 iPhone Sales Estimate

  • Posted: 19 October 2011 09:13 PM #16

    iOSWeekly - 19 October 2011 09:34 PM

    My Estimate: 35 million+

    Contributing fators:

    - iPhone 4s delayed until Q1
    - rapid rollout of iphone 4S to international markets
    - As per TC yesterday: “defferred carrier additions from Q4 to Q1”
    - Continued rapid growth of overall smartphone market
    - no contrained production due to similar form factor of new model
    - iphone 3GS dropped to free on contract
    - iphone 3GS & 4 dropped to cheaper prices for benefit of massive Prepay market worldwide
    - extra week in the Quarter

    Individually those are solid reasons to expect solid iPhone numbers.  Collectively they argue for great iPhone numbers.

    I wouldn’t put any value in the extra week this quarter, because the 4S (iPhone flagship) didn’t start shipping until the 4th week (Oct 14 vs quarter start Sept 25).  We will only get 10 weeks of iPhone 4S sales this quarter.  That could make FQ2/2012 a very interesting quarter.

    Signature

    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2011 09:15 PM #17

    ChicagoBob - 19 October 2011 09:48 PM

    FYI: I’m sticking with my chicken scratch 33M number.

    However, I did a little doodling with those numbers and can see a solid argument that there could be 40M iPhones sold this quarter.  While it is towards the far end of the bell curve, its not as insane as it sounds at first.

    I agree, but after the shellacking I’ve taken this year, I’m going to use my more conservative estimate, and invest accordingly.

    Thanks for the info Bob.

    Signature

    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 October 2011 10:46 PM #18

    With a very aggressive international rollout of 7 countries initially, 22 more countries on Oct. 28th, and a total of 70 countries by the end of the year with 100 carriers, I’m assuming Apple’s is locked and loaded on the production front.  Couple that with Tim Cook’s confident prediction that Apple will set an all time record for iPhones sales in a quarter and say “We’re thrilled with the supply we have”, I’m liking our chances to blow past 30+Million iPhones for the holiday quarter.

    Signature

    Tim Cook: iPad is 91% of all tablet web traffic. I don’t know what these other tablets are doing.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 October 2011 11:20 PM #19

    I’m surprised that we dont hear anything from some of the major app publishers regarding how many iOS app downloads they have over the quarter.

    I think a company like facebook or twitter would likely have a very good idea of total iOS sales - as they can see how many times there very popular app was downloaded in a previous quarter & compare it to the ios device sales in that quarter. Then they can simply apply the same ratio to there current app downloads and have a fairly accurate idea on the number of iOS devices selling…

    Does anyone know of a leading app developer that publishes there download figures?

    Signature

    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
  • Posted: 20 October 2011 12:17 AM #20

    iOSWeekly - 20 October 2011 02:20 AM

    I’m surprised that we dont hear anything from some of the major app publishers regarding how many iOS app downloads they have over the quarter.

    I think a company like facebook or twitter would likely have a very good idea of total iOS sales - as they can see how many times there very popular app was downloaded in a previous quarter & compare it to the ios device sales in that quarter. Then they can simply apply the same ratio to there current app downloads and have a fairly accurate idea on the number of iOS devices selling…

    Does anyone know of a leading app developer that publishes there download figures?

    Good idea, we have got to find a way to put these numbers together.  Clearly the analyst don’t really have a clue.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 October 2011 01:30 PM #21

    Apple: iPhone About to Put Smartphone Market In Headlock, Says Analyst

    Signature

    The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it. The process by which banks create money is so simple the mind is repelled.

         
  • Posted: 21 October 2011 03:04 PM #22

    I see 4 determinant factors
    Last quarter delayed buys,
    SIRI
    The $0 iPhone 3GS
    Depression II or not..

    ( I take the general iPhone positive trend and the gift season as given )

    the general trend would lead to 20M
    I would say +2M for the delayed buys, +4M for SIRI and the 3 GS 4, + 4M for the buying season
    but -4M if depression and european crisis are confirmed.

    For Q1 sales I expect 26M to 30M

    [ Edited: 21 October 2011 03:19 PM by Hamourabi ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 October 2011 03:41 PM #23

    One note in that article which I have noted on the AT&T website is that there are no Iphone 3gs available. Sold out with no expected restocking date, unlike the Iphone 4s. 

    Just how many 3gs’ were available for sale since Octobr 8?  All gone, in any event…

    Free is good…for Apple.

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 21 October 2011 07:46 PM #24

    adamthompson3232 - 21 October 2011 06:35 PM

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/10/21/aapl-42-5m-iphone-units-possible-in-q4-says-ubs/?mod=yahoobarrons

    Maynard’s analysis, based on US/International sales split, is very interesting.  I had overlooked where iPhones were actually being sold.

    As he noted, the rapidity of the rollout will impact that split.  Still….

    Signature

    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 October 2011 08:29 PM #25

    Red Shirted Ensign - 21 October 2011 06:41 PM

    One note in that article which I have noted on the AT&T website is that there are no Iphone 3gs available. Sold out with no expected restocking date, unlike the Iphone 4s. 

    Just how many 3gs’ were available for sale since Octobr 8?  All gone, in any event…

    Free is good…for Apple.

    Note this quote and comment from Gruber….the 3gs is selling like hotcakes for AT&T. In fact, they are sold out…..this is a big win for both Apple and AT&T for Family Plans since Verizon and Sprint don’t have it.

    ____________________

    AT&T Seeing ?Tremendous, Tremendous Demand? for iPhone 3GS ?
    Peter Cohen, quoting AT&T Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega:

    I also mentioned in my notes that we have another device that I think is going to dramatically change those people that are on smartphones and quick messaging devices, the 3GS, which is free with a 2-year contract. We?ve seen a tremendous, tremendous demand for that device even though it?s a generation old. And actually, we?re getting more new subscribers coming on the 3GS on the average than other devices.

    That?s the power of ?free*?, even when the asterisk is a requirement that you sign a two-year contract that costs like $1,500, minimum. Also, worth keeping in mind: the 3GS is an advantage AT&T still has over Verizon and Sprint ? there is no CDMA iPhone 3GS.

    Update: Interesting point from a DF reader on Twitter:

    Wondering how many of those free 3GS?s are the third (teenager!) phone on a family plan. That can be as low as $25/mo.

    I hadn?t really thought about family plans, but that makes sense ? ?free*? is a lot closer to no-asterisk-just-plain-free in that case.

    http://daringfireball.net/

    http://www.loopinsight.com/2011/10/21/att-tremendous-tremendous-demand-for-iphone-3gs/

    [ Edited: 21 October 2011 08:31 PM by Red Shirted Ensign ]

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 21 October 2011 08:46 PM #26

    I’m mildly amused by the strength of iPhones sales forecasting occurring around WS today.  The market is currently punishing AAPL because analysts (AFBrs included) so badly missed FQ4 results.  Yet here they (I) all are, justifying numbers about double FQ4 results.  Are we setting ourselves up for another fall?

    Signature

    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 21 October 2011 09:11 PM #27

    adamthompson3232 - 21 October 2011 11:56 PM
    Gregg Thurman - 21 October 2011 11:46 PM

    I’m mildly amused by the strength of iPhones sales forecasting occurring around WS today.  The market is currently punishing AAPL because analysts (AFBrs included) so badly missed FQ4 results.  Yet here they (I) all are, justifying numbers about double FQ4 results.  Are we setting ourselves up for another fall?

    When you’re heading down, it becomes harder to fall. If anything I think the setup is for a big upside move.

    I still will not play earnings like I did Q4.  Foolish on my part to go into it unhedged with some short(er) term options (Nov calls).

    I have learned time and hedges are a valuable elements in this game.  Lesson learned never to be forgotten.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 21 October 2011 09:26 PM #28

    Overreaction in my book. If I recall clearly? Apple closed l after earnings much lower only on three occasions in the last four years.  Those times were in January 2008 when the MacBook air came out. And I think a couple years ago during October we had a selloff other than that we actually went up every earnings release and I believe we will do so again in January.

         
  • Posted: 21 October 2011 09:43 PM #29

    Jcaron - 22 October 2011 12:11 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 21 October 2011 11:56 PM
    Gregg Thurman - 21 October 2011 11:46 PM

    I’m mildly amused by the strength of iPhones sales forecasting occurring around WS today.  The market is currently punishing AAPL because analysts (AFBrs included) so badly missed FQ4 results.  Yet here they (I) all are, justifying numbers about double FQ4 results.  Are we setting ourselves up for another fall?

    When you’re heading down, it becomes harder to fall. If anything I think the setup is for a big upside move.

    I still will not play earnings like I did Q4.  Foolish on my part to go into it unhedged with some short(er) term options (Nov calls).

    I have learned time and hedges are a valuable elements in this game.  Lesson learned never to be forgotten.

    Back in 2007 I used to make aggressive investments two or three quarters out, and they would be far OTM,.  Then I would buy enough at or near the money for the same month, sufficient that it would replace my more aggressive play, should it not pan out.  If the aggressive investment panned out, my insurance investment made that month better.

    During 2008 that strategy just cost me more, so I stopped, and haven’t used it since.  I think had I been using it this year I would have depleted my investment account that much faster.  This year is absolutely nuts.

    Bulls make money in a bull market.
    Bears make money in a bear market.
    And some make money in a sideways market.

    This year, Apple has avoided all three.

    Signature

    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 21 October 2011 10:58 PM #30

    It is nuts.  Our Apple accounts are still up ~ 10%.  Accepting greater volatility is part of the game for me.  I don’t always like it, but it has worked out all right so far since Jan 2009.