Red Shirted Ensign - 16 January 2012 01:59 PM

The charts are NOT saying there is anything wrong with the Apple technical picture, other than being outside the upper acceleration band (is this still the case?). The RSI is reasonable, the MACD histogram has moved favorably and the “pause that refreshes” for the latter parts of last week found no significant sellers as we bounced off the 418.80 level or so.

Good read, Red!   And remaining outside the upper acceleration band (yes, still the case) is bullish.  Coming back inside is bearish.

Henry from SI (see Ensign’s post) saw consolidation, like I did!  And I know very little about technicals!

Your read, iPad?

lovemyipad - 16 January 2012 02:17 PM

Red Shirted Ensign - 16 January 2012 01:59 PM

The charts are NOT saying there is anything wrong with the Apple technical picture, other than being outside the upper acceleration band (is this still the case?). The RSI is reasonable, the MACD histogram has moved favorably and the “pause that refreshes” for the latter parts of last week found no significant sellers as we bounced off the 418.80 level or so.

Good read, Red!   And remaining outside the upper acceleration band (yes, still the case) is bullish.  Coming back inside is bearish.

Thanks, Lovey. I’m trying to learn….I was always more of a words than pictures guy

Where’s that snarky custom JD chortle emoticon?

Words over pictures.  Right.

Mav - 16 January 2012 02:23 PM

Where’s that snarky custom JD chortle emoticon?

Words over pictures.  Right.

You wound me sir. May this happen to your portfolio!! 

NOOOOOOO

Oh and since you’re bullish on AAPL as I am, careful what you wish for, words man.

Mav - 16 January 2012 02:21 PM

Henry from SI (see Ensign’s post) saw consolidation, like I did!  And I know very little about technicals!

Your read, iPad?

Hmmm…consolidation just means sideways in a range…flat.  Friday was consolidation.

The week overall had a drip-down downward bias, giving back some of the gains from that last push up; so I’d call it retrace.  So far, so normal.

EDIT: Note: a big leg up will have retrace down; a big leg down will have retrace up.  All normal.

lovemyipad - 15 January 2012 05:02 PM

AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes):

These charts, and your accompanying notes, are great! The trick is in reading the charts in real time, which is a difficult trick indeed. I’m struck by the parallels on the daily chart with the July run up. The MACD showed a fake out decline midway through the run up, which I expect we’re repeating this quarter, if only because of earnings.

The notes, by the way, make the chart.

A picture is worth a thousand words, if those words are all indefinite articles.

lovemyipad - 15 January 2012 05:02 PM

AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes):

Lovey, I can’t help but notice that your indicators after July earnings pointed upward.  Hmmm Apple beat estimates by a wide margin.

Then after October earnings those indicators reversed, going bearish. Hmmm, Apple missed its numbers big time, and then finally, your indicators are pointing up again, just days before the market is expecting the mother of all blow out reports.

Shouldn’t earnings and guidance be enough to tell you how the market is going to behave for the next 90 days?

Gregg Thurman - 16 January 2012 07:55 PM

Lovey, I can’t help but notice that your indicators after July earnings pointed upward.  Hmmm Apple beat estimates by a wide margin.

Then after October earnings those indicators reversed, going bearish. Hmmm, Apple missed its numbers big time, and then finally, your indicators are pointing up again, just days before the market is expecting the mother of all blow out reports.

Shouldn’t earnings and guidance be enough to tell you how the market is going to behave for the next 90 days?

Hmmmm…more like a week.  We don’t go straight up or straight down forever.  We spend most of the year consolidating, in ever-widening ranges.  Peak to peak doesn’t add up to nearly as much as round-trips from peak to valley.  Knowing that, TA tells me how AAPL “is” behaving, how to differentiate between retrace and reversal, when the prevalent trend is weakening, when to scale in or out of positions.

Prazan - 16 January 2012 07:44 PM

These charts, and your accompanying notes, are great! The trick is in reading the charts in real time, which is a difficult trick indeed. I’m struck by the parallels on the daily chart with the July run up. The MACD showed a fake out decline midway through the run up, which I expect we’re repeating this quarter, if only because of earnings.

The notes, by the way, make the chart.

A picture is worth a thousand words, if those words are all indefinite articles.

Thanks, P!  Real-time intraday charts can certainly be trickier in many ways, but in some ways, easier.  For example, the repeating patterns, like: three legs up, break down, back up to retest the high.  Then there’s more reliable divergence on a 1-minute chart…not likely to go on for days on end.  Same with overbought and oversold readings—unless it’s an express-train day, in which case, just throw TA out the window and watch price.

AAPL One-Hour Chart (with my notes):

Need a second opinion on whether this is a proper identification of “hidden bullish divergence.”

In the wake of earnings, technicals could become much less indicative.

Mav - 21 January 2012 05:27 PM

In the wake of earnings, technicals could become much less indicative.

Mav, technicals are ALWAYS indicative, as they tell what IS happening as it happens.  However, they become much less predictive—for those who may attempt to extrapolate—as the “current” picture can change in a blink with new info, and a whole slew of new info is headed our way.

OK, predictive.  Extrapolative.  Whateveritive.