Memory Lane

  • Avatar

    Posted: 18 November 2011 08:36 PM

    New thread because there are just too many gems in the archives…

    Here’s Spongie:

    omacvi - 06 July 2007 04:06 PM

    today’s trading reminds me of monday.  the stock went down even after the iPhone came out.  Then came Tuesday when news of a sell out came out and 55% profit and the stock went up almost $6. Then came Thursday when talk of 1 million phones sold and the stock went up another $5.

    For today to pass without some serious profit taking is a very good sign.

    We need some big news on Monday.  I still doubt Apple will release numbers until July 25.  When they release them they want them to be as big as possible.

    I bought a few more share to hold for 5 years or more.  I bought and sold 1000 Shares for a nice profit in the first 45 minutes.

    so overall it was a good day.

    I still think this stock will correct itself a little, but it will be difficult to time so my advice is buy and hold, because in 6 months we might see it close to $200.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 18 November 2011 08:38 PM #1

    that is solid gold!

    He was right!  Eventually!

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 18 November 2011 09:49 PM #2

    lovemyipad - 19 November 2011 12:36 AM

    New thread because there are just too many gems in the archives…

    Here’s Spongie:

    omacvi - 06 July 2007 04:06 PM

    today’s trading reminds me of monday.  the stock went down even after the iPhone came out.  Then came Tuesday when news of a sell out came out and 55% profit and the stock went up almost $6. Then came Thursday when talk of 1 million phones sold and the stock went up another $5.

    For today to pass without some serious profit taking is a very good sign.

    We need some big news on Monday.  I still doubt Apple will release numbers until July 25.  When they release them they want them to be as big as possible.

    I bought a few more share to hold for 5 years or more.  I bought and sold 1000 Shares for a nice profit in the first 45 minutes.

    so overall it was a good day.

    I still think this stock will correct itself a little, but it will be difficult to time so my advice is buy and hold, because in 6 months we might see it close to $200.

    Apple closed at $178 on Jan 7 2008; It was $132 on July 6, 2007.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 18 November 2011 10:22 PM #3

    mtdoc - 18 August 2007 02:03 PM

    DT - those are all good fundamental reasons why we should go higher.  They may indeed be strong enough forces to overpower the psychological factors.

    What concerns me is that major psychological damage has been done as evdenced by the nature of these last few weeks. Pure panic and fear after a period of incredible greed.  These extremes need some time to work back to a more reasonable balance IMO.

    The chart of the indexes is broken - so to speak - so if you believe that charts and technicals reflect trader and investor psychology - there are a lot of extreme swings of emotion going on right now.

    This gets back to what I was saying several months ago (and was given a lot of flack by some on AFB for my views smile )

    I don’t like it when stocks or the market just go up parabolically - without healthy pauses and modest, short lived corrections.  Without those the longer term uptrend is susceptable to dramatic corrections and volatility -creating psychological damage that is not easily repaired.

    If it becomes clear that a recession is in the works then it could be quite a while before we make new highs again. Any close of the SPX below 1370 that holds for more than a day or two and it means the end of the Bull market IMO.

    When the S and P touched 1370 - it bounced off a multi month trendline - keeping the 4+ year bull market uptrend intact- so all hope is not lost. If the Fed and Politicians manage to juice the consumer and national psyche enough we may just climb out of this and make new highs with in few months as you predict.

    [ Edited: 19 November 2011 12:23 AM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 18 November 2011 11:47 PM #4

    lovemyipad - 19 November 2011 12:36 AM

    New thread because there are just too many gems in the archives…

    Here’s Spongie:

    omacvi - 06 July 2007 04:06 PM

    snip

    Actually, if memory serves me correctly, it wasn’t Spongie back then. It was “Lara”.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 November 2011 12:47 AM #5

    rattyuk - 31 August 2007 12:57 PM


    rattyuk wrote: This appears to have turned into a p***ing contest.

    carbonat wrote: Ahem! What word is p***ing. Is it ?pissing??. Just for my enlightenment. Sorry for the obviously naive question.

    URBAN DICTIONARY:
    1. pissing contest
    1. a dispute that?s a matter of one side?s claims or bluster against the other?s; a word feud; bickering; belly bumping. Contrary to some definitions, women are quite capable of (although usually less inclined to) ?hold their own? in a pissing contest, which could morph into a shirt-shredding cat fight.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 November 2011 01:21 AM #6

    Carbonat was a great guy that got wiped out in the last crash. I’ll never forget that. Not many listened to Mtdoc unfortunately. I was so naive back then!

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 November 2011 01:27 AM #7

    ChasMac77 - 19 November 2011 05:21 AM

    Carbonat was a great guy that got wiped out in the last crash. I’ll never forget that. Not many listened to Mtdoc unfortunately. I was so naive back then!

    Mtdoc marched off after throwing up his arms because of the perma bulls on AFB. The perma bull culture of AFB is one reason why manyt of us don’t bother sharing what we’re really doing.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 November 2011 02:44 AM #8

    Eric Landstrom - 19 November 2011 05:27 AM
    ChasMac77 - 19 November 2011 05:21 AM

    Carbonat was a great guy that got wiped out in the last crash. I’ll never forget that. Not many listened to Mtdoc unfortunately. I was so naive back then!

