Red Shirted Ensign - 07 February 2012 03:48 PM

Hmmm. I bought march 465 puts this morning. Just a little net under the flying trapeze that seems to be Apple.

Theory:  The board meeting on February 24 is now seen as the absolute, for sure, can’t miss venue when a dividend will be announced. If it isn’t, we drop. If it is announced and isn’t enough, we drop…for a while. Sell the news.

If it is announced and it is goldilocks type of announcement and we explode upwards into March, the rest of my portfolio and spreads do just fine…..

Seems February 24 is now Ground Zero

I’ve thought about a put hedge myself.  Maybe in a week or two.

Red Shirted Ensign - 07 February 2012 03:48 PM

Hmmm. I bought march 465 puts this morning. Just a little net under the flying trapeze that seems to be Apple.

Theory:  The board meeting on February 24 is now seen as the absolute, for sure, can’t miss venue when a dividend will be announced. If it isn’t, we drop. If it is announced and isn’t enough, we drop…for a while. Sell the news.

If it is announced and it is goldilocks type of announcement and we explode upwards into March, the rest of my portfolio and spreads do just fine…..

Seems February 24 is now Ground Zero

I have March 17th for the board meeting.  Are you referring to the shareholder meeting which is scheduled for February 23rd?

capablanca - 07 February 2012 03:48 PM

There are advantages to having English be your 2nd language. 

None of this changes my thinking though.  I want to buy protection when it is this cheap.  And I want to be totally long going into the board mtg.

English is my first language.  2nd language is my mother tongue.  I barely passed English exam but score As for all other subjects.  Scored nearly full marks for maths exams and had represented school in inter-school maths competition.  Didn’t do well in mother tongue too, language is my weakness.

capablanca - 07 February 2012 04:00 PM

Red Shirted Ensign - 07 February 2012 03:48 PM

Hmmm. I bought march 465 puts this morning. Just a little net under the flying trapeze that seems to be Apple.

Theory:  The board meeting on February 24 is now seen as the absolute, for sure, can’t miss venue when a dividend will be announced. If it isn’t, we drop. If it is announced and isn’t enough, we drop…for a while. Sell the news.

If it is announced and it is goldilocks type of announcement and we explode upwards into March, the rest of my portfolio and spreads do just fine…..

Seems February 24 is now Ground Zero

I have March 17th for the board meeting.  Are you referring to the shareholder meeting which is scheduled for February 23rd?

Sorry, yes, the shareholder meeting. The Board can meet by special call earlier or later, of course. I just think if something does not happen at the shareholder’s meeting, we have a dissappointment

I’m pretty sure he is.

Hopefully by March we’ll be in the iPad 3 zone.

AAPL FOUR-HOUR CHART (with my notes):

The chart says: “Gone Parabolic.  Come back later.”

lovemyipad - 08 February 2012 08:08 PM

The chart says: “Gone Parabolic.  Come back later.”

Good call.

There’s something about a linear price ramp that doesn’t quit that whispers to you.  Even when you’re a technicals Luddite like me.

From Seeking Alpha…

Bespoke Investment Group:

“With the stock now above $490 per share, Apple is currently trading more than 2.5 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average. Looking back over the last two years, there have been three other periods where the stock got this overbought on a short-term basis (red dots). The stock did see modest pullbacks following these overbought readings, but it was nothing more than a small bump on the road of its longer term rally.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/354981-aapl-s-morning-rally-all-of-gmcr

I wonder which of the three past periods the next couple of months will resemble?

Anyone care to comment on this:

http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2012/02/10/note-to-clients-apple-aapl-gasp-climax-top-market-action-and-more/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR+(The+Disciplined+Investor)

On that note… A good example of this is what has been going on with Apple of late. The stock looks to be approaching a final gasp breakout – also known as an exhaustion gap. Often times, when this appears it is a sign that an uptrend may be ready for a pause or near its completion.
In the language of candle patterns, there is a gap up, then a small move (higher or lower the next day) and then a reversal of trend by the third day. This is known as the Evening Star.

.
. .
Since August, there have been several bullish runs, all ending with a high volume bullish bar. Often there is a final gasp, a pause and then reversal. Will the same happen here? One thing is clear; today’s action can be defined as a classical parabolic move. We will have to see what plays out over the next few days to know for sure. But, if I were to look at historical reference of this pattern, I would have to say that this is getting very close to a blow-off top condition. (Note: We sold 20% of the Apple position very close to today’s top for a healthy profit)

Nevyn,

When emotions become extreme, price reverses.  At the bottom, extreme despair, price rebounces.  At the top, extreme exuberance, price declines.  Is emotion extreme yet?  No good way of measuring extreme emotion*, make a judgement call.  Is easier to compute celestial movement than predicting what people would do.

*Some ways are VIX, put-call ratio, RSI, stochastic, ...

Big Al - 10 February 2012 08:28 AM

From Seeking Alpha…

Bespoke Investment Group:

“With the stock now above $490 per share, Apple is currently trading more than 2.5 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average. Looking back over the last two years, there have been three other periods where the stock got this overbought on a short-term basis (red dots). The stock did see modest pullbacks following these overbought readings, but it was nothing more than a small bump on the road of its longer term rally.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/354981-aapl-s-morning-rally-all-of-gmcr

I wonder which of the three past periods the next couple of months will resemble?

The first two (Sept. ‘10, Jan ‘11) had drops of about 5-6%, which would equate to a drop to about 470; the last one (July/August ‘11) represented a drop of about 12%, and a stock price of about 440.  Keep in mind that the July/August drop was due to the craziness in the markets (i.e., extreme volatility) after Congress dropped the ball on increasing the debt ceiling in early August.

The other thing to keep in mind is that in all 3 cases, the 50 day moving average seemed to provide some support.  The 50 day now is around 420ish.

iPad, what are the charts reporting now?

Seems to me if the market continues to run out of gas, AAPL will be taking a breather as well, maybe even a correction.

Of course, on the basis of price the trend is still UP.  But it’s not Wednesday-“obvious”, if I’m saying that right.

Mav, short-term too many mixed signals in this parabolic territory.  Stick with: “UP, until proven otherwise.”  Any kind of reversal AT A BARE MINIMUM includes: giving up the day’s gains by the close.  Still, we have to be very careful in prematurely calling (or positioning for) temporary tops, because it could be consolidation before another leg up.

Long-term (weekly/monthly charts): strong UP