FY 2012 Revenue Forecast: $170 billion

  • Posted: 28 November 2011 11:20 PM

    This is my preliminary FY 2012 revenue and eps forecast.

    Revenue: $170 billion or about a 57% revenue gain year-over-year.

    Snippet: The Apple iPhone alone will deliver over $85 billion in revenue in FY 2012 or an amount equal to at least 130% of the company’s FY 2010 recognized revenue total.

         
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    Posted: 28 November 2011 11:27 PM #1

    Well done, Robert!

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  • Posted: 29 November 2011 11:51 PM #2

    Seeking Alpha did pick-up the story earlier today.

    Apple is currently trading at about eight times projected FY 2012 earnings with cash representing 23% of today’s share price.

         
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    Posted: 29 November 2011 11:55 PM #3

    8x forward earnings.

    And it’s AAPL which trades at this level.

    Really quite something.

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  • Posted: 30 November 2011 01:37 AM #4

    Mav - 30 November 2011 03:55 AM

    8x forward earnings.

    And it’s AAPL which trades at this level.

    Really quite something.

    And the only something I can think of is General Taylor’s response to the Nazis demand for surrender.  NUTS!

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  • Posted: 30 November 2011 01:41 AM #5

    BillH - 30 November 2011 05:37 AM
    Mav - 30 November 2011 03:55 AM

    8x forward earnings.

    And it’s AAPL which trades at this level.

    Really quite something.

    And the only something I can think of is General Taylor’s response to the Nazis demand for surrender.  NUTS!

    I’m not a market timer. I look for opportunities for the long-term. I haven’t found one that’s better than Apple.

         
  • Posted: 03 December 2011 02:04 PM #6

    DawnTreader - 29 November 2011 03:20 AM

    This is my preliminary FY 2012 revenue and eps forecast.

    Revenue: $170 billion or about a 57% revenue gain year-over-year.

    Snippet: The Apple iPhone alone will deliver over $85 billion in revenue in FY 2012 or an amount equal to at least 130% of the company’s FY 2010 recognized revenue total.

    ————————————————

    I’m now seeing the prospect of FY 2013 becoming Apple’s first one-quarter trillion dollar revenue year.

         
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    Posted: 03 December 2011 03:38 PM #7

    It’s possible.  A funny thing about the Law of Large Numbers, smaller percentages of a huge number still make quite a difference.

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    Posted: 28 May 2012 02:49 AM #8

    170 B forecast.


    39+46 = 85.    We are half-way there.  I think Robert underestimated by about 5 billion.

         
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    Posted: 28 May 2012 03:23 AM #9

    Fiscal Q4 2012 brings MASSIVE unknowns.  I think there’s a chance of a $42B fiscal Q3.  But fiscal Q4 will likely bring a fairly anemic iPhone YOY growth quarter, unless the sixth-gen iPhone launches in massive quantities before end of September, which I think is highly doubtful at least until we get more color on the iOS 6 release date.

    Amusingly, however, fiscal Q4 2011’s anemic iPhone number of 17.07M makes it easier for Apple to post a respectable iPhone YOY growth number during that ever-difficult iPhone transition period.

    Combined iPad/iPhone sales might need to be in the neighborhood of 53-55M in fiscal Q4 to meet $170B in revs.  Can iPad pick up the slack for iPhone?

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    Posted: 28 May 2012 10:31 AM #10

    Great article.

    Earnings per share @ 46.  A P/E @ 14 yields the coincidental value of $644.

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    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2012 02:49 PM #11

    Mav - 03 December 2011 07:38 PM

    It’s possible.  A funny thing about the Law of Large Numbers, smaller percentages of a huge number still make quite a difference.

    Hence my coined phrase: “The Law of Smaller Numbers.”

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2012 02:54 PM #12

    This $170 billion revenue estimate was published six months ago. It’s quite interesting to see the estimates being produced by the Braeburn Group of independent analysts for the June quarter and subsequent quarters through FY 2013. We will begin publishing estimates on the Group’s home page beginning mid-to-late June.

    In the meantime, please see my most recently published post: The Apple June Quarter Halftime Report.