Weekend Updates

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    Posted: 13 January 2012 08:31 PM

    Like always, let’s keep it civil. 

    It was a very quiet week for AAPL.  At just under 420 the stock is set up nicely for at least stability leading up to earnings.

    Here’s a WSJ article that I find a mixed bag, but worthy of discussion.
    Also, it’s got an interview with Tim Cook:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204409004577158764211274708.html?KEYWORDS=vascellaro

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2012 09:21 PM #1

    I think Apple has held up very well this week. It was expected that once we bounced through 426 we might come back for a breather. And, we did set a new all time closing high so, as Bill Murray says in the classic Caddyshack, “we got that going for us..”.

    Consideing Europe being Europe, mildly disappointing jobless claims,  JPM earnings, etc. etc. (the world is not a great place) being 1.7% off our all time high as the week ends is fine with me.

    Basically ten days to earnings…..and what I now believe will be stellar guidance for Q2…..

    Next week is up! :innocent:

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2012 09:31 PM #2

    Try to guess the significance of 333,333 as it pertains to Apple…  (without peeking).

    If my math is correct (30 million divided by about 90 days), that is the avg number of iPhones Apple has to sell every day in order to sell 30 million in one quarter.

    One-third of a million EVERY day for three months straight.

    I think the immensity of the numbers is just too much prevent the bubbled headed beach blondes who come on at 5 to inanely say,  “Apple botching the China release clearly shows that they need to make more phones or possibly release the iPhone simultaneously in China.”

    With the $100 billion (wasn’t that the number Horace posted?) that Apple has set aside this year to increase production, we can safely assume that Apple will soon be able to do more than 333,333 a day.

    Probably 666,666 by next year. Will they sell 60 million in one quarter next year?

    333,333 Every single day of Oct., Nov. and December.

    Then, can we presume that they can sell in China every one they make in Jan., Feb. and March?

    I think Apple and Tim Cook deserve a solid tip of the cap. Great Freakin’ job to do this in the quarter following Steve Jobs’ death.

    I’m not big on excessive executive compensation, but if we used a percentage of value created to determine CEO pay, it’s no question that Tim Cook is Earth’s LOWEST paid CEO.

    And Apple’s revenue generated per employee is far higher than the next closest tech company.  Guess who is lowest?

    So, here’s my weekend tip of the hat to Cook and Company.  333,333 iPhones every day for 3 months straight… That’s IMPRESSIVE!

    And the bubble-headed-beach blondes blast “BOTCHED.” ...  Bitches.

    [ Edited: 13 January 2012 09:40 PM by jjjz ]

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Posted: 13 January 2012 09:34 PM #3

    14 weeks in this quarter -

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2012 09:38 PM #4

    roni - 14 January 2012 01:34 AM

    14 weeks in this quarter -

    That extra week gives us 2,333,331 more iPhones.

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
  • Posted: 13 January 2012 09:39 PM #5

    In the last six weeks, or so, we have gone almost straight up from $360 to $420.  A week long sideways rest to consolidate a week and a half before our blow out earnings is not a bad thing.  I’m not a technical trader, but I’m sure there must be tech support for this sentiment.

    I was particularly concerned that if we continued up beyond $440 prior to earnings that we might have a talking heads reason to kill the joy following the earnings release.  I can hear Maria B saying it right now, “Well, of course the $25.00 earnings surprise has already been built into the share price.”

    If we stay within this $420-$430 range next week we will be free to run like the devil following the earnings release, ifs the number comes out anything like the numbers DawnTrader or Zaky have thrown out there.  If TC announces a dividend during the call, then all bets are on for a serious ride up.

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2012 10:40 PM #6

    I’m in bed in my jammies already…  Usually the prospect of a three-day weekend makes me miss the market—I know, I’m strange that way—but this weekend, I could use the sleep! smile

    Technically, this retrace looks similar to that at the end of December.  We had our three-day weekend, then gapped up when the market next opened.  Will that pattern repeat? 

