Andy zaky roles up his sleeves….

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  • Posted: 27 November 2011 06:54 PM #1

    100% true but the market does not believe..

    Also , Zaky’s post fail to explain why analyst’s extremely low expectations for future growth
    are so wrong.

    Analysts expects about 10% annual earning growth for coming years.
    It would be easy for Zaky to prove that annual growth will more than 40% for at least the next 4 years. Too bad he does not.

    Analyst expectations is the main reason for AAPL undervaluation.

         
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    Posted: 27 November 2011 07:10 PM #2

    Nagrani - 27 November 2011 08:57 PM

    http://bullishcross.com/apple-the-most-undervalued-large-cap-stock-in-america/

    The PE chart is incorrect for the 08-09 period. The actual (restated without hiding deferred earnings) daily low PE bottomed out at 10.5 in mid Jan 19, 2009.

    I like what he says about aapl/Apple but it would be delusional to expect the market to respond in kind. The market will do what it will do flush as many weak hands as possible. That’s the nature of the beast.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    [ Edited: 27 November 2011 07:12 PM by johnG ]      
  • Posted: 27 November 2011 07:21 PM #3

    I appreciate Andy’s shining a light on Apple’s fundamentals.  Two quick comments:

    1.  Andy references Q3 2011 at the beginning of the article “as recently reported.”  What happened to Q4 2011?  He’s referring to fiscal quarters, so even though Q4 2011 was a bit of disappointment, he risks the accusation of “cherry-picking” quarters.  He doesn’t have to in order to make his larger points.

    2.  His trailing EPS for Q4 2011 appears light at $25, as I think it’s $27 and change. 

    Just a quick scan of the article and these two caught my eye.  Overall, it certainly supports the idea Apple is undervalued.

         
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    Posted: 27 November 2011 07:31 PM #4

    Mercel - 27 November 2011 11:21 PM

    I appreciate Andy’s shining a light on Apple’s fundamentals.  Two quick comments:

    1.  Andy references Q3 2011 at the beginning of the article “as recently reported.”  What happened to Q4 2011?  He’s referring to fiscal quarters, so even though Q4 2011 was a bit of disappointment, he risks the accusation of “cherry-picking” quarters.  He doesn’t have to in order to make his larger points.

    2.  His trailing EPS for Q4 2011 appears light at $25, as I think it’s $27 and change. 

    Just a quick scan of the article and these two caught my eye.  Overall, it certainly supports the idea Apple is undervalued.

    $27.65 TTM

         
  • Posted: 27 November 2011 08:18 PM #5

    Nagrani - 27 November 2011 08:57 PM

    http://bullishcross.com/apple-the-most-undervalued-large-cap-stock-in-america/

    Good article.  One of the comments mentioned this low valuation is making it easy for Apple to take themselves private soon.  Given this, aren’t we at the point where the stock either rises with earnings or it goes private, either of which AAPL investors are rewarded?

         
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    Posted: 27 November 2011 08:20 PM #6

    Andy, and everyone else who has belief in all things AAPL, do not mean bug crap on your windshield!

    It is the media that decides who is and who is not worth investing in. CNBC, is the single worst piece of crap ever known to man when it comes to all things investing, just a bunch of talking heads giving their own opinions on how to game the markets. I have not seen a single reporter on CNBC who is not just giving an opinion vs actual news. They do not tell the news anymore, they skew markets with opinions, and I don’t need an English chap or gal to do that for me, Mr and Mrs America. Do you?

    CNBC is all about options and gaming, nothing butt. Pablum for the unwashed, to steal money from the hinterlands of folks who do not have enough. These MF’s, (bad expletive) could not invest their way out of a diaper! Guy should be shot, and Cramer should be next, much less the little female narrow minded twits. ( well they tweet, so I guess they know what the F they are talking about crowd). Put spread this you lousy stinking, market manipulating bastages of the ill spawn ilk!

