iPad Volume

  • Posted: 08 December 2011 03:59 PM

    It seems everyone is finally getting on board with the iPhone number being very, very good.  Most are closing on a 30 million number with many saying that this a “conservative” number.  This is good because the iPhone really drives quarterly results.

    I’m curious, though, about the iPad number.  Everyone of the talking heads seems to be saying it’s going to be an issue.  Certainly, there doesn’t seem to be a waiting line for them.  The Apple Store has all models in stock.  I know that Apple gives priority to stocking its own shelves first.  Has anyone heard if there are still significant waiting times in other countries like China?

    Given the way the FUDsters deal with Apple, I can just imagine the tirades if the iPad number fails to astound We could end up with a $12 profit/$42 billion revenue quarter and the headline could be.  “Kindle Flame kills Apple iPad sales!”  I guess last Quarter has me a little more cautious than usual.

    Anecdotally, I was at the Apple store recently for a 1 on 1 session and asked one of the managers how the iPad was selling?  The response was one word, “Crazy.”

         
  • Posted: 08 December 2011 05:44 PM #1

    ncgo4 - 08 December 2011 07:59 PM

    It seems everyone is finally getting on board with the iPhone number being very, very good.  Most are closing on a 30 million number with many saying that this a “conservative” number.  This is good because the iPhone really drives quarterly results.

    I’m curious, though, about the iPad number.  Everyone of the talking heads seems to be saying it’s going to be an issue.  Certainly, there doesn’t seem to be a waiting line for them.  The Apple Store has all models in stock.  I know that Apple gives priority to stocking its own shelves first.  Has anyone heard if there are still significant waiting times in other countries like China?

    Given the way the FUDsters deal with Apple, I can just imagine the tirades if the iPad number fails to astound We could end up with a $12 profit/$42 billion revenue quarter and the headline could be.  “Kindle Flame kills Apple iPad sales!”  I guess last Quarter has me a little more cautious than usual.

    Anecdotally, I was at the Apple store recently for a 1 on 1 session and asked one of the managers how the iPad was selling?  The response was one word, “Crazy.”

    As a life time sales person of one sort or another, whenever anyone asked how business was I’d respond, “incredible”.  “Incredible” means the same thing as “crazy”.  Nothing.

    Next time ask the manager a yes or no question, i.e., are they selling more iPads this quarter, than they did last quarter.

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    Posted: 08 December 2011 06:18 PM #2

    The xmas quarter SHOULD be massive for iPad - if the final result is similar to last quarter then we know that its probably true that the kindle Fire is indeed eating into iPad sales.

    However the Kindle Fire is sold in america only (right?), so the impact on the international iPad sales (at least 50% of ipad sales i’m guessing) should be near zero.

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    Posted: 08 December 2011 07:03 PM #3

    Most people around me are waiting for iPad 3. I’m starting to wish for the iPad 2 but am willing to wait for the update. Maybe 5-10% are like me and my friends. The other majority don’t care and will be scarfing them up. Anecdotally, the iOS apps are the lock-in. Once you get attached to a single device in the ecosystem, it’s all over. smile

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  • Posted: 08 December 2011 07:16 PM #4

    iOSWeekly - 08 December 2011 10:18 PM

    The xmas quarter SHOULD be massive for iPad - if the final result is similar to last quarter then we know that its probably true that the kindle Fire is indeed eating into iPad sales.

    However the Kindle Fire is sold in america only (right?), so the impact on the international iPad sales (at least 50% of ipad sales i’m guessing) should be near zero.

    They may initially, but if return rates and reviews are accurate indicators, consumer expectations are not being met (iPad comparisons being made?).

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    Posted: 08 December 2011 07:39 PM #5

    [This post was removed because the moderators arbitrarily censor.]

    [ Edited: 08 January 2012 04:23 AM by the_dragonfly ]

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    Posted: 08 December 2011 07:54 PM #6

    the_dragonfly - 08 December 2011 11:39 PM

    Its going to be funny watching the FUDsters claim the kindle fire is beating the iPad when Amazon never releases kindle numbers (because they are embarrassing.)

    Watch out there . . .

    FWIW: there have been lots of reports floating around that Amazon built somewhere around 5M Kindle Fires.  I think there is a decent chance they could sell all of them, seriously they are only $199 (some were $123 on Black Friday), and lets assume they have a lower return rate that most of us think ... say only 15% (750K).

