AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 30 October 2011 04:02 PM

    Will the market begin Monday trading on a positive note?

    [ Edited: 04 November 2011 07:31 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 04:24 PM #1

    Top call OI (410) is double top put (400), so I am guessing we don’t go up much if at all. Above 405/below 410 would do the most damage. Of course, these are old, stale OI numbers, and they change, which is why the predictions have to change, and why I don’t bet iPhones on exact closings.

    I “bet” by selling outside the pain range.

    BTW, Travis has a great, must-see video recounting last week’s blatant manipulation by people who should be killed pain action.

    The take-away is the paradox that, the more bullish people buy calls, the more it hurts the stock price. But bullish call buyers just keep hitting that bar like a rat trying to get another cocaine pellet hoping to be the next Snipus.

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    Posted: 30 October 2011 04:57 PM #3

    JDSoCal - 30 October 2011 07:24 PM

    BTW, Travis has a great, must-see video recounting last week’s blatant manipulation by people who should be killed pain action.

    Interesting video. I might start to chart these options and see how that ties up with my other studies. I’m willing to bet that more often than not, these popular strikes correspond to features already on my charts. It’s all very knowing various bands and support/resistance levels are being observed, but it’s nice to know what the mechanism is behind it.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 05:02 PM #4

    kevinhernandez - 30 October 2011 07:39 PM

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/opinion/mona-simpsons-eulogy-for-steve-jobs.html?_r=4&pagewanted=all

    Beautiful.

    [ Edited: 30 October 2011 05:06 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 05:09 PM #5

    I can see an October window-dressing-like rally, maybe.  The “end of the month” effect.

    After that, it feels like the market is topping out a bit.  My main objective is to buy some AAPL bull call spreads at a better price, so I’m just making “side bets” here and there until I get a better feel for the market’s direction.  High volatility ahead:  the Euro issues are far from over, and the budget supercommittee/supposed threat of more credit downgrades based on the extent of the committee’s/Congress’s intransigence promise to make this a wild ride.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 30 October 2011 05:11 PM #6

    Beautiful…brought tears to my eyes.  Thank you for pointing it out..read the paper this morning and somehow missed it.  Beautiful.

    Mav - 30 October 2011 08:02 PM
    kevinhernandez - 30 October 2011 07:39 PM

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/opinion/mona-simpsons-eulogy-for-steve-jobs.html?_r=4&pagewanted=all

    Beautiful.

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 05:18 PM #7

    wheeles - 30 October 2011 07:57 PM
    JDSoCal - 30 October 2011 07:24 PM

    BTW, Travis has a great, must-see video recounting last week’s blatant manipulation by people who should be killed pain action.

    Interesting video. I might start to chart these options and see how that ties up with my other studies. I’m willing to bet that more often than not, these popular strikes correspond to features already on my charts. It’s all very knowing various bands and support/resistance levels are being observed, but it’s nice to know what the mechanism is behind it.

    I’ve made my feelings about TA here well-known, but I do believe it has some value - for the expert practitioner who does nothing else but day trade. But when I see people here (not you) ramble on about TA when we are 24 hours from OE or a major Apple news event, and not even reference said events, it really does get exasperating.

    Option pain range (and I avoid the term “max pain” due to confusion of people who think I am referring to an exact figure) can be very useful for someone who doesn’t have the time, knowledge, or inclination to be a TA-obsessed day trader. While it might show some of the same things, I think TA is really the long way around the barn here.

    Kind of reminds me of this video:

    Stay away from the cans!

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 05:37 PM #8

    There’s a good deal of LOL in this article:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/113716/stop-trying-beat-market-cnnmoney

    Maybe the link should’ve continued, “-and-just-buy-AAPL-and-wait-a-couple-years”.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 05:52 PM #9

    JDSoCal - 30 October 2011 08:18 PM

    I’ve made my feelings about TA here well-known

    While what I do to fathom out what AAPL is going to do could be classed as TA, I think it’s quite removed from simply looking for head and shoulders and Gartley patterns etc. Over the years I’ve come to understand certain “behaviours” (I am loathe to say “rules”) for the way AAPL moves. As I’ve said previously, I identify probable support levels in a longer term uptrend, and resistance levels in a longer term downtrend. I follow trend lines and the flow of money. These are all dynamic in nature.