    When Andy has full respect, and can tell the true AAPL story on CNBC, as a guest host, with his infallible reasoning, then we AAPL holders have a chance. Till then it is just confetti in the air, which we who believe will nod and say, yes, he is right. It is not I, who needs convincing. We as a unit of informational discourse, are sorely begotten, and we do our job poorly. The game is rigged, or are you just waking up to that fact?

    I mean Andy well, but his reasoning is just too sound too be listened to. Andy does not move markets, Kathryn Huberty does. Shannon Cross does. They shake out the weak to make for the rich. Just like Ben Bernanky, and Tim Geitner, and Paulson, and Corzine, and all the rest of the Banksters. Retail investors are toast, and that is just how they want it. And the talking heads at CNBC are the single worst in this, as either they are complicit, or just really, really fu#$ing stupid!

    He/She who controls the money, controls the world.

    MF’s!

    PPS, and to add, now i have to pay to hear Andy’s opinions, just like the rest of the outsiders. Andy, stand up man!

    Unlike most tree’s in the forest, they will not shake my shares from my hands till I am cold and buried. I bought some more, and i will buy some more, and then i will buy even more, to add to my substantial largesse. Then I will buy more!

    [ Edited: 27 November 2011 08:34 PM by MacManus ]

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  • Posted: 27 November 2011 08:30 PM #7

    MacManus - 28 November 2011 12:20 AM

    When Andy has full respect, and can tell the true AAPL story on CNBC, as a guest host, with his infallible reasoning, then we AAPL holders have a chance. Till then it is just confetti in the air, which we who believe will nod and say, yes, he is right. It is not I, who needs convincing. We as a unit of informational discourse, are sorely begotten, and we do our job poorly. .

    I’d like to go on CNBC, and instead of talking about Apple, use Apple as an example of CNBC’s stupidity, without pulling punches. Make them cut me off, or sit and take it.

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  • Posted: 27 November 2011 08:47 PM #8

    Hamourabi - 27 November 2011 10:54 PM

    100% true but the market does not believe..

    Also , Zaky’s post fail to explain why analyst’s extremely low expectations for future growth
    are so wrong.

    Analysts expects about 10% annual earning growth for coming years.
    It would be easy for Zaky to prove that annual growth will more than 40% for at least the next 4 years. Too bad he does not.

    Analyst expectations is the main reason for AAPL undervaluation.

    I will do that in future articles.  There’s only so much I can post in one article.

         
  • Posted: 27 November 2011 08:52 PM #9

    johnG - 27 November 2011 11:10 PM
    Nagrani - 27 November 2011 08:57 PM

    http://bullishcross.com/apple-the-most-undervalued-large-cap-stock-in-america/

    The PE chart is incorrect for the 08-09 period. The actual (restated without hiding deferred earnings) daily low PE bottomed out at 10.5 in mid Jan 19, 2009.

    I like what he says about aapl/Apple but it would be delusional to expect the market to respond in kind. The market will do what it will do flush as many weak hands as possible. That’s the nature of the beast.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    That’s the issue though.  Apple didn’t trade at a GAAP-based P/E ratio of 10.5 during the financial crisis.  You can only use what the market was confronted with at the time.  And at the time, the stock was trading at a 14 P/E ratio based on what the market knew back then. 

    The vast majority of market participants didn’t do the requisite work necessarily to realize the P/E ratio was lower than it appeared during that period of time.  So why would I use a P/E ratio that the market never saw?  When market participants looked up Apple’s P/E ratio during the crisis, they saw 14/15/16 P/E ratios at the time.  They didn’t see 10.5. 

    The earnings were adjusted over a year later.  To use that P/E ratio when discussing how the market was valuing Apple at the time is to presuppose that the market had the information of the adjustment at the time when that was clearly not the case.

         
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    Posted: 27 November 2011 08:52 PM #10

    andyzaky - 28 November 2011 12:47 AM
    Hamourabi - 27 November 2011 10:54 PM

    100% true but the market does not believe..

