AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 30 October 2011 08:33 PM #16

    kevinhernandez - 30 October 2011 07:39 PM

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/opinion/mona-simpsons-eulogy-for-steve-jobs.html?_r=4&pagewanted=all

    So beautiful.  Thank you for posting this link, Kevin.

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 08:40 PM #17

    Red Shirted Ensign - 30 October 2011 10:01 PM

    There are three new iphone4s ads running today.  Each is excellent.

    http://9to5mac.com/2011/10/30/apple-airs-impressive-new-iphone-4s-icloud-siri-and-camera-tv-ads/

    Quality Apple ad.  An evolving media message (wherefore art thou, silhouettes?), but the effectiveness is still there…getting better all the time, really, now that you have a device that’s so easy to demo.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 08:56 PM #18

    Mav - 30 October 2011 09:06 PM

    wheeles, since you’ve got a technical perspective on things, what’s your reading of the charts as far as next week/month goes?

    Right now I’m only looking ahead for the next few days. The reason I say that is I do think from a monthly perspective AAPL could be topping out for the time being. That’s not to say AAPL won’t go up much more, but things could become a little heavy going in the coming weeks.

    MoneyFlowIndex on the monthly chart has hit overbought levels. The last time that happened was in January 2010. While that does not mean an immediate pullback, it’s worth being aware of. It still took until May 2010 for the flash crash to arrive.

    The difference between then and now is that then the monthly bars were closing above the acceleration band, now they are below that same band, so there’s a lot more overhead resistance. Without a more significant pullback, I don’t see AAPL managing to push past that monthly upper Bollinger easily. That could mean a number of things from a pullback of $50-100 to a prolonged sideways grind over several months. This is why I am trying not to look too far ahead and concentrating more on 1H and 4H charts.

    More immediately, I still believe AAPL has got another move up coming. While not absolutely sure we go up tomorrow, the initial first few PM trades will give a far better idea as the 1H MACD is about to make a bullish cross, but hasn’t just yet. I thought AAPL would climb on Friday had it not been for those weekly options.

    There are a few overhead obstacles, which could blunt a move up. Perhaps the most significant couple for me are the upper Bollinger on the 4H, which is currently at 409.53, but that’ll move. The other is a DeMark resistance line on the daily chart at 409.82. AAPL has already made it over that line once before in a gap up (and then a gap down several days later). That will possibly cap an upside move tomorrow. Not guaranteed, but it’s there.

    As to likely upside targets beyond that, I am principally looking at two levels: 419-420 and 438-440. Stopping at 419-420 would mean a truncated fifth wave (according to my EW count, which I admit is different to Mace’s), which would be followed by a bigger corrective wave than we’ve seen lately, taking us down to around 370-375. There’s a DeMark support level on the daily chart at 371.90 and a Fib line around 375. There’s also the bottom of a longer term channel around there too.

    Topping out around 438-440 would also see a corrective wave to follow, but right now I couldn’t say where the support for that is likely to be found, but probably higher than the 370s. I have a channel top around 440, so that sort of fits with the 438-440 number. I understand that for the November options 440 is also looking like a number with a certain amount of interest.

    There is a higher possible target at 468, but given the situation on the monthly chart, I don’t have particularly high hopes for that.

    What I would say is that while I have laid out a basic “geography” of what I am seeing on my charts, AAPL could still go down. There are no guarantees in this game. The sudden drop at earnings is still having a “hangover effect” on my charts, which is taking time to work off.

    Another factor to consider is FOMC this week. Last month the disappointment started AAPL on a slide from 422 down to 354. We could ramp in anticipation and then who knows?

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
  • Posted: 30 October 2011 09:12 PM #19

    Hey just an observation/query

    Internet opinion seems to be that inflation does not help stox. Google “inflation effect on stocks”.

    So fed printing money means… ?

         
  • Posted: 30 October 2011 09:45 PM #20

    And why does it matter for afb? Just on the off chance that we double-dip and/or europe implodes. Just curious.

         
  • Posted: 30 October 2011 09:53 PM #21

    PS I am way long aapl

         
  • Posted: 30 October 2011 10:10 PM #22

    PPS And why am i long aapl? Off the top of my head because the PE is ridiculous for a company that is growing 50-100% a year, the iphone 5 is still to come, 2 possible china carriers, apple tv and god knows what else they are working on, etc, etc.

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 10:33 PM #23

    Grey - 31 October 2011 12:12 AM

    Hey just an observation/query

    Internet opinion seems to be that inflation does not help stox. Google “inflation effect on stocks”.

    So fed printing money means… ?

    Printing money = higher stock prices

    Back in the day, inflation meant higher interest rates.  Not the case right now.

         
  • Posted: 30 October 2011 10:45 PM #24

    Lovemyipad ( i do too) - think you are right. Old logic does not apply. Interesting. Thanks for insight.  Sorry, have to go to bed now, Am on london time.

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 11:08 PM #25

    Trick or treat indeed!  Well, I’m jaded enough to suspect a trick (a sucker’s rally before the bottom drops), but objectively, here’s the bullish perspective:

    1) GDP data confirms no double dip;

    2) Fed says QE is back on the table, should the need arise;

    3) Greece is contained, and the potential repeat with Italy and Spain is far enough away to put “fear” on the back burner.

    Which brings us to greed. smile

    4) If SPX breaks 1300, IMHO, we’re likely to see positive feedback loops and momentum increases, meaning: either get on the northbound train (with some judicious hedges) or get the hell out of the way.

    [ Edited: 30 October 2011 11:13 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 11:08 PM #26

    Grey - 31 October 2011 01:10 AM

    PPS And why am i long aapl? Off the top of my head because the PE is ridiculous for a company that is growing 50-100% a year, the iphone 5 is still to come, 2 possible china carriers, apple tv and god knows what else they are working on, etc, etc.

    We got to remember the recent headlines - despite what we here know is a very positive short - medium term outlook for AAPL, the most recent information that wall street & the general public heard about AAPL specific performace is that it missed Analysts expectations last quarter on worse than expected iphone sales.

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 11:13 PM #27

    A few months ago someone on this site (forgive me for forgetting who) recommended this website for an array of stats about Apple, including a list of key support/resistance levels:

    http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?&symbol=AAPL

    Thanks again. I visit this site whenever I’m setting targets for Apple or the few other stocks I trade.

         
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    Posted: 30 October 2011 11:21 PM #28

    P, that was Lion!  He’s great! smile

         
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    Posted: 31 October 2011 12:04 AM #29

    If all goes well this week my cyclical banks will thunder ahead.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 31 October 2011 12:14 AM #30

    A cooling off period (as reflected in early futures numbers) is good for:

    - the markets in general

    - my BIDU/AKAM/AMZN put bets wink

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.