    Last year this time, we had SJ’s medical leave announcement.  I had *just* bought calls, and it was the first time I had ever lost that much money that quickly…in retrospect, poor entry and poor exit…luckily, by October when I landed in the same predicament (poor entry once again), I’d learned enough about trading to tap dance my way out of it.  This time, I’ve already taken profits for all JAN’12 positions, and the next closest expiration is APR’12; and I have only spreads, which best suit my risk/reward profile.

    RE: broader markets…  At the moment, I would say Chicken Little remains on extended holiday and has not checked his messages about S&P downgrading France, the latest with Greece, the less-than-stellar US economic reports, etc.etc.  The Rally Monkey’s having fun crapping all over Chicken Little’s office in his absence.  How long this continues is anyone’s guess…

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2012 11:07 PM #7

    Do you think it is safe to say that Apple will report April Earnings before options expiry on the 21st?

    The last three years they reported in the third full week of April… Tue the 20th in 2010, Wed the 20th in 2011 and Wed the 22 in 2009. 

    So maybe this year on Wednesday, April 18?

    It seems investors need to know this ASAP in regards to the interplay between earnings and options expiry.  I feel more comfortable with April options that expire after earnings.

    Fiscal Year 2011
    Oct 18, 2011 Apple Reports Q4 2011 Results
    July 19, 2011 Apple Reports Q3 2011 Results
    Apr 20, 2011 Apple Reports Q2 2011 Results
    Jan 18, 2011 Apple Reports Q1 2011 Results
    Fiscal Year 2010
    Oct 18, 2010 Apple Reports Q4 2010 Results
    Jul 20, 2010 Apple Reports Q3 2010 Results
    Apr 20, 2010 Apple Reports Q2 2010 Results
    Jan 25, 2010 Apple Reports Q1 2010 Results
    Fiscal Year 2009
    Jul 21, 2009 Apple Reports Q3 2009 Results
    Apr 22, 2009 Apple Reports Q2 2009 Results
    Jan 21, 2009 Apple Reports Q1 2009 Result

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
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    Posted: 13 January 2012 11:21 PM #8

    Well, of course you do.  Hey, there’s always May options, right?  :D

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 14 January 2012 01:50 AM #9

    My April $425’s will be gone long before April expiry

         
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    Posted: 14 January 2012 06:18 AM #10

    jjjz - 14 January 2012 03:07 AM

    Do you think it is safe to say that Apple will report April Earnings before options expiry on the 21st?

    The last three years they reported in the third full week of April… Tue the 20th in 2010, Wed the 20th in 2011 and Wed the 22 in 2009. 

    So maybe this year on Wednesday, April 18?

    I’m interested in this date too, for the AAPL Pack trip to Las Vegas.

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    Use your powers for good.

         
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    Posted: 14 January 2012 02:03 PM #11

    I like the vision Mike has in this article taking Amazon on at it’s own game.

    http://www.cultofmac.com/140653/apples-war-on-amazon-starts-thursday/

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    Tim Cook: iPad is 91% of all tablet web traffic. I don’t know what these other tablets are doing.

         
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    Posted: 14 January 2012 04:07 PM #12

    Earnings and Eurozone and Easing—oh, my!

         
  • Posted: 14 January 2012 04:17 PM #13

    (moved to other thread)

    [ Edited: 14 January 2012 04:32 PM by 2 Cents ]      
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    Posted: 14 January 2012 05:37 PM #14

    roni - 14 January 2012 05:50 AM

    My April $425’s will be gone long before April expiry

    I mean this without a shred of sarcasm (rare for me), my stress level has dropped dramatically since I stopped buying calls. ITM spreads go up to the very last day, as does selling options.

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 14 January 2012 07:07 PM #15

    lovemyipad - 14 January 2012 08:07 PM

    Earnings and Eurozone and Easing—oh, my!

    About six weeks ago Mr. Market wrote a letter to the Fed about QE3 buying securitized mortgages or we’ll kill the economy. In good faith Mr. Market has been buying bank stock but stands at the ready to kill the market if the letter isn’t followed explicitly.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.