    Also , Zaky’s post fail to explain why analyst’s extremely low expectations for future growth
    are so wrong.

    Analysts expects about 10% annual earning growth for coming years.
    It would be easy for Zaky to prove that annual growth will more than 40% for at least the next 4 years. Too bad he does not.

    Analyst expectations is the main reason for AAPL undervaluation.

    I will do that in future articles.  There’s only so much I can post in one article.

    Nice work Andy! Much appreciated.

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    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
  • Posted: 27 November 2011 08:56 PM #11

    Mercel - 27 November 2011 11:21 PM

    I appreciate Andy’s shining a light on Apple’s fundamentals.  Two quick comments:

    1.  Andy references Q3 2011 at the beginning of the article “as recently reported.”  What happened to Q4 2011?  He’s referring to fiscal quarters, so even though Q4 2011 was a bit of disappointment, he risks the accusation of “cherry-picking” quarters.  He doesn’t have to in order to make his larger points.

    2.  His trailing EPS for Q4 2011 appears light at $25, as I think it’s $27 and change. 

    Just a quick scan of the article and these two caught my eye.  Overall, it certainly supports the idea Apple is undervalued.

    1.  Apple’s recently reported fiscal Q3 is the most recently reported fiscal Q3.  I’m pointing out how dramatic the growth rate was in fiscal Q3.  A huge quarter for this year.  It’s not so recently reported fiscal Q3 would be in 2010. 

    2.  I don’t know where I say trailing EPS for Q4 2011 is $25?  If you look at the article, I state trailing EPS as $27.68.  Unless there’s a typo somewhere?

    Andy

    p/s sorry for posting 3 posts.  I still haven’t figured out this whole multi-quote things.  Please don’t crucify me.

         
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    Posted: 27 November 2011 09:05 PM #12

    Andy,

    I know that my post is full of vitriol, it does however beg a response, should you feel inclined! I am dismayed you did not take the opportunity.

    Best

    Brian

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    Posted: 27 November 2011 09:07 PM #13

    No crucifixion necessary.

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    Bought and Held

         
  • Posted: 27 November 2011 09:13 PM #14

    MacManus - 28 November 2011 01:05 AM

    Andy,

    I know that my post is full of vitriol, it does however beg a response, should you feel inclined! I am dismayed you did not take the opportunity.

    Best

    Brian

    Mac—I’m so limited by time.  I get literally hundreds of comments a day.  There’s really so much I can answer.  When the call of the question is very long, I can’t really marshall the time required to give a response.  But if it’s one single point being made, it’s a lot easier.  I’m doing this while writing a 10 or so page article for tonight.  I do a few hundred pages of writing a week and I’m faced with literally hundreds sometimes 1000+ questions in a week.  So please don’t take it the wrong if I time doesn’t allow me to answer the question.

    EDIT: Here’s what I will say since you did ask for a response.  It’s true that it’s a lot harder for someone like me to move markets.  I have moved markets a few times in the past however and I know what it would take to move markets again.

    But that’s NOT my intention here.  The intention here is to help sentiment on a larger scale through my resources and contacts in the press.  I’m just trying to create a level playing field from a sentiment standpoint so that instead of there being 75 bearish Apple articles in a day, there will be 75 bearish articles and 4 bullish ones now. 

    It’s going to take a huge effort on my part, but I’m going to put in quite the effort.  And this has nothing to do with Apple’s price right now.  The stock is bottoming out if it hasn’t bottomed already. 

    The stock is going to go on a huge run between now and January.  You’ll see $420 by January.  Even from this level.  The market is right at a key bottom.  The first bounce will be sold into on the market and we’ll see lower prices than Friday on the S&P and on the NASDAQ, but Apple will outperform the market for December and January.

    Andy

    [ Edited: 27 November 2011 09:21 PM by andyzaky ]      
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    Posted: 27 November 2011 09:15 PM #15

    coma - 28 November 2011 01:07 AM

    No crucifixion necessary.

    +1.    We need the cogent story told. Nice job

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