    Mtdoc marched off after throwing up his arms because of the perma bulls on AFB. The perma bull culture of AFB is one reason why manyt of us don’t bother sharing what we’re really doing.

    Looked at over the course of the last 4.5 years, the “perma” bulls have been right, even through the worst recession in many decades.  If you disagree - what stock would you put forward that has performed better over the same period? Just for fun lets look at a bank like BAC: -75%.  The past 10 years?  hmmmm: Aapl is going to be difficult to beat.  OK, that proves that the perma bulls were the crazy ones.  Looking forward: the big boom years may be over but the “perma” bulls may again prove to be right.  We can look forward to 50% appreciation over 3 years (shush you uber perma bulls).  Enough to “share what we’re really doing” wink  Lara, you got it right.

         
  • Posted: 19 November 2011 03:28 AM #9

    Bryanyc - 19 November 2011 06:44 AM

    Looked at over the course of the last 4.5 years, the “perma” bulls have been right, even through the worst recession in many decades.  If you disagree - what stock would you put forward that has performed better over the same period? Just for fun lets look at a bank like BAC: -75%.  The past 10 years?  hmmmm: Aapl is going to be difficult to beat.  OK, that proves that the perma bulls were the crazy ones.  Looking forward: the big boom years may be over but the “perma” bulls may again prove to be right.  We can look forward to 50% appreciation over 3 years (shush you uber perma bulls).  Enough to “share what we’re really doing” wink  Lara, you got it right.

    +1

    For myself, I’m not interested in owning any more BAC.  It may be true that the banks have to come around for a broader, sustainable rally, but that’s where my interest ends.

    On the other hand, there’s a big difference between decrying Apple as undervalued and a “Perma Bull.”  In any event, how can one NOT be optimistic about Apple with its fundamentals?

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 November 2011 10:41 AM #10

    Unique - 19 November 2011 12:44 AM

    Ipad do you just randonly select an archived thread and browse through it or you do them orderly?

    I have a spreadsheet. :D. No, I’m kidding! wink

    Every so often, I explore a time period that interests me.  So I’ll plunk myself down in that milleu and chronologically peruse threads that interest me, mainly: Intraday, Options, and AAPL: Buy Now?

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 November 2011 11:02 AM #11

    Mercel - 19 November 2011 07:28 AM
    Bryanyc - 19 November 2011 06:44 AM

    Looked at over the course of the last 4.5 years, the “perma” bulls have been right, even through the worst recession in many decades.  If you disagree - what stock would you put forward that has performed better over the same period? Just for fun lets look at a bank like BAC: -75%.  The past 10 years?  hmmmm: Aapl is going to be difficult to beat.  OK, that proves that the perma bulls were the crazy ones.  Looking forward: the big boom years may be over but the “perma” bulls may again prove to be right.  We can look forward to 50% appreciation over 3 years (shush you uber perma bulls).  Enough to “share what we’re really doing” wink  Lara, you got it right.

    +1

    For myself, I’m not interested in owning any more BAC.  It may be true that the banks have to come around for a broader, sustainable rally, but that’s where my interest ends.

    On the other hand, there’s a big difference between decrying Apple as undervalued and a “Perma Bull.”  In any event, how can one NOT be optimistic about Apple with its fundamentals?

    Bryan and Mercel, I agree with both of you.  The differentiation being what it’s always been: trading versus investing. 

    As an investment, IMHO, there isn’t another stock that compares.  Spongie, as an advocate for buying and holding, has proven and will continue to prove correct for anyone with long-term time horizons.  If you buy regularly, theoretically dollar-cost averaging through the peaks and troughs, you’ll be smiling down the road.

    As a trading vehicle, AAPL is often a rocket to nowhere, traversing the same territory many times over before breaking new ground.  AAPL’s price chronically lags fundamentals; while immensely frustrating, it is what it is, and it’s nothing new.  Traders play the hand we’re dealt.

    [ Edited: 19 November 2011 11:37 AM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 November 2011 12:27 PM #12

    lovemyipad - 19 November 2011 12:36 AM

    New thread because there are just too many gems in the archives…

    Here’s Spongie:

    omacvi - 06 July 2007 04:06 PM

    today’s trading reminds me of monday.  the stock went down even after the iPhone came out.  Then came Tuesday when news of a sell out came out and 55% profit and the stock went up almost $6. Then came Thursday when talk of 1 million phones sold and the stock went up another $5.

    For today to pass without some serious profit taking is a very good sign.

    We need some big news on Monday.  I still doubt Apple will release numbers until July 25.  When they release them they want them to be as big as possible.

    I bought a few more share to hold for 5 years or more.  I bought and sold 1000 Shares for a nice profit in the first 45 minutes.

    so overall it was a good day.

    I still think this stock will correct itself a little, but it will be difficult to time so my advice is buy and hold, because in 6 months we might see it close to $200.


    I am not sure if I should cry or laugh .  I wish I was as smart then as I am now.  However in my defense no one could have predicted a 50% haircut and much higher by 2009.  I am more margined now then in 2007.  Yes bigger risk but Apple is much stronger today.  Fortunately I listened to the bulls here and bought right back fully margined by the time we hit 130.

    I do miss Tommo and mtdoc.