    Those would be numbers to crow about, but I still think Amazon wouldn’t reveal it.  I still think there are several market segments in play here:

    a) Amazon Kindle fans that want a color Kindle (small minority);
    b) folks that want a tablet but (i) only have $199 and/or (ii) can’t tell any of the other Android tablets apart from each other and trust Amazon (Amazon has a good brand name and reputation);
    c) folks that want an iPad - I don’t think anyone looking for an iPad will accidentally end up with a Kindle, if that happens I think it will most likely be because of price.

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    Posted: 08 December 2011 09:07 PM #7

    ChicagoBob - 08 December 2011 11:54 PM
    the_dragonfly - 08 December 2011 11:39 PM

    Its going to be funny watching the FUDsters claim the kindle fire is beating the iPad when Amazon never releases kindle numbers (because they are embarrassing.)

    Watch out there . . .

    FWIW: there have been lots of reports floating around that Amazon built somewhere around 5M Kindle Fires.  I think there is a decent chance they could sell all of them, seriously they are only $199 (some were $123 on Black Friday), and lets assume they have a lower return rate that most of us think ... say only 15% (750K).

    Those would be numbers to crow about, but I still think Amazon wouldn’t reveal it.  I still think there are several market segments in play here:

    a) Amazon Kindle fans that want a color Kindle (small minority);
    b) folks that want a tablet but (i) only have $199 and/or (ii) can’t tell any of the other Android tablets apart from each other and trust Amazon (Amazon has a good brand name and reputation);
    c) folks that want an iPad - I don’t think anyone looking for an iPad will accidentally end up with a Kindle, if that happens I think it will most likely be because of price.

    d) Christmas gifts. $199 is gift buying price. $499 isn’t.

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    Posted: 08 December 2011 11:24 PM #8

    [This post was removed because the moderators arbitrarily censor.]

    [ Edited: 08 January 2012 04:23 AM by the_dragonfly ]

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  • Posted: 09 December 2011 12:11 AM #9

    13.9 mm iPads is my guess.

    That would be only 90% growth.  Let them spin it.

         
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    Posted: 09 December 2011 01:49 AM #10

    The ipad3 rumors are going to take a little “edge” off of the sales. JMO.

    My model is currently using 13.5m for the total iPad#. A tiny bit “soft” ................  but still a good #.

      cheers to the longs
          JohnG

         
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    Posted: 09 December 2011 02:35 AM #11

    johnG - 09 December 2011 05:49 AM

    The ipad3 rumors are going to take a little “edge” off of the sales. JMO.

    My model is currently using 13.5m for the total iPad#. A tiny bit “soft” ................  but still a good #.

      cheers to the longs
          JohnG

    I’m not aware of any iPad 3 rumors in the mainstream media yet, just in analyst reports and on tech enthusiast blogs etc. Most that would be tracking iPad 3 rumors would have already bought an iPad 2 when it first launched, or own an iPad 1.

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    Posted: 09 December 2011 03:07 AM #12

    100% YOY growth sounds reasonable to me.  14.66M isn’t too far-fetched a number.

    Btw, what’s your floor on iPad 2 sales in Q1 2012?  Don’t forget the extra week, too.  In case you have doubts, that fun thought exercise I did back in late October should greatly reassure you.

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    Posted: 09 December 2011 10:00 AM #13

    Mav - 09 December 2011 07:07 AM

    Btw, what’s your floor on iPad 2 sales in Q1 2012?

    FWIW: my floor on iPads has been rising all quarter.  I started off at 7.5M, but my worst case is now 9.75M (and I don’t think we’ll have a worst case quarter).

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    Posted: 09 December 2011 12:21 PM #14

    Next time ask the manager a yes or no question, i.e., are they selling more iPads this quarter, than they did last quarter.

    “Let me answer that by asking you a question.” smile

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    Posted: 10 December 2011 12:19 AM #15

    No need to wait for an iPad 3. The iPad 2 is a near perfect device. Fast and snappy, great graphics, small and light. It’s perfect for email and the web. The screen is plenty big enough. You can access your Mac via the Splashtop app. I got the 32 GB WiFi only model and use it all the time. It’ll probably be 6 months before an iPad 3, and I’m guessing that the differences between the new one and the present one won’t be all that startling-like the 4S phone vs the 4. I’m guessing the sales figures will remain strong, as the product is such an amazing device.

    From my iPad

    PG

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