AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 13 November 2011 06:21 PM

    Apple ended the Friday trading session at $384.62. Will the share price recover early in the new week and return to a value above $400 per share?

    [ Edited: 18 November 2011 08:03 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 13 November 2011 07:33 PM #1

    Short term, the broader market’s in an uptrend, while AAPL’s in a downtrend.  Reminds me of Spring.

         
  • Posted: 13 November 2011 08:02 PM #2

    DawnTreader - 13 November 2011 10:21 PM

    Apple ended the Friday trading session at $384.62. Will the share price recover early in the new week and return to a value above $400 per share?

    I think it will.  Whether AAPL holds it is another matter. 

    If the option writers of puts want to keep their premiums, isn’t it more likely to see buying pressure for AAPL on a day when markets are green?  Further, the manipulation last week probably ran its course, but that could be wishful thinking.

         
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    Posted: 13 November 2011 08:21 PM #3

    what was hard to believe was how fast the AAPL bearishness permeated everything, in only 2 days.  on Tuesday everyone seemed ready for the breakout above 410.  wed was Italy day, and AAPL dropped less than the market by over a pctg point.  then we all know the silliness of thu and fri.  for people who think in terms of longer than 5 minutes, opportunities abound.

         
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    Posted: 13 November 2011 08:26 PM #4

    Day after Thanksgiving is the precedental Nov. bull day for Apple following Oct earnings retreat.

    Hang on Snoopy. And get ready to dance.

    I think we should each take responsibility for monitoring one or two of the factors Jason Schwarz says we need to understand Apple, pool our findings and kick the machine’s ass. I guess that’s what we are trying to do already…  I need to get better at this…

    Here are his factors:
    For those who do get Appl, there is no better investment opportunity on Wall Street. If you want to effectively invest in Apple, you need to understand and identify the impact of liquidity, hedge fund action, fundamentals, rumors, market share, trading ranges, weekly options, seasonality and catalyst precedent. At any given time, one of these variables will dictate the short-term action.

    Response to Jim Cramer’s BS:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/307305-jim-cramer-has-reversed-on-apple-because-he-doesn-t-understand-it

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Posted: 13 November 2011 08:49 PM #5

    jjjz - 14 November 2011 12:26 AM

    Response to Jim Cramer’s BS:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/307305-jim-cramer-has-reversed-on-apple-because-he-doesn-t-understand-it

    In the article Jason predicted a buying opportunity within 3 weeks of his earlier Oct. 21 article.  That 3 weeks is up, if there’s any accuracy to his time frame.  If so, $380 was it last Friday.  Can AAPL slip further to his buying targets he wrote about in his most recent article?  Anything is possible, and I’ll be standing ready to pick up more if the opportunity presents itself.

    IMO, this would be a surprising week for AAPL to slip to the lower price points Jason mentioned following last week’s overdone selling and the fact we have OPEX this week.

    Edited to quote the relevant paragraph in the original piece (Oct 21):

    Historically, even if Apple has a great October earnings report, the stock will sell off in the aftermath of the report and form an early November low that turns into a great buying opportunity for a run into the day after Thanksgiving…Black Friday. When does this low usually bottom? In 2010 it happened on November 17th, in 2009 it was November 3rd, in 2008 it was November 21st, in 2007 it was November 13th, and in 2006 it was November 6th. Today?s hedge fund trading activity on a positive market day gives us hope that we will have the opportunity to buy Apple somewhere between $350-$370 over the next three weeks. The average run over the past five years from the November low to Black Friday is 12%.

    [ Edited: 13 November 2011 08:59 PM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 13 November 2011 08:56 PM #6

    jjjz - 14 November 2011 12:26 AM

    Day after Thanksgiving is the precedental Nov. bull day for Apple following Oct earnings retreat.

    Hang on Snoopy. And get ready to dance.

    One more point re: Jason’s article in which he challenges Jim Cramer’s sudden coolness toward Apple.  It presumes Jim’s shift was genuine, born of real concern about Apple.  Rather, it’s more likely Cramer is simply revealing the same guy who practiced manipulation at his hedge fund.

         
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    Posted: 13 November 2011 09:03 PM #7

    Cramer’s full of crap.  I granted him a small exception for AAPL for a time because he was consistent, but he was just playing his circus act game the whole time.

    Not saying he ain’t smart or skilled or enterprising, but he doesn’t “get” AAPL, not unless it suits his purposes.  His semi-reversal on AAPL based on what I guess are technicals is utterly contrived.

    [ Edited: 13 November 2011 09:07 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 13 November 2011 09:04 PM #8

    If you’re not an idiot like me drawn to shorter-term bets like a moth to a flame, you’ll be A-OK on AAPL I think. 

    AAPL $370 is my line in the sand.  Anything lower will not stay there for long absent some truly unexpected stuff.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 13 November 2011 09:12 PM #9

    I can think of more than a few people on this board that this article will really piss off. On so many levels, this just isn’t good or right:

    It’s Legal for Congress to trade for profit on insider information.

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
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    Posted: 13 November 2011 09:20 PM #10

    We hate Congress.

    We love to elect members we hate.

    What’s new.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 13 November 2011 09:21 PM #11

    Mercel, do you have a link to Jason’s article?  Thanks.

         
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    Posted: 13 November 2011 09:37 PM #12

    lovemyipad - 13 November 2011 11:33 PM

    Short term, the broader market’s in an uptrend, while AAPL’s in a downtrend.  Reminds me of Spring.

    The share purchases I made this spring are my best of the year. I started buying too high but still had cash to go all in near the bottom. I also started buying this dip too early, but have reserved most of my cash for an insanely low share price sale or a confirmed uptrend.

    Late this afternoon in the Weekend Edition Red posted a link to Asymco that bears repeating, and reading. The money quotes below come from the comments section.

    Horace - “I think there is significant asymmetry of information with respect to Apple. There are times when the world changes fast enough or far enough that understanding of what is happening lags far behind the actual event.”

    LeCorsaire - “Horace is hinting AAPL is highly under-valued.”

    http://www.asymco.com/2011/11/13/apples-guidance-deficits/

         
  • Posted: 13 November 2011 09:45 PM #13

    alice - 14 November 2011 01:21 AM

    Mercel, do you have a link to Jason’s article?  Thanks.

    It’s in the same link above by Jjjz.

         
  • Posted: 13 November 2011 09:51 PM #14

    Prazan - 14 November 2011 01:37 AM

    Horace - “I think there is significant asymmetry of information with respect to Apple. There are times when the world changes fast enough or far enough that understanding of what is happening lags far behind the actual event.”

     

    I appreciate Horace’s support for Apple, but geez, can we lighten up? 

    “Therefore, since brevity is the soul of wit, and tediousness the limbs and outward flourishes, I will be brief”  William Shakespeare.

    Or,

    “Good things, when short, are twice as good”  Tom Stoppard

         
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    Posted: 13 November 2011 10:18 PM #15

    Well, he called a P/E of 15 for AAPL long before it happened…and went quite a bit below 15.

    Given how right he was (and how wrong I was), I’ll give him some room to be “moody” or a little “verbose” about AAPL’s ridiculous valuation.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.