Apple 2.0: The Quarterly Estimate Comparisons Begin!

  • Posted: 02 January 2012 07:58 PM

    Everyone:

    PED has begun his series of analyst comparisons for FQ1.

    The link in the article to Posts At Eventide brings front and center my FQ1 preview post.

    I’m looking forward to seeing all of the estimates on display as we await results for what I call “Apple’s Monster Quarter.”

         
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    Posted: 02 January 2012 08:28 PM #1

    Interesting.

    $43B seems like it’s on the high side for me - the “problem” is, that’s an average.  I wonder if anyone’s out in the $45B range…they would seem like an outlier, IMHO.  I hope they can prove me wrong.

    I’m thinking along the same lines as Andy (he’s at $11.75, I’m at $11.50).  Step back, recalibrate, apply liberal doses of conservatism (I see what I unintentionally did there!), accept that you’ll probably be low as you reset your baseline, and see what happens.  At the same time, I do find it interesting that the 12 polled amateurs, averaged, have a net profit margin estimate of about 26% when applying a little educated guesswork (ah, so there’s where the conservatism is).  That’s where I’m at, for only $41.5B in revs, and it’s a very conservative number IMHO.  You’d think net profit margin numbers would get a little higher around the $43B revs mark, considering the 25.5% net profit margin Apple achieved two fiscal quarters ago on far less revs and far fewer iPhones…

    [ Edited: 02 January 2012 08:45 PM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 04 January 2012 01:04 AM #2

    This interactive Asymco chart is cool. I am hoping the next update has the ‘independent’ circles much closer to the blue dot smile
    Note that the dynamic chart at the bottom of the list requires Flash to view.

    http://www.asymco.com/hire-me/apple-analyst-data/

    The dynamic chart looks SO GOOD up until about June 2 when everybody’s numbers ran away and up to the left.

    [ Edited: 04 January 2012 01:07 AM by K447 ]      
  • Posted: 04 January 2012 03:24 AM #3

    Mav:

    I’ll be publishing my FQ1 estimates this weekend. The numbers I’ve seen from the independents call for a very strong quarter. As you know the quarter is 14 weeks in length and capturing the immediate post-Christmas shopping week in FQ1 will have a big impact on the outcome.

    This is the first 14-week FQ1 since the release of the iPhone and the debut of the iPhone 4S in the quarter and availability on the three biggest domestic networks will also benefit results. Also remember this is the first holiday quarter for the iPhone on Verizon and the iPhone 4S came to market as the original Droid contracts from two years ago came up for renewal.

     

    Mav - 03 January 2012 12:28 AM

    Interesting.

    $43B seems like it’s on the high side for me - the “problem” is, that’s an average.  I wonder if anyone’s out in the $45B range…they would seem like an outlier, IMHO.  I hope they can prove me wrong.

    I’m thinking along the same lines as Andy (he’s at $11.75, I’m at $11.50).  Step back, recalibrate, apply liberal doses of conservatism (I see what I unintentionally did there!), accept that you’ll probably be low as you reset your baseline, and see what happens.  At the same time, I do find it interesting that the 12 polled amateurs, averaged, have a net profit margin estimate of about 26% when applying a little educated guesswork (ah, so there’s where the conservatism is).  That’s where I’m at, for only $41.5B in revs, and it’s a very conservative number IMHO.  You’d think net profit margin numbers would get a little higher around the $43B revs mark, considering the 25.5% net profit margin Apple achieved two fiscal quarters ago on far less revs and far fewer iPhones…

         
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    Posted: 04 January 2012 01:28 PM #4

    A little late but submitted today to PED.

    I didn’t look at other people’s numbers a great deal.  Andy Zaky and I are on the same page for methodology.  He was more precise in source data and calculations.  I used round numbers for the sake of general clarity.  I’ll be happy to be in the ballpark.

    Revenue:  42.1
    EPS:  11.75
    iPhone units:  33 M
    iPod units:  15 M
    Mac units:  4.8 M
    iPad units: 14 M
    Gross margin %:  42

         
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    Posted: 04 January 2012 01:32 PM #5

    This particular quarter, I seem to be aligning with the independent “semi-bears” (relatively speaking).  My own numbers are very close to yours and Andy’s (but with even more conservatism, with a couple of exceptions):

    Revs:  $41.5B
    EPS:  $11.50
    iPhone:  32.47M
    iPod:  15M
    Mac:  4.92M
    iPad:  14.66M
    GM:  42.5%

    I’d be fine with these numbers.  Like Andy, I’m expecting better (than his “base case”).  I have a feeling the market is too, what with that “14th week effect.”  The bigger the blowout, the less the “but Apple had a 1-week headstart of sales this past quarter!” will be questioned. 