    I believe that all of those things are influenced by options, and visa versa. After all, what do people use in deciding where to buy or sell options? I would hazard a guess that they look at bands, moving averages, and other indicators of support and resistance such as pivots of varying types and DeMark support and resistance levels etc. In other words, the positioning of options and the positioning of bands, MAs etc. are intertwined and feed off each other.

    In essence we are looking at the same thing but from different perspectives.

    I am willing to admit that I have found determining where a trend will end is particularly difficult. If I had a buck for every time someone said X was overbought or oversold, yet seemingly ignored that fact, then I would have retired a long time ago.

    I had settled on looking for divergences in things like MACD and RSI, extremes of MoneyFlowIndex, and good old-fashioned trend line breaks. My hope is that by adopting the “pain range” approach that’ll give me an additional insight into where those boundaries are.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 05:56 PM #10

    wheeles - 30 October 2011 07:57 PM
    JDSoCal - 30 October 2011 07:24 PM

    BTW, Travis has a great, must-see video recounting last week’s blatant manipulation by people who should be killed pain action.

    Interesting video. I might start to chart these options and see how that ties up with my other studies. I’m willing to bet that more often than not, these popular strikes correspond to features already on my charts. It’s all very knowing various bands and support/resistance levels are being observed, but it’s nice to know what the mechanism is behind it.

    WOW!!!  Nice find!

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 06:03 PM #11

    kevinhernandez - 30 October 2011 07:39 PM

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/opinion/mona-simpsons-eulogy-for-steve-jobs.html?_r=4&pagewanted=all

    Holy crap, read the last part 4 times and choked up every time! That was incredible!

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 06:06 PM #12

    wheeles - 30 October 2011 08:52 PM
    JDSoCal - 30 October 2011 08:18 PM

    I’ve made my feelings about TA here well-known

    While what I do to fathom out what AAPL is going to do could be classed as TA, I think it’s quite removed from simply looking for head and shoulders and Gartley patterns etc. Over the years I’ve come to understand certain “behaviours” (I am loathe to say “rules”) for the way AAPL moves. As I’ve said previously, I identify probable support levels in a longer term uptrend, and resistance levels in a longer term downtrend. I follow trend lines and the flow of money. These are all dynamic in nature.

    I believe that all of those things are influenced by options, and visa versa. After all, what do people use in deciding where to buy or sell options? I would hazard a guess that they look at bands, moving averages, and other indicators of support and resistance such as pivots of varying types and DeMark support and resistance levels etc. In other words, the positioning of options and the positioning of bands, MAs etc. are intertwined and feed off each other.

    In essence we are looking at the same thing but from different perspectives.

    I am willing to admit that I have found determining where a trend will end is particularly difficult. If I had a buck for every time someone said X was overbought or oversold, yet seemingly ignored that fact, then I would have retired a long time ago.

    I had settled on looking for divergences in things like MACD and RSI, extremes of MoneyFlowIndex, and good old-fashioned trend line breaks. My hope is that by adopting the “pain range” approach that’ll give me an additional insight into where those boundaries are.

    wheeles, since you’ve got a technical perspective on things, what’s your reading of the charts as far as next week/month goes?

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 30 October 2011 06:24 PM #13

    My prediction is that markets will continue up this week and AAPL will ride with it or maybe a little above it.  Europe not settled but a path forward has been generally agreed on and includes Greek relief.  GDP was positive and unemployment is not getting worse.  You are free to take this as investment advice, but be aware that I could be wrong and if you lose money because of it, so will I.  I’m long AAPL, S, QCOM, CAT, HON and TNA calls and TNA puts.

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 07:01 PM #14

    There are three new iphone4s ads running today.  Each is excellent.

    http://9to5mac.com/2011/10/30/apple-airs-impressive-new-iphone-4s-icloud-siri-and-camera-tv-ads/

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 07:04 PM #15

    wheeles - 30 October 2011 08:52 PM
    JDSoCal - 30 October 2011 08:18 PM

    I’ve made my feelings about TA here well-known

    In essence we are looking at the same thing but from different perspectives.

    Seven blind men and the elephant.

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