    Open question:  Does anyone think a hidden 7-8% bias will be applied to Apple’s results?  In other words, will the results be subject to further discount because of the possibility of 7.7% or so more revenue due to one more week of sales (possibly much higher due to the holiday factor)? 

    Put another way, will some atom-splitters attempt the impossible and say, “because of the 14th week, Apple’s growth should really be discounted by 7-9%?”

    The good news is this works in Apple’s favor as well.  Were Tim Cook and Co. not so aggressively managing Apple’s growth (see:  favoring the bigger picture by delaying the iPhone 4S and taking a one-quarter hit in the smartphone growth rate), I would probably be in the $44B ballpark.  If Apple’s production lines for iPhone 4S made it to full speed quickly enough (doubtful), Apple might’ve been able to shoot for $46B+.  IMHO though, that’s not how Apple plays this game…

    [ Edited: 04 January 2012 01:42 PM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 04 January 2012 02:22 PM #6

    I am now convinced that apple guidance plus 20% gives you fairly sure high end earnings estimate , regardless of season, products etc. anyone aiming higher than that says that they don’t believe apple’s own guidance

         
  • Posted: 04 January 2012 03:51 PM #7

    mstefa - 04 January 2012 06:22 PM

    I am now convinced that apple guidance plus 20% gives you fairly sure high end earnings estimate , regardless of season, products etc. anyone aiming higher than that says that they don’t believe apple’s own guidance

    mstefa, you can’t apply a 20% factor to everything that Apple guides, but you are getting there with your understanding of the relationship between Apple’s guidance and actual results.

    Currently Apple seems to be discounting what they believe actual EPS results will be by ~23%.

    Working it from the other direction guidance ($9.30) X 1.30 = results ($12.09 my estimate).

    $12.09 X 77% (100% - 23%) = $9.3093

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  • Posted: 06 January 2012 01:47 AM #8

    I’ll be publishing my numbers on Saturday. Verizon’s announcement on iPhone sales reveals the relative strength of the iPhone against all other smartphone makes and models in straight-up competition.

         
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    Posted: 07 January 2012 03:41 AM #9

    It’s Saturday, DT!  Whatcha got?  smile

    Honestly, I always thought that AT&T was an excellent example of iPhone’s disruptive power.

    Unless Fran Shammo decides to give out some additional data, curiously, I don’t think there’s a smartphones sold in calendar Q4 2010 by Verizon number out there!  All there really is?  Data suggesting Verizon added a net 3 million or so smartphone users in a quarter, and that smartphones as percentage of total handsets sold went up to 49% from 43% in the previous quarter.  Whatever that all means.  What I _do_ know is that 4.2M VeriPhones sold in calendar Q4 is a perfectly respectable number, and supply constraints may still be a factor given demand still exceeding supply (which may be easing, given Verizon’s ship by times).

    [ Edited: 07 January 2012 03:44 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 07 January 2012 03:49 AM #10

    Mav - 07 January 2012 07:41 AM

    It’s Saturday, DT!  Whatcha got?  smile

    Mav, what are doing still up?  This past weeks action got you to pumped to sleep?

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    Posted: 07 January 2012 03:51 AM #11

    *points to AFB Night Owl Team self-label*

    Hey, I could ask you the same thing. 

    Don’t forget, it’s only 11:50PM Pacific, 12:50AM Mountain, etc.  This board used to be livelier around these times.

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  • Posted: 07 January 2012 04:13 AM #12

    Mav - 07 January 2012 07:41 AM

    It’s Saturday, DT!  Whatcha got?  smile

    I have the numbers. I’m taking tomorrow to craft the prose. I’ll post a link as soon as the numbers are published. I owe it to the members of the AAPL Independent Analysts group to see the numbers first.

    The fact is I made my final revisions last night. I’ve only been comfortable with the numbers for a few hours.

         
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    Posted: 07 January 2012 04:15 AM #13

    You know I was kidding about getting the numbers out this early in the day, right? wink

    Look forward to comparing notes, Robert.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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    Posted: 07 January 2012 12:41 PM #14

    Horace’s look at pro ’ predictors’ and blogger ’ theorists’ is interesting. 

    http://www.asymco.com/2012/01/06/predictions-for-2012/

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  • Posted: 07 January 2012 12:54 PM #15

    Mav - 07 January 2012 08:15 AM

    You know I was kidding about getting the numbers out this early in the day, right? wink

    Look forward to comparing notes, Robert.

    Get out your binoculars to see the numbers.  :wink: